RETRANS2 – Final Report
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RETRANS2 – Final Report Univ.-Prof. Dr.-Ing. Armin Schnettler, Thomas Dederichs Ann-Kathrin Meinerzhagen, Eva Szczechowicz RWTH Aachen University, Germany. 12. July 2011. Introduction. Background of the project.

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12 july 2011

RETRANS2 – Final ReportUniv.-Prof. Dr.-Ing. Armin Schnettler, Thomas DederichsAnn-Kathrin Meinerzhagen, Eva SzczechowiczRWTH Aachen University, Germany

12. July 2011


Background of the project

Introduction

Background of the project

  • The transport sector is globally growing and has the strongest reliance on fossil fuels from all economic sectors

    • GHG emissions from transport increased by 26% from 1990-2006 (in Europe)

    • Worldwide transport is responsible for 25% of energy-related CO2-Emissions

    • European Target – 80% CO2 reduction by 2050 compared to 1990

      • thus oil consumption in the transport sector must drop by around 70% from today

  • Expected development (globally)

    • 2009: 6,8 billion people, 700 million passenger vehicles

    • 2050: 9 billion people, 3 billion passenger vehicles

  • Mitigation of fuel-dependency and CO2-Emissions possible with Electric Vehicles?

  • Co-Evolution of transport sector and energy sector provides opportunities for developing Electricity from Renewable Energy Sources and Electric Vehicles

  • Energy systems and transport characteristics differ around the world→ need for regional perspectives


Comparison of three world regions

Scope of RETRANS2 Regions

Comparison of three world regions

  • Identify challenges and opportunities for the Co-Evolution of Electric Vehicles and Electricity from Renewable Energy Sources in three world regions (North America, Europe, China)

    • Similarities and differences in personal mobility

    • Infrastructure requirements for the integration of Electric Vehicles and Electricity from Renewable Energy Sources

    • Existing policy framework

    • Economical influences on the evolution of Electric Vehicles and Renewable Energy

  • Assist stakeholders of this Co-Evolution in better understanding the characteristics of each region

  • Examine whether the policy recommendations from the RETRANS project can be applied

    • Identification of those policy options that have to be adjusted to better fit the situation in one region


Stakeholders for co evolution policies

Background information from RETRANS

Stakeholders for Co-Evolution Policies

  • OEMs

    • EVs can be counted as ZEVs if contribution to energy fund for new RES-E is paid

    • Lower overall fleet emissions

  • Utilities

    • Systems stabilizing bonus for connected EVs

  • DSOs

    • Smart metering required

  • Government

    • Hard coupling: increase RES-E portfolio share with growing EV market penetration

    • Tax exemption on RES-E traction current

  • Aggregator

    • Actor that bundles EVs in a certain region for offering their common capacity for ancillary services

    • System stabilizing bonus might offer additional potential for revenue


Consistent long term policy for co evolution needed that involves a variety of actors

RETRANS Policy Recommendations

Consistent long term policy for Co-Evolution needed that involves a variety of actors

  • Preparation for EVs

    • Infrastructure and standardization (plugs, charging levels, smart grids)

    • Pilot fleets in niche markets

      • Learning effects for cost reductions

    • Long term perspective for Industry, security of investment

  • Increase RES-E production

    • Feed-in tariffs or premiums

    • Renewable portfolio shares or obligations

    • Cap and trade

  • Balanced grid development

    • Priority access for renewables (no coal based charging)

    • Coordinated technical and institutional efforts

    • Smart grids and active load management

  • Phase 2: Increase EV deployment for mass markets, increase system integration (V2G)


Methodology approach

Methodology & approach

Literature survey and analysis of relevant studies and policy papers

Assessment of pilot projects

(In-House) Expert interviews on characteristics of regional electricity sector development

Analysis of statistical data

Analysis of regional policies until today and their continuation


Chapters

Table of Contents

Chapters

  • Context

    • Regional Economic and Transport-related Background

    • Electric Vehicles

    • RES-E and Grid

  • Opportunities & Challenges for Co-Evolution

  • Conclusions


The chinese transport sector adapts slowly to europe and north america

Context – Transport Sector Overview

The Chinese transport sector adapts slowly to Europe and North America

Transport sector has fastest growing energy use and strongest reliance on fossil fuels of all economic sectors worldwide.


Diverse economic and population background north america and europe are comparable

Context –Economic Situation

Diverse Economic and Population Background - North America and Europe are comparable

Source: IfHT, values from World Monetary Fund

World Average

1 billion

Source: IfHT, values from CIA & Eurostat

100%

Source: IfHT, values from UN

  • GDP per capita (PPP)

    • North America and Europe have a GDP of 4 and 3 times the world average, respectively

    • China has a much lower GDP per capita(0,7 times the world average)

  • Population

    • 342 million – North America

    • 500 million – Europe (EU27)

      • Low population density in Nordic Countries

    • 1.3 billion – China

      • High density only in southern and eastern China

  • Urbanization

    • High rates in North America (80%) and Europe (72%) & Northern Europe (79%)

    • Much lower urbanization (47%) in ChinaUrban Chinese population surpasses both North America’s and Europe’s total


Differences in vehicle ownership and market development

Context – Vehicles Market

Differences in Vehicle ownership and Market development


Chinese market will be catching up on western levels further extreme growth expected

Context – Chinese Vehicles Market

Chinese market will be catching up on Western levels – further extreme growth expected

20

10

0

Vehicle Sales (Total/ Passenger Vehicles

Commercial Vehicles)

  • Highest global sales of passenger vehicles as of 2009

    • Sales more than doubled within 3 years

  • ~ 13.7 million new passenger vehicles in 2010

  • Further growth expected, especially for lower-margin subcompact and compact cars


Cars are most important for passenger traffic and will most likely stay so

Context – Passenger traffic

Cars are most important for passenger traffic and will most likely stay so

  • Europe and North America rely mainly on private cars for passenger transport

  • Importance of vehicles is mirrored in available infrastructure (Annex A13)

  • Further increase in traffic expected for the European Union

    • Passenger traffic activity + 51%, 2005 – 2050

    • Reasons:

      • Immigration

      • Expansion of the Union (increase in labor mobility)

      • Economic growth

      • Increase in labor mobility


Chapters1

Table of Contents

Chapters

  • Context

    • Regional Economic and Transport-related Background

    • Electric Vehicles

    • RES-E and Grid

  • Opportunities & Challenges for Co-Evolution

  • Conclusions


Analysis of strengths and weaknesses

Context – Electric Vehicles

Analysis of Strengths and Weaknesses

Strengths

Economical driving

Electric grid provides basic infrastructure

Weaknesses

Battery limits

Lack of Standardization

Few models available

Scarce infrastructure

High investment costs

Opportunities

Integrating RES in transport sector

Reducing local emissions (not only gaseous but also dust and noise)

Threats

Costs for infrastructure

Battery lifetime

Safety

Advances in efficiency of conventional vehicles


Evs are a niche market

Context – Transport Sector – Electric Vehicles

EVs are a niche market

  • EVs are close to the market

    • This will change with increased adoption and information to the general public.


