Adapting to Climate Change

Adapting to Climate Change TACC Training Module 4 1

Objectives of the Module • Raise awareness of the importance of adaptation in preparing for and coping with climate change • Introduce key stages of effective adaptation planning • Highlight the importance of multi-level governance in adaptation actions • Introduce international support programmes and tools to support adaptation planning Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

Outline • Scope: the 3 guiding principles • Vulnerability assessment • Impact assessment • Adaptation options • Ecosystem based and community based adaptation • Some examples • Funds, guidance and support Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

What is Climate Change Adaptation? “Adaptation is an adjustment in natural or humans systems in response to actual or expected climate stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities” Parry et al ,2007 (IPCC) Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

First principle Since maintaining healthy and resilient ecosystems, achieving development priorities and improving the quality of life are as important as adaptation to climate change, it is the combination of promoting conservation and restoration of ecosystems, development choices, adaptation actions and capacities that will allow us to effectively address the climate change. Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

Second principle Understanding the linkages between the impacts of a changing climate and their implications at the local level is more complex than is captured in spatial, regional and global climate models. Participation of local partners is necessary to facilitate integration of climate impact information with local development knowledge to create pathways that promote resilience and adaptation to climate change. Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

Third principle Understanding adaptation as part of ecosystem management and development requires balancing the focus of the biophysical risks associated with climate change with specific risks and opportunities in order to address issues such as ecosystem and human well-being, capacity and long-term development. Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

Steps towards adaptation options Step1 Capacity & Institutional assessment Step 2 Vulnerability assessment Impact assessment projections and models Step 3 Developing Adaptation options – investigating Step 4 Step 5 Making the options relevant and useful to the capacity and institutional needs

Step 1: Stakeholders and needs The assessment of vulnerability at the local and regional levels is strongly centered on the involvement and knowledge of a diversity of stakeholders Key stakeholders may include community members, policy-makers, researchers, experts, civil society and non-governmental organizations Stakeholders’ involvement also helps in empowering local communities and decision-makers as they can see themselves as valuable sources of knowledge for developing responses to climate change Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

Identify relevant stakeholders They are affected by climate change and/or are living in areas of high vulnerability that could be exaggerated by progressing climate change. They have the information, resources or expertise required for climate change impact and vulnerability assessment, policy formulation and strategy implementation. They have control or an influence on key mechanisms for adaptation and strategy formulation, implementation and communication. Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

Step 2: Defining vulnerability – the present People and communities are experiencing a number of threats such as climate change, environmental degradation and social and economic changes Impacts of these challenges interact and cumulatively increase the vulnerability of local and regional areas and populations Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

Vulnerability to Climate Change Vulnerability could be described as the degree to which human - environment systems are susceptible to, or unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes. It could include for example: low-lying islands or coastal cities; impacts on agricultural lands, forced migration; or the mechanisms causing these impacts, e.g., disintegration of the West Antarctic ice sheet Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

Vulnerability assessment The departure point is the question: “vulnerable to what?” In the context of climate change, vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude and rate of climate variation to which a system is exposed, people’s sensitivityand their adaptive capacity Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

Exercise 1: Felakuti case • In the appropriate boxes, please state: • The socio-economic and environmental pressures on the district of Felakuti • 2. State the trends due to climate change • 3. State the impacts due to climate change and the non climatic impatcs • 4. What are the available capacities to cope with threats? Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

Climatic and non-climatic variables Example: Human health vulnerabilities Outcomes of Concerns: More frequent geographically widespread epidemics of infectious and waterborne disease Climatic Drivers: Climatic changes increase the area and number of disease vectors and more frequent heavy rainfall and drought events could disrupt water supply and sanitation Non-climatic drivers: Severely degraded health care system; declining immunity, nutritional and health status of population; high poverty rates; poor programs for disease surveillance, vector control, and disease prevention In: Leary and Kulkarni, 2007 Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

Vulnerability in the context of climate change Source: Allen consulting, 2005 (modified) Exposure Sensitivity Driver / Pressure State Potential impacts Adaptive capacity Impact Response VULNERABILITY Adaptation responses

Example Agricultural vulnerability to climate change is described in terms of not only exposureto elevated temperatures, but also crop yield sensitivityto the elevated temperatures, impacts on crop, and the adaptive capacity of farmers to adapt to the effects of that sensitivity, e.g., by planting more heat-resistant cultivars or by ceasing to plant their current crop altogether. Exposure Sensitivity Potential impacts Adaptive capacity Vulnerability Allen consulting and Schroter et al., 2005,

Monitoring vulnerability Vulnerability can be monitored by identifying indicators and indices, a few examples: State and trends frequency of natural events (eg. floods) Impacts and sensitivity Population affected by natural disasters Infrastructure, Assets Diseases and health care delivery Indices Human development index, environmental vulnerability index, coastal risk index, social vulnerability index Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

