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Adapting to climate change. Jonathan Suk 30 June 2010. Drivers of emerging infectious diseases. Main categories of drivers associated with emergence and re-emergence of human pathogens. Rank* Driver. 1 Changes in land use or agricultural practices.

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Adapting to climate change

Adapting to climate change

Jonathan Suk

30 June 2010


Drivers of emerging infectious diseases
Drivers of emerging infectious diseases

Main categories of drivers associated with emergence and re-emergence of human pathogens

Rank* Driver

1 Changes in land use or agricultural practices

2 Changes in human demographics and society

3 Poor population health, e.g. HIV, malnutrition

4 Hospitals and medial procedures

5 Pathogen evolution, e.g. antimicrobial drug resistance, increased virulence

6 Contamination of food sources or water supplies

7 International travel

8 Failure of public health programmes

9 International trade

10 Climate change

* Ranked by the number of pathogen species associated with them (most to least).

Source: Woolhouse, M.E.J. & Gowtage-Sequeria, S. Emerging Infectious Diseases 2005, Vol. 11(12): 1842-1847.



Vector borne diseases pathogens that may be linked to climate change in europe
Vector-borne diseases/pathogens that may be linked to climate change in Europe

*Disease not currently prevalent in continental EU region


Current distribution of climate change in EuropeAedes albopictus in the EU

Source: Schaffner, F. Development of Aedesalbopictus risk maps. TigerMaps project. ECDC, Stockholm 2008. (Forthcoming.)


Potential establishment under climate change scenarios
Potential establishment under climate climate change in Europechange scenarios


Climate change at ecdc
Climate change at ECDC climate change in Europe

  • Vulnerability and risk assessments

  • International workshop on Environmental Change and Infectious Disease

  • International workshop on Linking Environmental and Epidemiologic Data

  • Risk assessment of vector-borne diseases in the EU (V-borne)

  • Impact of climate change on food- and water-borne (FWB) diseases in Europe

  • Risk maps for Aedesalbopictus

  • Risk maps for dengue fever and aedesaegypti

  • Adaptation strategies

  • Chikungunya communication toolkit

  • Adaptation and vulnerability toolkit

  • Response

  • ECDC/WHO risk assessment of chikungunya in northern Italy


1 vector surveillance vbornet
1. Vector Surveillance: VBORNET climate change in Europe

  • Objectives

  • To establish a network of expertise in entomology across the EU

  • To obtain data on vectors of primary concern to health in the EU (mosquitos, ticks)

  • To promote EU-wide harmonization of standards and methods for vector surveillance


2 environmental monitoring

Surveillance climate change in Europe

Direct exposures(heat stroke, drowning…)

CO2

CO2

CO2

Indirect exposures(vector-borne diseases, other infectious diseases)

Climate change

Environmental consequences

Socio-economic impacts(homelessness, refugees…)

time

2. Environmental monitoring

Health outcomes


3 adaptation handbook
3. Adaptation handbook climate change in Europe

  • Background

  • Climate change as a threat multiplier – addressing climate-sensitive diseases should also benefit public health today

  • Objectives

  • To assist EU Member States to conduct national and regional vulnerability assessments as concerns climate change and communicable diseases

  • To develop comprehensive advice for ECDC and EU Member States on how to implement regionally targeted adaptation strategies to mitigate against future communicable disease transmission due to climate change.


Pragmatic approach
Pragmatic approach climate change in Europe

  • Identify baseline description (epidemiologic, socio-economic, current disease burden), and note it is changing alongside climate

  • Identify climate-sensitive diseases most relevant for a given region, and then weighing options for action

  • Identify climatic drivers (rainfall, drought, temperature) most relevant to these diseases

  • Develop adaptation strategies with future projections in mind, and engage other sectors where possible

  • Strategy needs to be evidence-based, but does not necessarily need to involve sophisticated modelling


Assessment process
Assessment Process climate change in Europe

Aim, demarcation

Organisational structure:

Working group, reference group, etc

Base-line description

Climate, diseases, vulnerability factors

Iterative process

Assessment:

Vulnerability and impacts

Quality control

Base-line description

Adaptation measures

Assessment:

Adaptive strategies and measures

Policy decision

Follow-up/ monitoring:

Impacts and measures


Identifying priorities for action
Identifying priorities for action climate change in Europe

Probability of an outbreak/strength of climate change-disease relationship

Weighted significance of climate change on the transmission of a specific infectious disease in an area

High

Medium

Low

High

Medium

Low

Low

Medium

High

Severity of consequence for society risk group


Thank you. climate change in Europe

[email protected]


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