Benefits regarding ghg emissions strongly depend on the regional electricity mix

Context –Electric Vehicles & GHG Mitigation

Benefits regarding GHG emissions strongly depend on the regional electricity mix

200

100

0

ICE BC AB SK MB ON QC NB NS PEI NL

GHG = Greenhouse gas – EV = Electric vehicle

ICEV = Internal combustion engine vehicleRES-E = Electricity from Renewable Sources

CAFE standards = US fuel efficiency standards

  • EVs considered as low- or no-emission-vehicles

    • Technically this depends on the electricity mix

    • EVs powered by coal-fired power plants emit >800gCO2/ km

    • Nighttime charging can result in both increasing the share of RES-E and in increasing the share of fossil base-load electricity and thus in higher emissions

  • Emissions of EVs are 50% of ICEVs’ with current European electricity mix

  • Emissions of EVs are 89-74% of ICEVs’ with current USA electricity mix

    • GHG emissions lower in Canada (2006 data) because of higher proportion of RES-E (depending on province)

    • Using RES-E, GHG emissions could be reduced to 75%-38% of ICEVs’ to which the new CAFE standards of 35.5 mpg by 2016 apply.


Ghg emissions from electric vehicles are beneficial only in some chinese regions

Context – Transport Sector – Emissions of EVs

GHG emissions from electric vehicles are beneficial only in some Chinese regions

  • In China the high share of coal-based electricity in the grid increases EVs’ emissions above those from conventional ICEVs (2010 data)

    • The electricity mix in the more densely populated southern and eastern China decreases EVs’ emissions below conventional values

    • The northern regions that today have the highest emission values have large unconnected wind resources

  • N NE E C NW S Hai Av. ICE

GHG = Greenhouse gas – EV = Electric vehicle

ICEV = Internal combustion engine vehicleRES-E = Electricity from Renewable Sources


Low gas prices in north america and china reduce interest in ev s cost benefits

Context – Electric Vehicles – Economic Influence

Low gas prices in North America and China reduce interest in EV’s cost-benefits

  • Gas prices and gas tax are low in China, Canada and the USA relative to Europe

Gas prices around the world (US $ per gallon, 2011)

Source: www.dailyfinance.com


General transport sector emissions policies influence also the deployment of electric vehicles

Context – Electric Vehicles – Economic Influence

General transport sector emissions policies influence also the deployment of electric vehicles

  • GHG emissions are taken into account through taxation in many European countries (map)(Dark Blue: more than one taxation scheme, Light Blue: one kind of CO2-tax)and in China

    • Tax benefits from this taxation reduce impact of cost-difference compared with conventional cars

  • No taxation of GHG emissions of passenger vehicles in North America

  • Elevated electricity costs in Nordic countries

    • Influence the economical viability of EVs

  • Variety of policies regarding future of transport

    • Shift of commodities to rail and inland navigation

    • Increase of public transport

  • Holistic approach provides less secure framework for investments


Societal change drives the deployment of electric vehicles

Context – Electric Vehicles - Drivers

Societal change drives the deployment of electric vehicles

  • Urbanization

    • Urban areas experience most traffic problems

    • High population density in urban areas warrants investments in infrastructure

    • Urban population tends to early adoption of new technologies

      • So far the number of EVs (per head) is biggest in cities

        But:

    • Charging infrastructure faces competition for space

  • Immigration and labor mobility

    • Increase mobility needs

  • Customer acceptance of new mobility patterns,of the look, space and performance of EVs


Technical and political development will have strongest influence on ev deployment

Context – Electric Vehicles – Drivers

Technical and political development will have strongest influence on EV deployment

  • Political and regulatory support

    • Subsidies

    • Infrastructure development

    • Pilot projects

    • Recommendations from funding organizations

      • 207 models recommended for subsidies in Chinaonly these models are eligible

      • Some European countries publish catalogues of vehicles that are entitled to benefits

  • Standardization

    • Secure framework for investments from stakeholders

  • Development of vehicle energy storage systems

    • Longer driving range

    • Lower battery costs

The sustainability of the deployment of electric vehicles has to be taken into account for devising support policies!


The availability of charging infrastructure is a basic requirement for electric vehicle deployment

Context – Electric Vehicles – Drivers

The availability of charging infrastructure is a basic requirement for electric vehicle deployment

  • Security aspect for users

  • Necessary for widespread EV usage

    • Quick-charging is now being implemented in the Nordic European countries

      • April 12, 2011 Denmark's first quick charge station opened (max. 20 minutes for 80 % SOC)

      • 2 stations have been build in the Oslo area in Norway

      • Battery swapping stations will be built in Denmark(Figure: Projection for 2012)

  • In China all three charging technologies are/ will be tested

    • Some pilot cities have already published standards

    • Slow charging and battery swapping are preferred by grid companies

    • No governmental preferences yet


Electric vehicles do not meet with favorable conditions everywhere

Context – Challenges for EVs

Electric vehicles do not meet with favorable conditions everywhere

  • Diverse climate conditions

    • All three regions encompass various climate zones with cold winters in the north and humid and hot summers in the south

      • These climatic differences will lead to different battery lifetime and vehicle availability

    • Landscape and road conditions vary

  • Areas with low population density increase infrastructural costs for widespread deployment

    • Midwestern America, western and northern China, northern Europe

    • For first usage in cities population density is not an issue

  • Ageing population in North America and Europe

    • Ageing people remain increasingly mobile and thus cause more traffic

    • An increasing share of governmental funds has to be dedicated to care

      • Funding for new technologies becomes more difficult


Complementary use rather than replacing conventional vehicles

Context – Electric Vehicles – Markets

Complementary use rather than replacing conventional vehicles

  • Electric vehicles are typically second cars

    • Commuting

      • Germany: most commuting distances are 80 km or under

      • This is absolutely within EVs range

    • Inner-City-Traffic

      • Reduction of local emissions

        • Noise

        • Green House Gases and Particles

      • Short distances, stop and go

  • Integration into Car-Sharing programs

    • No individual perception of purchase costs

  • Public electric vehicles in China

    • Buses & Taxis – uniform fleets allow economies of scale and battery swapping

    • Sanitation vehicles, postal cars, other public services’ vehicles


Usage models have different requirements on evs and infrastructure

Context – Electric Vehicles – Markets

Usage models have different requirements on EVs and infrastructure

  • Inner-City traffic

    • Short distances, low requirements for speed

    • Slow charging, mostly at home

  • Commuting

    • Medium requirements for distances and speed

    • Slow charging, at home and at work

  • Car sharing

    • Short and medium distances, low and medium speed

    • Slow charging at stations, maybe battery swapping

  • Inter-City-Traffic

    • Long distances, high requirements for speed

    • Fast charging and battery swapping on road


Evs should be offered in a package including additional transport and other services

Context – Electric Vehicles – Business Models

EVs should be offered in a package including additional transport and other services

  • Public transport ticket(s)

  • Rental car service

  • Combination with car-sharing programs?

