Ray arritt dave flory bill gutowski and gene takle
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NARCCAP: Status Report and Some Preliminary Results. Ray Arritt, Dave Flory, Bill Gutowski, and Gene Takle. North America Regional Climate Change Assessment Program: Participants. Raymond Arritt, David Flory, William Gutowski, Gene Takle, Iowa State University, USA

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Ray arritt dave flory bill gutowski and gene takle

NARCCAP: Status Report and Some Preliminary Results

Ray Arritt, Dave Flory, Bill Gutowski, and Gene Takle


North america regional climate change assessment program participants

North America Regional Climate Change Assessment Program: Participants

Raymond Arritt, David Flory, William Gutowski, Gene Takle, Iowa State University, USA

Richard Jones, W. Moufouma-Okia, Hadley Centre, UK

Daniel Caya, Sébastien Biner, OURANOS, Canada

Phil Duffy, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratories, USA

Filippo Giorgi, Abdus Salam ICTP, Italy

Isaac Held, NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, USA

René Laprise, Univ. de Québec à Montréal, Canada

Ruby Leung, Y. Qian, Pacific Northwest National Laboratories, USA

Linda Mearns, Don Middleton, Doug Nychka, Phil Rasch, Tom Wigley, National Center for Atmospheric Research, USA

Ana Nunes, John Roads, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, USA

Steve Sain, Univ. of Colorado at Denver, USA

Lisa Sloan, Mark Snyder, Univ. of California at Santa Cruz, USA


Current status

Current status

Working data sets:

  • UC - Santa Cruz (RCM3 designation)

    • Longitude variable differs other models with negative longitudes for western hemisphere.  Precip and 500 mb heights through 1991.

  • PNL (mm5p and wrfp designation)

    • Two files incomplete when transferred (Ruby has been contacted). Precip and 500 mb heights through 1985. Error in interpolation for 500 mb height from WRF.

  • OURANOS (MRCC designation)

    • All files checked via checksums and are working fine.  Precip and 500 mb height through full period.


Current status1

Current status

Not Working data sets:

  • Hadley Centre (PRECIS)

    • Files provided as monthly mean values.  Not usable as submitted but able to processes after using ncdump | ncgen. Monthly output rather than 3-hour.

  • Scripps (ECPC)

    • Individual netCDF files provided for every output time step.  No internal timestamp. Variable and dimension names, etc. differ from specs. Output through 1987. (All this is straightforward to fix, except timestamp.)


Narccap plans

NARCCAP Plans

  • Phase I: 1979-2004 driven by Reanalysis 2

    • establish uncertainty in RCMs

  • Phase IIa: RCMs driven by AOGCM 20th century climate (nominally 1971-2000)

  • Phase IIb: RCMs driven by AOGCM SRES A2 scenario 2041-2070


Ray arritt dave flory bill gutowski and gene takle

The Matrix

Any changes?


Some data issues

Some data issues

  • Time coordinate: Days versus hours.

    • Recommendation: Hours would be simple integer; days may be easier for end users.

  • Bounds for coordinate variables (space and time)

    • Recommendation: Drop bounds for spatial coordinates. Keep bounds for time.

  • Include projection information in metadata (following ENSEMBLES)?

    • Recommendation: Yes. See example sent by Hadley Centre.


Some data issues1

Some data issues

  • Reporting domain: Send the entire domain to the archive or only the region inside the forcing frame (aka sponge zone)? 

    • There does not appear to be any straightforward way of subsetting for users.

    • Recommendation: Exclude forcing frame

  • Output transmittal to archive: ftp vs. mailing external hard drives (“FedEX Net”)? 

    • Recommendation: External hard drives. (Hadley Centre may prefer DLT cartridges.)


Meetings

Meetings

  • "Downscaling to local and regional scales" (IAMAS session MS016) at the IUGG Conference in Perugia, Italy 2-13 July 2007.

  • Designate a regular professional conference for NARCCAP meetings? Would help to save travel time and funds.

    • Recommendation: Fall AGU (consistent location; easy to reach). Propose a regional modeling session at each meeting; maybe a NARCCAP session at later stages.


Some preliminary results

Some preliminary results

  • Results are shown here for 1979-1985 from three RCMs.

  • Observed precip is from the CRU 0.5o data set.

    • probably underestimates precip in high terrain – need to look at other precip data sets


Analysis regions

Analysis Regions

Northern Plains: flat terrain, early summer precip maximum

Pacific Northwest: mountainous terrain, winter precip maximum


Precipitation 1979 1985

Precipitation, 1979-1985


Mean annual cycle of precipitation

Mean annual cycle of precipitation


Ray arritt dave flory bill gutowski and gene takle

January 1981 monthly mean 500 mb height

January 1980 – ENSO neutral

reanalysis


Ray arritt dave flory bill gutowski and gene takle

July 1982 monthly mean 500 mb height

reanalysis

reanalysis


500 mb heights

500 mb heights

January 1983 – strong El Niño


Narccap project timeline

NARCCAP Project Timeline

End Current GCM1

AOGCM Boundaries available

Project Start

current status

Start Current Climate GCM1

End Current and Future GCM2

End Future climate GCM1

End reanalysis

RCMs

?

1/06

6/06

9/06

12/06

6/07

12/07

12/08

current date

Time slices

Finish obs SST

Finish delta SST


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