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Recent Developments in the ICT Sector and the role of the state as a driver by Dr. Paris Kokorotsikos President of EUROCONSULTANTS S.A. Contents The International ICT trends as seen by OECD and EU
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Recent Developments in the ICT Sector and the role of the state as a driverbyDr. Paris Kokorotsikos President of EUROCONSULTANTS S.A.
Contents • The International ICT trends as seen by OECD and EU • Government and ICT: the role of Infosociety programme in Greece and other National EU initiatives in stimulating private sector initiatives and investments • Investments in ICT in the New E.U. States and Associated States driven by E.U. funded programmes
ΠΙΣΤΟΠΟΙΗΣΗ ΠΟΙΟΤΗΤΑΣ ISO 9001 ΣΥΜΒΟΥΛΕΥΤΙΚΩΝ ΥΠΗΡΕΣΙΩΝ Examining the downturn - Is the trend reversing? • The growth of the commercial Internet brought about important one-off investments whichwill not be repeated in the next few years. • Y2K concerns moved forward hardware and software replacement cycles. • Stock market excesses financed the high-tech investment boom, but after that the bubble hasburst, investors are more cautious. • Unrealistic expectations of future demand compounded by a glut in supply, for example theover-building of installed fiber-optic capacity.
Factors driving future demand • Demand for software is strong, particularly for optimising systems and infrastructure, as wellas for integrating different applications (e.g. e-business). Industry projections suggest thatoutsourcing and IT services will also benefit from this growth trend (UBS, 2002), despite thefact that the IT services market suffered its first year of decline during 2002 (Gartner, 2003). • Security concerns are an increasing priority for firms of all sizes. • Open source / Linux are becoming viable business alternatives. • Demand for storage (hardware and software) is likely to increase. • Broadband demand from both households and businesses continues to grow and newapplication such as WiFi will spur new demand (OECD, 2003b). • e-learning and other e- state initiatives (e-health, e-procurement etc) are driving new businesses
Revising estimates of IT regional market growth Annual growth rates in % Source: OECD WP on Information Economy
Quarterly US shipments of ICT goods by segment, Q1 99 – Q1 03 Year-to-year change in %
Quarterly investment in information processing equipment and software in the US, Q1 92 – Q1 03 As a percentage of total private fixed investment Source: OECD WP on Information Economy
Quarterly venture capital investment in the ICT sector in the US, Q1 95 – Q1 03 As a share of total venture capital investment, and in value (in USD billions) Note: The ICT sector includes the following industries: software, telecommunications, networking andequipment, semiconductors, IT services, computers and peripherals, and electronics/instrumentation. Source: PricewaterhouseCoopers et al. MoneyTree Survey, Q1 2003 Report, May 2003.http://www.pwcmoneytree.com/
R&D expenditure by top 300 international businessR&D spenders in selected sectors - average annual growth rate,1998-2002 and absolute level (€ million), 2002 (1) Source: DG Research
R&D expenditure by top EU-15 and top US businessR&D spenders in selected sectors, 2002
e - activities in Greece Use of Internet by Population Source: Managing Authority Infosociety
Examples of ICT/e-commerce awareness raising programmes for SMEs
EU funded national programmes in new EU and preaccession states On an average 10-20% (depending on country) of these figures go to ICT investments
ICT projects in New EU states / preaccession states and states with EU association agreement BULGARIADevelopment and Implementation of VIES requirements and EU interoperability standards in the field of VAT within the Integrated Information System of the Bulgarian Tax Administration to achieve interoperability with Member States and DG TAXUD Compo ESTONIA Information System Development for the Estonian Tax Board Location Estonia LATVIA Baltic Cyber City in Valmiera ROMANIA Support for the Ministry of Public Finance in the implementation of the IT strategy Romania
ICT projects in New EU states / preaccession states and states with EU association agreement SLOVAK REPUBLICIncrease the security of information and data processing among Law Enforcement Agencies Specific Software Applications Development and Training of the National Public Health Institute Staff TURKEY Upgrading the Statistical System of Turkey (USST). Technical Assistance to improve the ICT System RUSSIAN FEDERATION Development of Internet Based Interactive Government to Business Services in Northwest Russia EGYPT Development of Software Sector