Step 3: Impact assessment – the future The guiding questions to investigate Impacts of future climate change can be: • What are the changes in climate variables estimated by different climate model simulations? • What are the estimated impacts on the resources? • What are the potential consequences of estimated impacts relevant to designing future development activities, capacities and adaptation strategies? Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

Impacts of climate change and their assessment The climate change impact assessments are based on scenarios of projections of future climate change and are presented as changes in temperature, precipitation, sea level rise etc. Using available information and data, it is possible to analyze the recent changes and trends in climate parameters. Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

Impact assessment – what is used? • Global Circulation Models (GCM) and Regional Circulation Models (RCM) are used with currently 50km resolution • The projections are uncertain as it is a highly complex, inter-dependent web, with possible tipping points that we are not understanding yet. • Scenarios – official IPCC are the SRES emissions scenarios used for projections • KEY question: what are the human and environmental consequences? Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

Step 4: Developing adaptation options Objective: mainstreaming adaptation options into urban planning Key characteristics of Adaptation: “an adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities” (IPCC, 2007; Adger et al)

Types and examples of adaptations

Key characteristics of adaptation It involves a range of measures directed at reducing vulnerability to a range of climatic stimuli (changes in means, variability, and extremes), but also taking into account other non-climatic vulnerabilities so actions on climate change won’t create or exaggerate these other vulnerabilities; It shares common features with risk management; It is a collaborative process; Adaptation cannot avoid all impacts of climate change; therefore, is no substitute for mitigation of climate change; Adaptation options should be designed as proactive measures and in this way help communities to create responses that prepare them for future climatic, policy and development challenges. Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

Developing adaptation options We must aim for actions that will get us onto resilient, low emission development pathway, which operates at two levels: • The large collective decisions about structural issues which will determine the framework within which we adapt and mitigate 2) The cultural, social and psychological dimensions of values, lifestyle and consumption behaviour Robinson, et al. 2009 Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

Developing adaptation options • Going back to the exercise on “future” State – develop responses to the future state. • Eg of future State could be : • Increase in minimal temperatures • Increased rainfall in spring and autumn • Increased droughts and floods • Increase epidemics of malaria, dengue and encephalitis • What could be potential responses? • How would you prioritise these responses?

Adaptation Prioritization There are a number of options available for adapting to expected climate impacts. Depending on, for example, available capacities, cultural, social and economic preferences, and urgency for actions adaptation options need to be evaluated and prioritized. Prioritizing between adaptation options based on criteria that recognize the importance of sustainable development also helps to realize synergies and create long-term adaptation options. Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

Prioritising adaptation options

Scoring the criteria

Example of criteria for prioritisation Using multi-criteria assessment or simpler options can be classified in categories such as : A = Urgent adaptation options which can be done by municipalities themselves B = Urgent adaptation options for which municipalities needed assistance from the Government; options will be then allocated to the responsible ministries C = Options that provide a non-regret options that help to address problems that they need to be dealt anyway D = Adaptation options that were less important/urgent E = Adaptation options for which there was no need or willingness to implement Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

Avoiding Mal-adaptation Source: Wordpress • Mal-adaptation is…. • Business as usual development that inadvertently increases vulnerability to climate risk • Adaptation action that does not succeed in reducing but increases vulnerability • Both aspects of mal-adaptation may have significant costs Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

Step 5: Costing the adaptation option There are two main categories of costs: 1) The cost & benefit of : a. the adaptation option b. non- action or delayed action c. Maladaptation d. Mitigation benefits 2) The cost & benefit that the ecosystem services provide: Responding to policy needs: Economic valuation of adaptation and ecosystem services is often greatly needed by decision makers. Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

Mainstreaming adaptation Climate change is not just an environmental issue – it is a development issue. Mainstreaming includes compromises and tradeoffs among competing local, national and/or regional interests and priorities. Finally, climate change adaptation mainstreaming processes should account for sustainable development goals of the country at hand as well as all elements, including local/indigenous coping strategies.

closing the cycle – some considerations • The importance of developing adaptation options that can be translated into a concrete management plan and preferably costed • The importance of aligning the adaptation plan to the National Communications, National Adaptation Plans of Action, and the municipal development strategies • The importance of presenting the information in a way that is useful to the policy makers: communication!