  • Installation of home charging point

  • Access to charging stations/ reserved parking spots

    • Free charging on public charging stations

    • Flat rate for charging current from RES-E

  • Pay-per-mile battery leasing offers

  • Maintenance services

  • Guarantee on battery and vehicle parts

  • Insurance


Pilot projects are nuclei for ev deployment

Context – Electric Vehicles – Pilot Projects

Pilot Projects are nuclei for EV deployment


European pilot projects surpass north americans in numbers

Context – Electric Vehicles – Pilot Projects

European pilot projects surpass North Americans in numbers

  • Projects concentrate on cities or one peculiar region

    • Small scale co-operation of local authorities, Utilities and OEMs

  • Focus

    • Experience/ Usage

      • Private use, Commuting

      • Car sharing

      • Public transportation, Postal service

    • Charging infrastructure

  • Many big cities have pilot projects

    • Commercial/ public vehicles

    • Car sharing

    • Public transportation, Postal service

    • Charging infrastructure

    • One project encompasses several states (see Annex A4)


Chinese ten cities thousand vehicles program

Context – Electric Vehicles – Pilot Projects

Chinese “Ten Cities Thousand Vehicles” Program

  • There are three stages of 25 pilot cities in the “Ten Cities Thousand Vehicles” pilot program.

  • Currently, most EV in these pilot cities are public buses, taxis, official’s cars and services vehicles.

  • 5 cities have subsidies for private EV customers

Details of five representative cities are listed in Annex A4.


User behavior

Context – Electric Vehicles – Users

User Behavior

  • EV users are early adopters or members of public organizations

    • Early adopters are older, educated, interested in technology and enjoy being early adopters

  • Willingness to plug-in may depend on business models

    • Interest in earnings through delayed charging vs. concerns about availability of the EV

    • V2G services only of interest if a benefit is perceived

    • Preference for home charging(90% in Northern Europe, 70% in Western Europe)

  • Consumers value environmental performance, but they value other attributes more.


User concerns

Context – Electric Vehicles – Users

User concerns

Global issues

Manufacturing issues

  • High initial investment

    • Users today are more willing to take TCO into account for purchasing decisions

    • Price

      • EVs cost at least ¥ 20,000 more than ICEVs of same performance

      • 40% of consumers that avoid purchasing a hybrid do so due to cost. Only 10% of non-hybrid consumers avoid a purchase due to cost.

    • Nordic countries: Prices on EVs (free from registration charge) coming close to those of conventional cars (including charge).EV family cars start at € 65,000 in Norway

    • Fuel economy (in $/km)/ Operating costs

  • Scarce infrastructure

  • Performance of EVs

    • 14% of consumers that avoid purchasing a hybrid do so due to performance. Only 5% of non-hybrid consumers avoid a purchase due to performance.

  • Geographical differences

    • Weather/ climateIn 2010 Danish EVs showed poor performance in cold weather

    • Landscape/ Roads

  • Driving range

  • Charge times

  • Battery life(span)

  • Relatively few models available/ lack of diversity

    • Dislike of the look/design

  • Safety

  • TCO = Total Cost of Ownership

    ICEV = Internal Combustion Engine Vehicle


    Urban and rural backgrounds for evs differ also between the regions

    Context – Electric Vehicles – Urban vs. Rural

    Urban and rural backgrounds for EVs differ – also between the regions

    Urban

    Rural

    • 80% of North American population, 75% of European population, 46% of Chinese population lives in cities

    • Traffic load in cities increases

      • Emissions from traffic increase (gaseous, dust, noise)

      • Increase of congestion

      • Commuters have high requirements on vehicle performance and reliability

    • Cities have highest need for holistic passenger transportation solution

    • Most deployment of EVs in cities

    • Spatial planning conflicts for charging infrastructure

    • Public transportation is not always conveniently available

    • Need for reliable private transportation solutions

    • Vehicle ownership rates are higher (Europe& North America)/ lower (China) than in cities

    • Demand for vehicles in rural and suburban areas increases

    • Focus: low-speed low-cost vehicles

      • 70 km/h maximum, 40,000 – 50,000 ¥

      • Challenges: safety, environmental impacts (battery), traffic regulation conflicts


    Standardization of infrastructure and vehicle characteristics is urgently needed

    Context – Electric Vehicles – Standardization

    Standardization of infrastructure and vehicle characteristics is urgently needed

    • Some general vehicle standards for safety specifications, general design specifications and emission testing also apply to electric vehicles

    • Standardized Plug needed urgently

      • Wider harmonization needed, parallel systems exist today

        • Mennekes plug is harmonized between France and Germany

        • Scame plug is supported by French-Italian alliance

        • Yazaki is standard plug in the USA

        • Chinese pilot cities have started issuing their own standards for charging infrastructure

    • Need for standards on

      • Number of phases for charging (1 or 3)

      • National and cross-national compatibility

      • Safety requirements + technical approval body

      • Data protocols and protection of data

      • Charging cable reposit

      • Billing system

      • Liability


    Safety standards are especially important

    Context – Electric Vehicles – Standardization

    Safety standards are especially important

    • Differing vehicle standards between the USA and Canada (involving bumpers, seat belts, side door strength, metric indicators, etc.).

      • To be harmonized by 2012

    • There is a need for nation-wide harmonized standards for after-market ICE vehicle conversion.

      • Safety of plugs and the charging process is a concern besides design, number of phases & voltage level for charging

    • Pure electric vehicles from independent manufacturers may not be as equipped for safety as modern cars are(airbag, anti-lock brakes, electronic stability control etc.)


    Targets for electric vehicles on the road

    Context – Electric Vehicles – Objectives

    Targets for Electric Vehicles on the road


    Targets for reduction of ghg emissions

    Context – Electric Vehicles – Objectives

    Targets for Reduction of GHG emissions

    Fuel distribution in European road transport 2009

    Electricity includes inland waterway and air transport

    Source: Eurostat

    • EU 20-20-20-Targets

      • 20% reduction of GHG emissions (relative to 1990)

      • 20% of energy from renewables

        • 10% share of renewables in transport

      • 20% increase in energy efficiency

      • National targets are even stricter

        • Sweden & Denmark:100% renewable fuels in transportby 2030

    • North America

      • Non-binding target of 17% reduction of GHG emissions by 2020 (relative to 2005)


    12 july 2011

    Context – Electric Vehicles – Regulatory Barriers

    The lack of standards makes long-term planning difficult for vehicle and infrastructure manufacturers

    • No coordinated effort between car-making markets in terms of regulation (regarding emissions standards which were agreed on in Europe & China or the type of technologies to support) yet.

      • Makes planning effectively for the long term difficult for auto-makers

      • Can be somewhat mitigated by technology-sharing agreements between companies

      • Hinders large-scale deployment (i.e. Chevrolet intends to produce only 10,000 units of the Volt in its first year of production in the United States).

