objective evaluation of the meso nh simulations during hibiscus troccinox troccibras
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Objective Evaluation of the Meso-NH Simulations during Hibiscus-Troccinox-Troccibras. Forecasts for the TROCCINOX campaign Three case studies: 13 Feb, 24 Feb, 3 March. J.-P Chaboureau, J.-P. Cammas, J. Duron, F. Gheusi, C. Mari, P. J. Mascart, J.-P. Pinty

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objective evaluation of the meso nh simulations during hibiscus troccinox troccibras
Objective Evaluation of the Meso-NH Simulations during Hibiscus-Troccinox-Troccibras
  • Forecasts for the TROCCINOX campaign
  • Three case studies: 13 Feb, 24 Feb, 3 March

J.-P Chaboureau, J.-P. Cammas, J. Duron, F. Gheusi, C. Mari, P. J. Mascart, J.-P. Pinty

Laboratoire d’Aérologie (UPS/CNRS) Toulouse, France

i forecasts for the campaign

Daily real-time runs from 27 January to 5 March 2004 posted on http://www.aero.obs-mip.fr/mesonh/troccinox

I. Forecasts for the Campaign

  • One single domain
    • horizontal grid: 100 x 100 points at 30 km resolution
    • 72 levels: from 40 m (bottom) up to 600 m (top)
  • Physics
    • turbulence: CBR TKE 1D scheme
    • convection: Bechtold’s scheme
    • microphysics: Pinty-Jabouille
    • surface: ISBA
    • radiation: ECMWF
  • Initialization/coupling with ECMWF forecasts
  • Lagrangian tracers
  • Simulated GOES-E brightness temperature (Tb)

3000 km

3000 km

model to satellite approach
Model-to-satellite Approach

Meso-NH CTRL without cloud fraction

GOES-E 11 m Tb

+24 h

11 m Tb

Cloud top height

Direct comparison

Meso-NH SUBG with cloud fraction=f(Q1)

00 UTC 24 Feb

+24 h

30 day objective evaluation
30-day Objective Evaluation

Full domain

3000x3000 km2

IR Tb

Correlation

13-14 Feb

Falcon+SF2

24 Feb

SF4

3-4 March

Falcon

Bauru area 150x150 km2

IR Tb

diurnal cycle over bauru area
Diurnal Cycle over Bauru Area

Surface Flux

IR Tb

CAPE/CIN

Precipitation

30-day average

Bauru area 150x150 km2

time evolution over bauru
Time Evolution over Bauru

CAPE

IR Tb

min(TB)<205 K

Min(TB)<205 K

Precipitation

Bauru area 150x150 km2

time longitude diagram
Time-Longitude Diagram

Precipitation

Meso-NH Tb

GOES-E Tb

% of Tb<205K

Data averaged within 75 km around Bauru

ii three case studies
II. Three Case Studies
  • Preliminary work for three cases:
    • - 13-14 Feb, 24-25 Feb, and 3-4 March
  • Same setup as for the forecasts (x=30 km), but:
    • coupling with analyses (instead of ECMWF forecast)
    • use of the subgrid cloud scheme
  • Comparisons with:
    • - Meteosat Second Generation observations
    • Falcon and SF2/4 measurements
comparison with msg at 10 8 m
Comparison with MSG at 10.8 m

Meteosat-8

00 UTC 14 Feb

00 UTC 25 Feb

00 UTC 4 March

Meso-NH

comparison with msg at 3 9 m
Comparison with MSG at 3.9 m

Meteosat-8

00 UTC 14 Feb

00 UTC 25 Feb

00 UTC 4 March

Meso-NH

comparison with falcon flights
Comparison with Falcon Flights

1650-2015 UTC 14 Feb

48 h Meso-NH run 36 h Meso-NH runFalcon flight

1719-2055 UTC 3 March

Data from DLR

comparison with sf2 and sf4
Comparison with SF2 and SF4

24-25 Feb.

13-14 Feb.

Data from G. Durry (CNRS)

conclusions
Conclusions
  • Forecasts for the TROCCINOX campaign
    • better agreement with satellite observation when using the subgrid cloud scheme
    • diurnal cycle of precip. in advance by 3 hours
    • Deep convection events with Tb<205K more frequent during cold front episodes
  • Three case studies
    • encouraging results when comparing with satellite and in-situ observations
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