Importance of Multi-Level Adaptation Planning (Vertical Integration) • Involvement of multiple levels of governance in development planning requires co-ordination • Division of competence between national and sub-national level varies among countries • National, sub-national and local adaptation action needs to be mutually supportive • Action should be taken at the most appropriate level • Subsidiary principle • encourages action at the lowest level of governance whenever possible • recognizes the importance for some action at higher level Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

Evaluating the Success of Adaptation • Evaluating success of adaptation creates challenges • Long time horizon of measures • Climate scenarios may be different than expected • Need to wait for ex post evaluation (e.g. measure to adapt to infrequent event can only be evaluated if event occurred) • Possible to evaluate • extent a policy objective was achieved (e.g. reduction of vulnerability) • if anticipated co-benefits were achieved • Monitoring and evaluation may help in spotting mal-adaptation Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

Some more examples…

Considering Ecosystems and Ecosystem-based Adaptation • Use of biodiversity and ecosystem services to support an overall adaptation strategy • Aims to maintain and increase the resilience and services of ecosystems • Generates social, economic and cultural co-benefits (e.g. conservation of biodiversity, preservation of traditional knowledge systems) • Has climate change mitigation potential (e.g. sequestration of carbon through healthy forests, wetlands, and coastal ecosystems) • EBA is cross-cutting and likely to involve different levels of governance Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

Examples of Ecosystem-Based Adaptation • Maintaining or restoring mangroves, coral reefs and watershed vegetation reduces vulnerability to storm surge, rising sea levels and changing precipitation patterns • Enhancing availability of natural resources as a source of food important to livelihoods • Supporting indigenous peoples to enhance traditional knowledge and management practices in light of a changing climate condition • Maintaining connectivity of ecosystems, e.g. through corridors allowing migration of animals in response to a climate change stress Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

Community-based Adaptation (CBA) • CBA involves community-driven processes to consider and cope with climate change • Balances climate considerations with other factors (e.g. unemployment, conflict) • Draws upon community knowledge (e.g. past strategies to cope with shocks) • Takes into account local priorities, needs, knowledge, and capacities Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

The Case of Rainfall in Kitui, Kenya • Exposure • The already arid area of Kitui, likely to receive less water in the future • Rains are no longer reliable and droughts may last longer • Sensitivity • Less drinking water available • Reduced crops due to lack of irrigation • Loss of income and increased poverty • Adaptive Capacity • Travelling large distances to collect fresh water not viable • Moving of population to other areas not possible • Technology not available for digging a deep well Source: Travel Pod Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

The Case of Coastal Zone Management in the Netherlands Source: Free Photo.com • Exposure • The Netherlands are already below sea level with dykes holding back the North Sea • Increased sea level increase risks of coastal inundation and erosion • Existing dykes may no longer be effective against higher sea levels • Sensitivity • A breach of Dykes would result in • Loss of land • Damage to crops • Damage to habitats and communities • Adaptive Capacity • Funds available to implement adaption measures (e.g. increase height of dams) • Skills and equipment available Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

The Case of Tropical Storms in Jamaica Source: USA Today • Exposure • The Caribbean already exposed to tropical storms • Storms projected to increase in intensity and frequency • Sensitivity • Increase of intensive storms may result in additional damage to crops • Soil erosion can follow damage to farm land • Loss of income and food security • Adaptive Capacity • Local community have some resources to deal with impacts • Limited technology and physical resources to prevent future damage • Availability of labour and some financial resources Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

The Case of Mainstreaming Adaptation in China’s Agricultural Sector • Climate change traditionally not included in China’s agricultural planning processes • Project initiated in 2004 to integrate climate change adaptation into China’s Agricultural Development Programme • Supporting measures include • Capacity development • Monitoring and evaluation • Partners involved • Government of China • State Office for Comprehensive Agricultural Development • National Development and Reform Commission • Ministry of Finance • World Bank/Global Environment Facility (GEF) Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

UNFCCC-GEF Funding to Support Adaptation: A Snapshot • Least Development Countries Fund (LDCF) • Address the vulnerability and low adaptive capacity of of Least Developed Countries • Supported by National Adaptation Programmes of Action (NAPA) • Special Climate Change Fund (SCCF) • Supports adaptation, technology transfer, and sectoral strategies • Addresses special needs of developing countries for long-term adaptation with priorities given to health, agriculture, water and vulnerable ecosystems • The Adaptation Fund • Funded through voluntary contributions and proceedings generated through the Clean Development Mechanisms • Open to Parties to the Kyoto Protocol Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

Guidance on Adaptation • UNDP Screening Tools and Guidelines to Support the Mainstreaming of Climate Change Adaptation into Development Assistance – A Stock-taking Report (2010) • UNFCCC Guidelines for the Preparation of National Adaptation Programmes of Action (2002) • OECD Guidance on Integrating Climate Change Adaptation into Development Co-operation (2009) • USAID Climate Change Adaptation Manual • UNEP VIA methodology (presented in this presentation) Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

Support Services and Platforms • GEF-UNDP Adaptation Learning Mechanism (http://www.adaptationlearning.net) • WeAdapt (http://wikiadapt.org) • UN CC:Learn (uncclearn.org) • www.uneporg/ieacp/climate • Johara.bellali@unep.org Source: Sussex communigate Territorial Approach to Climate Change - Phase 1

Adapting to Climate Change