    • No political will to implement high fuel taxes to stimulate the greatest advances in vehicle efficiency and alternative vehicles

      • Increasingly strict fuel efficiency standards are a good first step


    National or regional authorities provide a variety of incentives for electric vehicle users

    Context – Electric Vehicles – Benefits & Incentives

    National or regional authorities provide a variety of incentives for Electric Vehicle users

    Details for Regions in Annex A3

    • Taxation reduction or exemption

      • Registration fee – One-time-benefit

      • Annual circulation or motor tax – annual benefit

    • Subsidies

      • At acquisition or later

    • Traffic privileges

      • Use of bus lanes, free parking

      • Exemption from ferry tolls or road charges

      • Exemption from car license plate lottery and traffic restrictions (Beijing)

    • Fuel subsidies

    • Reduced insurance rates for pilot fleets


    Chapters2

    Table of Contents

    Chapters

    • Context

      • Regional Economic and Transport-related Background

      • Electric Vehicles

      • RES-E and Grid

    • Opportunities & Challenges for Co-Evolution

    • Conclusions


    Electricity from renewable energy sources

    Context – Electricity from Renewable Sources

    Electricity from Renewable Energy Sources


    1 6th 1 5th of electricity is from renewables

    Context – RES-E – Current status

    1/6th – 1/5th of Electricity is from Renewables

    Renewable0,5%


    2020 res e targets and scenarios

    Context – RES-E

    2020 RES-E Targets and Scenarios

    Details for North America in Annex


    Production incentives for renewable electricity are most widely in force in europe

    Context – RES-E – Incentives

    Production incentives for renewable electricity are most widely in force in Europe


    Electricity markets differ vertical markets in north america and china

    Context – Electricity Sector – Structure

    Electricity markets differ – Vertical markets in North America and China


    Reserve power feed in from electric vehicles may be an income option for owners

    Context – Reserve market

    Reserve power feed-in from electric vehicles may be an income option for owners


    Electricity grids are very different in the three regions

    Context – Grids

    Electricity grids are very different in the three regions


    One common transmission grid for europe

    Context – RES-E – Grid organization

    „One common“ transmission grid for Europe

    • European Network of TSOs for Electricity

      • Continental Europe Synchronous Area

      • Nordic Synchronous Area

      • Baltic Synchronous Area

      • British Synchronous Area

      • Irish Synchronous Area

      • Isolated Systems of Cyprus and Iceland

    • Harmonization of Grid Codes

    • Common Network planning

    Source: IfHT, based on Entso-e Factsheet 2011


    North american grids are separated today

    Context – RES-E – Grid organization

    North American grids are separated today

    The separation of the grid continues northwardsinto Canada.

    Source: IfHT, (based on) NPR 2009

    • Interconnected Grids:

      • Western Interconnection

      • Eastern Interconnection

      • Texas

      • Alaska/ Hawaii

    • Links between these regions planned.

      • Planning in map:

      • Separation of grids will largely remain


    China s grid is split in two

    Context – RES-E – Grid organization

    China’s grid is split in two

    • Two major grid companies

      • China State Grid (blue)26 Provinces2274.8 TWh

      • China Southern Grid (gold)5 Provinces628 TWh

    • Six major regional grids

      • Center, North/ NortheastEast, Northwest

      • South

    • Distributed power production is not encouraged

    Source: IfHT, based on Earley et al.


    The densely populated demand centers are far away from renewable resources in china

    The densely populated demand centers are far away from renewable resources in China

    Context – RES-E – Regional Power Characteristics

    • Energy resources – and power production – are located far from the demand areas.

    • Wind and other renewable energies could directly charge EVs (or swapped batteries) in both northern China as well as in southwestern China where transport of liquid fuels is inconvenient

    • Given the low economic development status of these areas, it is likely that low-tech, low-speed, low-cost EVs will be more accepted there.

    • Low-cost EVs use lead-acid batteries which are increasingly causing pollution problems in rural China.

    50

    Source: IfHT based on "Imbalance of Power Production and Consumption in China” and Earley et al.


    Fossil fuel based electricity dominates the electricity mix in china

    Context – RES-E – Regional Power Characteristics

    Fossil fuel-based electricity dominates the electricity mix in China

    • Northwest and Southwest China have some wind power installed

    • South and East China have hydro power available

      • This is used for peak load management

    • Regulated charging

      • Uses excess RES-E

      • Increases deployed share of RES-E

    ThermalHydroNuclearWind & other


    V2g at the moment not legally possible in any region

    Context – V2G

    V2G at the moment not legally possible in any region

    • The bidirectionality of charging and providing ancillary services makes billing complicated

    • Two pilot projects that include V2G are underway in the USA (notably in Colorado)

      • US personal vehicles are used ~1 h/day

      • Expensive ancillary services (from coal or gas) in US

      • Inexpensive ancillary services (from hydro power) in Canada

    • Regulatory and Usage framework varies heavily in Europe

      • European cars are immobile most of the day (comparably to the US)

      • Parking situations vary between countries

        • Vehicles are parked on the street overnight in Italy

        • Availability of possibilities for plugging-in at work is unclear

      • Important sources for ancillary services are gas and hydro power


    Ancillary services from electric vehicles

    Context – RES-E – Business models

    Ancillary services from electric vehicles

    • Further development of Communication infrastructure and bidirectional metering for controlled charging and feed-back needed

    • Participation in reserve markets is currently outlawed

      • Revenue depends on demand and the energy provided

      • Reserve from hydro power (in Canada and Norway) is cheap while natural gas based reserve power

    • Hope that EVs can result in less need for new or closing down existing fossil fuel based base load capacity on the long term


    Revenues from grid related services reserve capacity in the nordic power market

    Context – RES-E – Ancillary services

    Revenues from grid-related services:Reserve capacity in the Nordic power market


    Chapters3

    Table of Contents

    Chapters

    • Context

      • Regional Economic and Transport-related Background

      • Electric Vehicles

      • RES-E and Grid

    • Opportunities & Challenges for Co-Evolution

    • Conclusions


    Co evolution

    Co-Evolution

    Co-Evolution


    Cooperation between stakeholders needed for co evolution

    Co-Evolution – General Requirements

    Cooperation between stakeholders needed for Co-Evolution

    • Co-Evolution only possible if both EV deployment and RES-E production are encouraged

      • RES-E production needs to increase for Co-Evolution

      • Tariffs for charging with RES-E need to be developed

    • Cooperation between stakeholders

      • Vehicle and infrastructure standards

      • Facilitating RES-E integration

      • Provide possibilities for RES-E charging

    • Globally coordinated development of standards

      • Synergies can only emerge if technological development does not take different directions


    Both res e production and ev deployment rely on electricity grids

    Co-Evolution – System Requirements

    Both RES-E production and EV deployment rely on electricity grids

    PV = Photovoltaics

    RES-E = Electricity from Renewable Sources

    • Grids need to be sufficiently stable and/ or expanded for accommodating

      • New centralized (off-shore/ on-shore wind) and distributed (solar PV, micro-wind, etc.) production

        • Preference for centralized RES-E production means more attention on transmission grids. Security of supply is seen as more important than increasing the share of RES-E.

      • Additional distributed load

        • Battery swapping stations could stabilize and centralize demand

        • A preference for home charging means increased (distributed) household-load

    • Opportunities for high penetration of EVs

      • Regulated charging

        • For better capacity utilization

        • For taking stress off the distribution grid (assets)

      • Storage of RES-E

        • Increase share of RES-E

        • Provide reserve power for grid

        • Stabilize feed-in from volatile sources


    The two european island states take different routes

    Co-Evolution – Situation of Islands

    The two European island states take different routes

    • Iceland focuses on Hydrogen and Fuel cell vehicles

      • Co-Evolution of RES-E to H2 and FCEVs possible

      • Economic crises have decreased the number of initiatives

    • Ireland promotes EVs

      • Electricity market

        • Demand growth

        • Small difference between peak demand & installed reserve capacity

        • Few interconnections (2 more under construction)

        • High dependency on imported fuels

      • Opportunities for EVs

        • Security of transport energy supply

        • Nighttime charging with excess wind power

        • Aran islands pilot project: becoming self-sustainable with local energy

      • Security of supply is main difference to Texas


    Targeted numbers of evs can be accommodated without major grid and or production expansion

    Co-Evolution – Impact on power generation

    Targeted Numbers of EVs can be accommodated without major grid and/ or production expansion

    • This Assessment only considers global values. Results can differ for local grids.

