Objective evaluation of the meso nh simulations during hibiscus troccinox troccibras
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Objective Evaluation of the Meso-NH Simulations during Hibiscus-Troccinox-Troccibras. Forecasts for the TROCCINOX campaign Three case studies: 13 Feb, 24 Feb, 3 March. J.-P Chaboureau, J.-P. Cammas, J. Duron, F. Gheusi, C. Mari, P. J. Mascart, J.-P. Pinty

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Objective Evaluation of the Meso-NH Simulations during Hibiscus-Troccinox-Troccibras

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Objective evaluation of the meso nh simulations during hibiscus troccinox troccibras

Objective Evaluation of the Meso-NH Simulations during Hibiscus-Troccinox-Troccibras

  • Forecasts for the TROCCINOX campaign

  • Three case studies: 13 Feb, 24 Feb, 3 March

J.-P Chaboureau, J.-P. Cammas, J. Duron, F. Gheusi, C. Mari, P. J. Mascart, J.-P. Pinty

Laboratoire d’Aérologie (UPS/CNRS) Toulouse, France


I forecasts for the campaign

Daily real-time runs from 27 January to 5 March 2004 posted on http://www.aero.obs-mip.fr/mesonh/troccinox

I. Forecasts for the Campaign

  • One single domain

    • horizontal grid: 100 x 100 points at 30 km resolution

    • 72 levels: from 40 m (bottom) up to 600 m (top)

  • Physics

    • turbulence: CBR TKE 1D scheme

    • convection: Bechtold’s scheme

    • microphysics: Pinty-Jabouille

    • surface: ISBA

    • radiation: ECMWF

  • Initialization/coupling with ECMWF forecasts

  • Lagrangian tracers

  • Simulated GOES-E brightness temperature (Tb)

3000 km

3000 km


Model to satellite approach

Model-to-satellite Approach

Meso-NH CTRL without cloud fraction

GOES-E 11 m Tb

+24 h

11 m Tb

Cloud top height

Direct comparison

Meso-NH SUBG with cloud fraction=f(Q1)

00 UTC 24 Feb

+24 h


30 day objective evaluation

30-day Objective Evaluation

Full domain

3000x3000 km2

IR Tb

Correlation

13-14 Feb

Falcon+SF2

24 Feb

SF4

3-4 March

Falcon

Bauru area 150x150 km2

IR Tb


Diurnal cycle over bauru area

Diurnal Cycle over Bauru Area

Surface Flux

IR Tb

CAPE/CIN

Precipitation

30-day average

Bauru area 150x150 km2


Time evolution over bauru

Time Evolution over Bauru

CAPE

IR Tb

min(TB)<205 K

Min(TB)<205 K

Precipitation

Bauru area 150x150 km2


Time longitude diagram

Time-Longitude Diagram

Precipitation

Meso-NH Tb

GOES-E Tb

% of Tb<205K

Data averaged within 75 km around Bauru


Ii three case studies

II. Three Case Studies

  • Preliminary work for three cases:

    • - 13-14 Feb, 24-25 Feb, and 3-4 March

  • Same setup as for the forecasts (x=30 km), but:

    • coupling with analyses (instead of ECMWF forecast)

    • use of the subgrid cloud scheme

  • Comparisons with:

    • - Meteosat Second Generation observations

    • Falcon and SF2/4 measurements


Comparison with msg at 10 8 m

Comparison with MSG at 10.8 m

Meteosat-8

00 UTC 14 Feb

00 UTC 25 Feb

00 UTC 4 March

Meso-NH


Comparison with msg at 3 9 m

Comparison with MSG at 3.9 m

Meteosat-8

00 UTC 14 Feb

00 UTC 25 Feb

00 UTC 4 March

Meso-NH


Comparison with falcon flights

Comparison with Falcon Flights

1650-2015 UTC 14 Feb

48 h Meso-NH run 36 h Meso-NH runFalcon flight

1719-2055 UTC 3 March

Data from DLR


Comparison with sf2 and sf4

Comparison with SF2 and SF4

24-25 Feb.

13-14 Feb.

Data from G. Durry (CNRS)


Conclusions

Conclusions

  • Forecasts for the TROCCINOX campaign

    • better agreement with satellite observation when using the subgrid cloud scheme

    • diurnal cycle of precip. in advance by 3 hours

    • Deep convection events with Tb<205K more frequent during cold front episodes

  • Three case studies

    • encouraging results when comparing with satellite and in-situ observations


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