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Arley Johnson Executive Director Advocates for The Other America. ‘I hear Nixon’s a hell of a poker. Political Outlook. Political Outlook. “ Taxmageddon ” looming in December Taxpayers face $494 billion tax increase on 1/1/13 Debt ceiling increase needed FY13 gridlock

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Arley johnson executive director advocates for the other america

Arley Johnson

Executive Director

Advocates for The Other America

‘I hear Nixon’s a hell of a poker

Political Outlook


Political outlook
Political Outlook

  • “Taxmageddon” looming in December

  • Taxpayers face $494 billion tax increase on 1/1/13

  • Debt ceiling increase needed

  • FY13 gridlock

  • Future crisis of federal government facing default unless entitlements are reformed

  • “Doomsday” Commission ultimately becomes only way to resolve gridlock


Political outlook1
Political Outlook

  • House of Representatives

    • Recent History: Democratic control for 40 years (1955-1995), Republican Revolution (1995-2007), then two waves (2006/2008, 54 seat change and 2010, 64 seat change).

    • Current Makeup: 242 Republicans, 190 Democrats, 3 vacancies (all D seats). 25 seat flip needed for Democrats to retake House.

    • Cook Political Report: 54 seats are Lean or Toss Up (22 D / 31 R). (as of 5/3/12)


Political outlook2
Political Outlook

  • Senate

  • Current Makeup: 53 Democrats (including Independents); 47 Republicans. 4 seat flip (assuming Obama victory) needed for Republican takeover.

  • 33 Members in Cycle: 23 D / 10 R

  • 12 Open Seats: 7 D / 5 R (incl. Lugar primary loss)

  • Cook Political Report: 14 Seats are Lean or Toss Up (as of 5/3/12)


Political outlook3
Political Outlook

  • Congress

  • Both parties will tell you they have a path to keep or retake power of both the House and Senate.

  • Effect of Redistricting?

  • 94 Freshmen House Members (85 R / 9 D) up for reelection. Many Senators – 2006’s “majority makers” – up for first reelection.

  • Congressional Approval Rating: 14.6% (RCP Average 5/1/12)


Presidential battleground states
Presidential Battleground States

Source: Real Clear Politics as of 5/14/2012


Comparing the ryan to the white house budget
Comparing the Ryan to the White House budget

  • ·         2 trillion dollars less in tax revenue

  • ·         Spend 5.3 Trillion dollars less than White House over next decade

  • ·         16% less than W.H. on Income Security programs for poor (from food stamps to housing assistance to the earned income tax credit)

  • ·         25% less on transportation

  • ·         33% less on than “education, training, employment, social services”

  • ·         14.6% less on natural resources and environment

  • Defense

  • ·         7% less than White House

  • White House Budget:

  • http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/omb/budget/fy2013/assets/32_1.pdf

  • Ryan Budget:

  • http://budget.house.gov/uploadedfiles/chairmans_mark_fy013.pdf


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