      • Distribution grids in urban areas may experience overloads of assets first.

      • For average European grids up to 40% EV penetration does not create problems

      • For Beijing, 100% EV commuting could not be sustained

    Details in Annex A11


    Chinese and north american grids may be first to have problems with rising ev penetration

    Co-Evolution – Impact on power generation

    Chinese and North American grids may be first to have problems with rising EV penetration

    • Chinese grids are already now straining to keep up with the increased demand due to the rapid economic growth

      • Power shortages, especially in the densely populated areas, have to be expected

      • 30-60% difference in electricity demand between peak times and base load leaves room for off-peak EV charging

    • Investments in North American grids have decreased over the years

      • Grid assets are old

      • Local distribution grids may not have the strength to supply EVs

    • Challenges increase with rising penetration

      • Quick-charge at peak hours has the highest possible impact on grids and power generation capacity

      • Daytime charging may require upgrades in local distribution systems in China and North America

      • Regulated charging is expected to prevent impact on base load power plants


    12 july 2011

    Co-Evolution – Impact on grids

    Renewable electricity and electric vehicles affect the stability of transmission and distribution grids

    • Integration of distributed RES-E production and EVs influences stability of distribution grids

      • Communication infrastructure needed for controlled charging

    • Integration of large RES-E plants increases stress on transportation grids

      • Expected increase of off-shore wind power is a challenge

      • European and especially Nordic grids are well designed and prepared for transporting RES-E

        • Modernizing and increasing the strength and flexibility in the grid will take place also without the expected increase of EVs.

      • Chinese grids will be strengthened with building extra high voltage transmission capacity

      • Grid expansion in North America is costly – especially for transmission infrastructure

        • Distributed generation with local grid reinforcement is a good first step

          • Exploitation of resource-rich regions will be necessary for significant replacement of fossil fuels (northern Canada (wind), western US deserts (sun), offshore wind).


    The impact on grids and power production depends on time and method of charging

    Co-Evolution – Impact on Infrastructure

    The impact on grids and power production depends on time and method of charging

    • Slow charging and Battery swapping are preferred by DSOs

      • Both methods spread the load over a longer period

        • The centralized storage capacity of battery swapping stations makes them interesting for ancillary services and demand response

      • Fast Charging has highest potential to destabilize the grid

    • Time of Charging impact

      • Daytime, especially peak time charging will most likely result in overload in assets, especially in urban regions (demand centers, high population and vehicle density)

      • Nighttime charging:

        • The grid has transmission and distribution capacity available

        • The use of “spinning reserve” on the grid may become more efficient

        • RES-E that otherwise would not be fed in can be used

        • increased use of base load power plants possiblegreater coal consumption increase in GHG-emissions

      • Charging strategies for smart grids may focus on using RES-E for charging


    Regulated charging is the first step to reduce the impact on grid stability and power generation

    Co-Evolution – Impact on power generation

    Regulated Charging is the first step to reduce the impact on grid stability and power generation

    • Possible strategies:

      • Preference for charging with RES-E

        • EVs (+ smart charging) canincrease uptake of RES-E

        • Smart charging makes volatile RES-E a better business case

      • Charging in load valleys (with RES-E)

        • Price difference of 0.6 ¥/ kWh

    • An accounting system and charging infrastructure are now being built in the Nordic Countries.

      • Smart meters are put up as part of the "Introduction package" offered by "Better Place".

        • Smart meters are already installed in large scale in Sweden and Norway


    12 july 2011

    Technological Requirements for Co-Evolution

    Integration of RES-E

    Supporting RES-E with EVs

    Feed-In of

    stored RES-E

    Intermittent storage

    Demand Side Management

    Active load management

    Bidirectional

    ancillary services

    Smart Meter

    Regulated

    Charging

    Positive spinning reserve

    Ancillary services

    Negative

    spinning reserve

    Charging

    with RES-E

    Smart

    Grids

    Conventional

    Grid

    Unregulated

    Charging

    Conventional

    Grid

    ICT

    Frequency

    stability

    Accounting

    system

    Advanced ICT

    Additional

    spinning reserve

    Voltage

    stability

    Regulated Charging

    (reducing overloads)

    Charging

    Infrastructure

    Communication withLocal Network Stations

    Reduced load

    during fault

    Area wide charging stations

    Bidirectional charging infrastructure

    Technical requirements for grid support

    Feed-In during fault

    Integration of EVs


    Today s situation

    Technological Requirements for Co-Evolution

    Today‘s Situation

    Conventional GridUnregulated Charging

    • A strong conventional grid can take up small penetrations of EVs and RES-E

    • EVs only charge unregulated

    • First trials with smart meters – not necessarily in combination with EVs

      • Italy

      • Sweden

      • Norway

      • Denmark

      • Germany

      • China

    • First V2G trials in North America

    • RES-E integration depends on national electricity market’s regulation


    Next steps have begun

    Technological Requirements for Co-Evolution

    Next Steps have begun

    Charging with RES-E

    Frequency& VoltageStability

    AccountingSystem

    Charging Infrastructure

    • Technical requirements for grid support

      • Frequency stability

      • Voltage stability

        • Both are guaranteed by implementing simple charging control systems

      • Increased transmission efficiency and robustness

        • Stability and efficiency of grid needed for further development

    • Integration of RES-E

      • Implementation of distributed generation and local grid expansion in North America

    • Supporting RES-E with EVs

      • Charging with RES-E

        • Reduces EV emissions

        • Incentive for increasing RES-E share

      • Major RES-E bases will be constructed

      • Extra High Voltage long-distance transmission

        • Transporting power to demand centers

    • Integration of EVs

      • Charging infrastructure

        • First implementation in Pilot Projects

      • Accounting system

        • Is already being built in Nordic European Countries and in some Chinese pilot cities


    Near future

    Technological Requirements for Co-Evolution

    Near Future

    Smart Grids

    Regulated Charging

    Smart Meter

    Regulated Charging

    ICT

    Communication with local network stations

    • Technical requirements for grid support

      • Regulated charging

        • Reducing overloads of assets

        • Lack of standard in China today

      • Automatic Power Distribution

        • Distributing power according to demand

    • Integration of RES-E

      • Smart Meter & Smart Grids

        • Enable more services for RES-E support

        • First trials in place in different regions

      • Extra High Voltage Transmission

        • For transporting RES-E to demand centers

    • Supporting RES-E with EVs

      • Regulated Charging

        • Higher penetration/ share without major impacts

    • Integration of EVs

      • Information and Communication Technology

        • For better vehicle control

      • Communication with local network stations

      • Information and Communication stations


    Phase 2 development

    Technological Requirements for Co-Evolution

    Phase 2 Development?

