Climate change adaptation adapting to change
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Climate change adaptation: adapting to change. Mark Broadmeadow Forestry Commission. Why do we need to adapt?. ‘We’ve been around for millennia, so why have we only got ten years to save the planet?’. 1961-90. 2050s Low. 2050s High. 2080s High. Climate matching - Brechfa. *.

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Climate change adaptation: adapting to change

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Climate change adaptation adapting to change

Climate change adaptation: adapting to change

Mark Broadmeadow

ForestryCommission


Why do we need to adapt

Why do we need to adapt?

‘We’ve been around for millennia, so why have we only got ten years to save the planet?’


Climate matching brechfa

1961-90

2050s Low

2050s High

2080s High

Climate matching - Brechfa

*

Forests and climate change: A convenient truth?


The rate of change

The rate of change

feet per day

Forests and climate change: A convenient truth?


Esc suitability change sitka spruce

ESC suitability change: Sitka spruce

2050 Low

2080 High

2050 High

Forests and climate change: A convenient truth?


Changing distribution of ash

Current

distribution

Climate space

lost

Climate space

retained

Climate space

gained

Changing distribution of ash

2020s

1961-90

2080s

2050s

ECI/BRANCH project: www.branchproject.org.

Forests and climate change: A convenient truth?


Esc suitability for nvc woodland

Lowland ash

Unsuitable

Yew

Upland ash

Wet woodland

Beech woodland

Lowland oak

Alder woodland

Acid oak

Upland oak

Upland oak/birch

ESC suitability for NVC woodland

1961-90

2050s Low

2050s High

Forests and climate change: A convenient truth?


Unforeseen and extreme events

Unforeseen and extreme events

Forests and climate change: A convenient truth?


Don t forget there are opportunities

Don’t forget there are opportunities

Forests and climate change: A convenient truth?


What do we want to protect

What do we want to protect?


Climate change adaptation adapting to change

Productive capacity

Functional ecosystems

Recreation and well-

being

Urban treescape

Functional landscapes

Landscape quality

Forests and climate change: A convenient truth?


Adaptation don t put all the eggs

Adaptation - don’t put all the eggs……..

Forests and climate change: A convenient truth?


What are the options

What are the options?


Make existing ecosystems more resilient

Make existing ecosystems more resilient

  • Manage existing woodlands better - promote regeneration and reduce other pressures

    • deer management

    • fire management plans

    • wind hazard management

  • Enlarge existing woodlands

  • Create habitat networks to encourage natural adaptation/evolutionary processes

  • Relax designations to reflect likely changes in community structure that will still form functional woodland ecosystems

Forests and climate change: A convenient truth?


Changing species range beech

baseline

2050s Low

2050s High

2080s High

Changing species range: beech

Forests and climate change: A convenient truth?


Enhancing resilience of native species

Enhancing resilience of native species

  • Redistribute native species within the site/landscape/country - ie amend species choice

  • Diversify species composition

    • mixed species stands, including for commercial timber production

    • diversification within wood/forest/landscape

  • Use seed origins from more southerly regions

Forests and climate change: A convenient truth?


Utilising the available genetic resource

Utilising the available genetic resource

Grimsthorpe - England

Slovenia

Dunnottar - Scotland

  • Encourage regeneration and natural selection

  • ‘Provenance matching’

    • Oceanic climate

    • Frost risk >2 degrees south

  • ‘Portfolio approach’

Forests and climate change: A convenient truth?


Non native species

Non-native species

  • Productive plantations

    • commercial timber species for which we have (limited) silvicultural knowledge (Nothofagus; Eucalyptus; black walnut; pinaster pine).

  • New native and amenity woodland

    • small component of native species dominated mixture;

    • main component of 'new ecosystems’;

    • from continental Europe - where they are components of functional ecosystems alongside our native species;

    • careful consideration required of impacts on native species and woodlands

      • hybridisation

      • pests and diseases

      • invasiveness

But.......evidence not sufficient and unlikely to be necessary in Wales

Forests and climate change: A convenient truth?


Species choice in the urban environment

Species choice in the urban environment

Forests and climate change: A convenient truth?


Alternative approaches to management liss

Alternative approaches to management: LISS

  • Species diversity

  • Structural diversity

  • Regeneration capacity

    • regular regeneration provides ‘insurance’

    • less hostile environment

    • encourages natural selection

  • Windfirm?

    • If not, next cohort present Encourage regeneration and natural selection‘

Forests and climate change: A convenient truth?


Protecting the genetic resource

Protecting the genetic resource

  • Create refugia for species under threat

  • Create refugia for identifiable genotypes/races under threat - conserve genetic diversity

  • Use arboreta/collections as global repository of genetic material

Forests and climate change: A convenient truth?


Barriers to effective adaptation

Barriers to effective adaptation

  • Uncertainty

  • The level and rate of change predicted

  • Pests and diseases

  • Extreme events

  • Some current concepts of nature conservation

  • An understanding of new assemblages

  • Competing policies

  • Complacency

Forests and climate change: A convenient truth?


Conclusions appropriate actions

Conclusions: appropriate actions

  • There are options we can take now

  • The sector needs to act soon to ensure a resource for future generations

  • We should only implement no or low regret measures

  • Diversification insures against uncertainty

  • Some higher risk actions may be prudent

  • Above all, we should not panic........

  • .........but take the opportunities climate change presents

Forests and climate change: A convenient truth?


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