    DSM

    Active load management

    NegativeSpinning

    Reserve

    Ancillary services

    Reduced load during fault

    Advanced ICT

    Additional spinning reserve

    Area widecharging stations

    • Technical requirements for grid support

      • Additional spinning reserve

        • Secure grid balance

      • Reduced load during fault

        • Stabilizing the grid

        • Not in place or allowed in China today

      • Strong smart grid

        • Managing impacts and optimizing demand satisfaction

    • Integration of RES-E

      • Negative spinning reserve & Demand side management

        • Secure balance of RES-E production and consumption

    • Supporting RES-E with EVs

      • Active load management

        • Increase RES-E take-up in times of energy surplus

      • Ancillary services (unidirectional)

        • Stabilizing the grid

    • Integration of EVs

      • Advanced Information and Communication Technology

        • Enabling V2G services

      • Area wide charging stations

        • Infrastructure covering large – medium cities


    Full co implementation

    Technological Requirements for Co-Evolution

    Full Co-Implementation

    Positivespinning reserve

    Feed-In ofstored RES-E

    Intermittent storage

    Bidirectional ancillary service

    Feed-In during fault

    Feed back to grid

    Bidirectional charging infrastructure

    • Integration of RES-E

      • Feed-In of stored RES-E

        • For massive RES-E integration

      • Positive spinning reserve

    • Supporting RES-E with EVs

      • Intermittent storage

        • For high demand times

      • Bidirectional ancillary services

    • Integration of EVs

      • Bidirectional charging infrastructure

        • Enabling revenue for vehicle owners

    • Technical requirements for grid support

      • Feed-In during fault

      • Feed-In of stored Renewable Electricity

        • For benefits of EV development


    Integration of res e

    Technological Requirements for Co-Evolution

    Integration of RES-E

    • Distributed expansion of both RES-E and the grid will enable higher shares in North America

    • Smart Meter and Smart Grids enable the grid to provide more services to support RES. Extra-High Voltage (EHV) Transmission enhances electricity transmission from remote energy resources to demand centers

      • Demand side management and spinning reserve secure the balance between consumption and production of RES. Strong Smart Grid balances consumption and production of RES-E

        • The Feed-in of stored energy allows a massive integration of RES-E.

    Positive spinning reserve (bidirectional)

    Negative spinning reserve (unidirectional)

    Smart Grids

    Demand side management

    Growth in renewable energy sources

    Feed-in of stored renewable energy

    Smart Meter

    Distributed expansion

    Strong Smart Grid

    EHV transmission

    Voltage/ frequency stability

    Conventional grid

    Rising Penetration of EV and PHEV

    Today’s penetration of renewable energy sources can be handled with the conventional grid. The Nordic and the Canadian grids are prepared for large penetrations of renewable energy sources


    Technical requirements for grid support

    Technological Requirements for Co-Evolution

    Technical Requirements for grid support

    • Increased robustness and transmission efficiency are needed for a rising penetration of RES-E and EVs. To guarantee the frequency and voltage stability of the grid some simple regulations can be implemented in EVs.

      • Regulated charging can avoid overloads of assets. Automatic power distribution is the foundation of distribution of power according to demand.

        • Additional spinning reserve guarantees the balance of the grid. Strong Smart Grid manages the impact of RES-E and EVs and optimizes the demand satisfaction

          • Special strategies during fault times support the fast stabilization of the grid.

    Feed-in during a fault

    Additional spinning reserve

    Reduce energy demand during a fault

    Regulated charging to reduce overloads

    Growth in renewable energy sources

    Voltage stability

    Feed back to grid

    Frequency stability

    Automatic power distribution

    Increased robustness

    Strong Smart Grid

    Increased transmission efficiency

    Rising Penetration of EV and PHEV

    To support the grid for a rising penetration of RES-E and EVs, changes in the operating behavior might be necessary.


    Requirements for a high integration of evs

    Technological Requirements for Co-Evolution

    Requirements for a high integration of EVs

    • An accounting system and charging infrastructure are obligated as soon as possible. Both are currently being built in Nordic Countries.

      • To control the vehicles a communication infrastructure has to be established.

        • To provide V2G services more communication signals are required. With rising penetration of EV and RES-E, more charging/swapping infrastructure is needed.

          • A bidirectional power connection is required to earn revenue for the vehicle owner.

    Area-wide charging infrastructure

    Charging infrastructure - bidirectional

    Advanced ICT

    Growth in renewable energy sources

    Communication with local network stations

    Accounting system

    ICT

    Charging infrastructure in large-medium cities

    Pilot Charging infrastructure

    Information and Com- munication Stations

    Conventional grid

    Rising Penetration of EV and PHEV

    To integrate a significant amount of EV and PHEV, technical requirements have to be fulfilled.


    Supporting res with evs

    Technological Requirements for Co-Evolution

    Supporting RES with EVs

    • To reduce emissions in the transport sector, the highest benefit is generated if EVs and PHEVs charge RES-E. In China, large RES-E bases are constructed and EHV inter-grid transmission is needed to transmit the large amount of RES-E. In Europe and North America additional RES-E capacity will be distributed.

      • Regulated charging enables higher penetration rates.

        • Active load management and ancillary services can integrate energy from RES in times of an energy surplus

          • Intermittent storage of RES-E for high demand times!

    Intermittent storage of energy from RES

    Active load management storing energy from RES

    Growth in renewable energy sources

    Providing ancillary services (bidirectional)

    Charging with RES-E

    Regulated charging

    Providing ancillary services (unidirectional)

    Major RE bases

    Long distance Transmission

    Unregulated charging

    Rising Penetration of EV and PHEV

    Electrical vehicles profit not only from the collaboration with RES, they can support a high penetration of RES in the grid!


    Policy frameworks are developing towards co evolution

    Opportunities for Co-Evolution

    Policy frameworks are developing towards Co-Evolution


    Co evolution faces cultural and economic barriers

    Challenges for Co-Evolution

    Co-Evolution faces cultural and economic barriers


    Policies from one region might be interesting options for others

    Context – Needed Policies for Co-Evolution

    Policies from one region might be interesting options for others


    Two phase long term policy approach needed for large scale co evolution of evs and res e

    Co-Evolution – Feasibility of policy options

    Two-phase long-term policy approach needed for large scale Co-Evolution of EVs and RES-E

    Phase 1

    Market

    Preparation

    Phase 2

    Deployment


    Regulatory framework

    Co-Evolution – Feasibility of policy options

    Regulatory framework

    Phase 1

    • Emission targets for electricity production and vehicle fleets warrant other support policies

    • Targets for the deployment of electric vehicles are an incentive for first deployments

    • Standards for vehicles and infrastructure provide security for manufacturers

    • Consequence

      • Legitimate base for further policies

      • Opposition from the people (North America)

    • Feasibility

      • Feasible in all regions

      • Emission targets are more easily implemented for electricity than for existing vehicle fleets

      • Standards have to be based on technological consideration and have to be implemented quickly


    Build up of infrastructure

    Co-Evolution – Feasibility of policy options

    Build-up of infrastructure

    Phase 1

    • Governments support Electric Vehicles by building up charging infrastructure

    • Consequence

      • Good network possible also for rural areas

        • Costs for society

    • Feasibility

      • May be feasible in China

      • Highly unlikely in Europe and North AmericaHowever, subsidies for the construction of new charging infrastructure are feasible


    Coupling renewable energy and electric vehicles

    Co-Evolution – Feasibility of policy options

    Coupling Renewable Energy and Electric Vehicles

    • Hard Coupling

      • Electricity for charging electric vehicles is coupled to the absolute additional RES-E share in the electricity mix

    • Cap and Trade

      • Electricity production or the deployment of vehicles have to fulfill emission targets (cap)

      • Any additional demand for electricity or additional deployment of vehicles has to be provided from carbon-neutral sources or has to be compensated by GHG emissions reduction measures applied to other emitters that are part of the system (trade)

    • Manufacturers’ investments in RES-E

      • Vehicle manufacturers can count their electric vehicles as zero-emission vehicles if they finance new RES-E production

    • Grid Stabilization Bonus

      • System Operators pay this bonus for plugged-in electric vehicles that can either provide demand side management or ancillary services

    • Tax Exemptions for Charging RES-E

      • Electric vehicles are only eligible for tax exemptions if they charge RES-E

    • Re-Investing electricity tax from charging current


    Tax exemptions for charging res e

    Co-Evolution – Feasibility of policy options

    Tax Exemptions for Charging RES-E

    Phase 1

    • Vehicles are eligible for tax exemptions if they charge RES-E

    • Exemptions from annual vehicle/ motor/ circulation taxes

    • Consequence

    • Additional RES-E

    • Cost benefits for EV owners as an incentive

      • Increased willingness to plug in?

    • Costs

    • Advanced billing system and separate metering needed

  • Feasibility

    • Feasible for low penetrations of EVs.

    • Phase-out for higher penetrations

    • EV owners have to be able to exclusively charge RES-E

  • Feasible in all regions


  • Re investing electricity tax

    Co-Evolution – Feasibility of policy options

    Re-Investing Electricity Tax

    Phase 1

    • The electricity tax from the traction current is invested in additional RES-E

    • Consequence

    • Additional RES-E

    • Special electricity tariff/ separate metering for EVs needed

    • Market distortion in deregulated markets

  • Feasibility

    • Feasible in all regions

    • In North America this option might be possible only within one interconnection-area


  • Hard coupling

    Co-Evolution – Feasibility of policy options

    Hard Coupling

    Phase 1

    • Coupling electricity for EVs and absolute RES-E Targets

      • Additional EVs have to be met with additional RES-E capacity

    • Consequence

      • EVs powered by pure additional RES-E

      • Costs (user & society)

    • Feasibility

      • Unlikely for North America, because profitability is key for public acceptance of both EVs and RES-E

      • Feasible for Europe but concerns exist that this option may slow down EV or RES-E deployment

      • In China – based on policies until today – this option is unlikely. However, if RES-E production is increased significantly and charging business models are set up, Hard Coupling may become feasible


    Manufacturers investments in res e

    Co-Evolution – Feasibility of policy options

    Manufacturers‘ investments in RES-E

    Phase 1

    • EVs are considered Zero Emission Vehicles (ZEV) in return for investments in renewable electricity

      • OEMs invest in additional renewable electricity production (depending on MJ/km per sold EV)

      • DSOs invest energy tax for traction current in additional RES-E

    • Consequence

      • Additional RES-E

      • Can lead to more emissions from ICEVs – Coupling to fleet emission standards!

      • Conflicts of interests possible

    • Feasibility

      • Feasible in Europe, has to be introduced for all countries

      • The vertically integrated electricity markets in China and North America may impede implementation (if OEMs are new players in the market)


    Cap and trade

    Co-Evolution – Feasibility of policy options

    Cap and Trade

    Phase 2

    • A Cap and Trade system for fleet emissions per vehicle manufacturer

      • Comparable to the ETS and other C&T systems, emission targets will be adjusted over time

      • Earnings from the emission certificates trading can be invested into new RES-E

    • Consequence

      • Additional RES-E / CCS

      • Needs strong regulatory framework

      • Takes effect only on new vehicles

    • Feasibility

    • Feasible in all countries

    • Less likely in North America and China because national Cap and Trade systems for GHG emissions do not exist yet.


    Grid stabilization bonus

    Co-Evolution – Feasibility of policy options

    Grid Stabilization Bonus

    Phase 2

    • EVs receive a bonus payment for plugging in and thus being available for storage and feed-in of volatile RES-E

    • Consequence

      • Better RES-E utilization

      • Stable grids

      • Advanced metering and implementation (billing!) needed

    • Feasibility

      • This option is only feasible, if advanced metering (bidirectional!) is already installed on a large scale

      • Profitability is key for successful implementation

      • First Countries: Italy, Sweden, Norway ?


    12 july 2011

    Co-Evolution – Feasibility of policy options

    A policy framework for the transition towards a sustainable transport sector is in process in Europe

    • Today – Current directives

      • Increase of RE-share in Primary Energy mix

      • 10% share of RE in land-based transport by 2020

    • Future – White Paper on future transport

      • Focus on Cities

      • New Concept of mobility – Systems’ approach

      • Long term objectives, legal & regulatory framework, open standards, interoperability

        • Revision of the Directive on Energy Taxation

        • Internalize externalities & eliminate distortionary subsidies

        • Replacing CO2-standards with energy efficiency standards

        • Speed limits

        • Revision of driving license directive


    12 july 2011

    Co-Evolution – Technology Roadmap

    time

    Penetration rate of electric vehicles


    Two phase development for co evolution

    Co-Evolution – Two Phase Roadmap

    Two Phase Development for Co-Evolution

    • Phase 1 (Today – 2015):

      • Market preparation

      • Pilot projects and other incentives for RES-E and EVs

      • Cost reduction and quality improvement

      • Standardization

    • Phase 2 (Future):

      • Measures aiming at increased deployment and system integration

      • Cooperation between all actors is key

    • This two phase development and its stakeholders are presented for each region on the following slides.


    North america consumer demand drives co evolution

    Co-Evolution – Two Phase Roadmap

    North America – Consumer demand drives Co-Evolution

    • Actors

      • Government/ Regulators – federal support unlikely

      • Electricity sector – nationwide bidirectional smart grid highly unlikely

      • Vehicle manufacturers – production capacity from conventional manufacturers needed

    • Phase 1:

      • Local change

        • Implementation of RES-E and EV support policies

        • Deployment targets for RES-E and EVs

        • Pilot projects in public-private-partnerships

      • Increasingly strict national and local fuel efficiency standards and consumer demand drive EV production

      • Grid reinforcement and charging infrastructure develop alongside EV deployment

      • Public information campaigns

    • Phase 2:

      • Increasing demand drives EV deployment and infrastructure change

      • Unbundling of the electricity sector is promoted for easier market penetration

      • V2G pilot projects

      • Consumer demand for V2G and FIT


    Actors for co evolution

    Co-Evolution – Actors

    Actors for Co-Evolution


    Europe adaptation of existing policies leads to co evolution

    Co-Evolution – Two Phase Roadmap

    Europe – Adaptation of existing policies leads to Co-Evolution

    • Actors

      • Governments/ European institutions

      • Vehicle Manufacturers

      • System Operators

      • Utilities

    • Phase 1:

      • Vehicle charges and taxes are revised (external costs and environmental performance criteria)

      • Further growth of RES-E production – Continuation and revision of RES-E support policies

      • Harmonization of standards across Europe

      • Coordinated network development and system integration

      • V2G pilot projects

      • Information campaigns

    • Phase 2:

      • Full internalization of external costs

      • Further GHG emission reduction policies

      • Europe-wide charging infrastructure


    Actors for co evolution1

    Co-Evolution – Actors

    Actors for Co-Evolution


    China rapid production increases drive co evolution

    Co-Evolution – Two Phase Roadmap

    China – Rapid production increases drive Co-Evolution

    • Actors

      • Government

      • Vehicle Manufacturers

      • Electricity Sector

    • Phase 1:

      • Nationwide standardization

      • Development of low-speed low-cost EVs for the mass market

      • Construction of major RES-E bases for a 25% share in the electricity mix

      • Increase long-distance transmission capacity and develop smart grid technology

      • Provide incentives to both manufacturers and private consumers, and attract investment from private equity

    • Phase 2:

      • Long-distance transmission of electricity from remote resources

      • Improved batteries make EVs competitive with conventional cars

      • Nationwide availability of charging infrastructure and V2G


    Actors for co evolution2

    Co-Evolution – Actors

    Actors for Co-Evolution


    Chapters4

    Table of Contents

    Chapters

    • Context

      • Regional Economic and Transport-related Background

      • Electric Vehicles

      • RES-E and Grid

    • Opportunities & Challenges for Co-Evolution

    • Conclusions


    12 july 2011

    Conclusions

    Consistent long term policy is required for stimulating large scale introduction of EVs and Co-Evolution with RES-E

    • Provide security of investment for car industry and infrastructure providers (Security of the existing tax exemptions )

      • Mandatory targets for EV-numbers and RES-E share

      • Standards development

      • Investments in infrastructure

    • Involve a variety of actors

    • Coordinate network development and system integration to allow high penetrations of EV and RES-E

      • This is already taking place in the national Nordic TSO's and in the context of ENTSO-E

      • Grid reinforcement and upgrade

      • RET integration

      • Coordinate system integration among grids and vehicle/battery manufacturers


    Actions for co evolution s stakeholders

    Conclusions

    Actions for Co-Evolution‘s stakeholders

    • Government and regulators

      • Determine regulatory and market solutions that can mobilize private sector investments

      • Determine regulatory solutions that link EV deployment and RES-E

      • Infrastructure strategy should reflect regional needs and conditions

      • Plan for evolution in regulation along with technology development

      • Invest in research, development and demonstration (RD&D) that address system-wide and broad-range sectoral issues, and that provide insights into behavioral aspects of EV use and RES-E charging.

      • Lead education on the value of EVs with respect to environmental benefits and lessening fear of performance restrictions

    • International governmental organizations

      • Co-ordinate international standardization issues for cross-national compatibility

      • Support the RD&D of EV system solutions for developing countries through targeted analysis, roadmapping exercises and capacity building.

      • Support international collaboration on and dissemination of RD&D on EVs and infrastructure, including business and regulatory experiences.


    Actions for co evolution s stakeholders1

    Conclusions

    Actions for Co-Evolution’s stakeholders

    • TSOs/ DSOs

      • Help develop business models that ensure all stakeholders and customers share risks, costs and benefits.

      • Promote adoption of real-time energy-usage information and pricing

      • Co-operate with OEMs for interoperability standards and post-installation support

    • Utilities

      • System stabilizing bonus for plugged EVs that provide flexibility to increase use of variable generation?

      • Co-operation with regulators to facilitate implementation of RES-E and EV connection to the grid

    • OEMs

      • International strategy and standards for interoperability of system components thus reducing risk of technology obsolescence

      • Address concerns with technology system integration, long-term post-installation support and security and reliability

      • Aggressive marketing and information campaigns for EVs


    North america europe

    Conclusions

    North America & Europe

    • Cities and urban areas will be breeding grounds for EV deployment and charging infrastructure

      • EV expansion to rural areas is highly unlikely in the medium term due to infrastructure and social acceptance issues

      • In Phase 1 EVs will not feed back power to the grid outside of pilot projects

      • No problems arise in European grids for the projected low shares of EVs

    • Measures for increased deployment:

      • Support policies (subsidies, tax benefits and other support policies)

      • Battery cost reduction / improved performance

      • Public information campaigns

    • Measures for system integration

      • Get ISO’s involved in pilot projects or local development projects

      • Grid upgrades and smart grid development to allow for bi-directionality and regulation

      • Regulate grid expansion as a part of a feed-in tariff program (eg. suggested for Province of Ontario)


    China co evolution requires changes in renewable electricity and electric vehicles deployment

    Conclusions

    China – Co-Evolution requires changes in renewable electricity and electric vehicles deployment

    • Both grid and battery technology require technological innovation in China in order to support the integration of EV and RE

    • Charging models must be matched with RE grid interaction models in order to take advantage of clean energy in EVs, and suitable business models need to be developed

    • Emphasis should be on increasing overall RE on the grid

      • At this time, China is focusing on large-scale RE including wind and solar projects, with little attention paid to distributed RE generation.

      • Private power plants are not approved in China at this time. All power must enter the grid and be downloaded from the grid.

    • There should also be an emphasis on increasing population of EVs – to the scale of millions of vehicles.

      • It is unlikely that smart grid will be economically viable or technologically useful without such large numbers.

      • Incentives are needed for both vehicles and grid companies in order to attain a critical mass of vehicles and smart grid participants.


    Comparison of regions characteristics

    Conclusions

    Comparison of regionsCharacteristics


    Policy recommendations by region

    Conclusion

    Policy Recommendations by Region


    Comparison of regions lessons learned so far

    Conclusions

    Comparison of regionsLessons learned so far

    • Outcome of pilot projects:

      • EVs alone cannot solve traffic problems – an integrated approach and a new concept of transport are necessary

      • User acceptance:

        • EVs for a set purpose are well accepted

      • Business cases:

        • Car-sharing/ Mobility Partnerships for commuting

      • Usage patterns:

        • Local solutions for traffic problems and personal mobility

    • Influence of RES-E deployment and potential

      • Potential for RES-E not fully exhausted yet

      • Sustainability of RES-E for EVs absolutely vital for ecological benefits

      • Electricity tariffs that guarantee RES-E for charging EVs are needed


    Comparison of regions lessons learned so far1

    Conclusions

    Comparison of regionsLessons learned so far

    • Policy options & public acceptance

      • An uninformed public does not accept EV promotion “from above”

      • Information campaigns on the benefits of EVs needed

        • Including financial, fiscal and non-monetary benefits for users

    • Policies furthering EVs and RES-E have to be adapted to regional characteristics

      • Important regional differences between policies in Phase 1

      • Possible synergies between regions in Phase 2

    • Skepticism regarding Co-Evolution

      • Low RES-E shares reduce benefits

      • Technological and regulatory hindrances in foreground


    Follow up work

    Conclusions

    Follow-up work

    • Analysis of the outcome of the different pilot projects

      • Which co-operations were fruitful and why

      • What makes EVs successful

      • Experience with Co-Evolution

    • Appraisal of technical / grid-related boundaries and barriers to Co-Evolution

    • Impact Assessment of policy options


    Table of annexes

    Table of Annexes

    A1 – Acronyms

    A2 – References

    A3 – List of subsidies and incentives for EVs

    A4 – Pilot projects in the three regions

    A5 – Policies concerning EV deployment

    A6 – List of available EV models

    A7 – Standards

    A8 – Renewable Energy policies

    A9 – Expected growth in electricity sector

    A10 – Revenue from Ancillary services for EVs

    A11 – Impact of EVs on grids and production

    A12 – Two phase development of Co-Evolution

    A13 – Road infrastructure


    12 july 2011

    THANK YOU!

    For additional information on RETD

    Online: www.iea-retd.org

    Contact: [email protected]


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