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French Nat. Report (Mercator Océan): Planned future activities and examples of demonstration

French Nat. Report (Mercator Océan): Planned future activities and examples of demonstration. Eric Dombrowsky. Outline. Major achievements during GoDAE The present capacity Services developed (examples) The next phase. Outline. Major achievements during GoDAE The present capacity

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French Nat. Report (Mercator Océan): Planned future activities and examples of demonstration

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  1. French Nat. Report (Mercator Océan):Planned future activities and examples of demonstration Eric Dombrowsky

  2. Outline • Major achievements during GoDAE • The present capacity • Services developed (examples) • The next phase Eric Dombrowsky - Final IGST - Washington - 2-4 June 08

  3. Outline • Major achievements during GoDAE • The present capacity • Services developed (examples) • The next phase Eric Dombrowsky - Final IGST - Washington - 2-4 June 08

  4. Major achievements during GoDAEfrom 1997 Fort de France meeting (1/2) • Mercator Océan established • Legal entity owned by CNES, CNRS, IRD, IFREMER, Météo-France and SHOM • Mercator Océan is an operational, global, real-time ocean forecast service provider • Its activity follows 3 main axes: • Exploit and maintain real-time numerical ocean forecast systems • Exploitation, production, expertise and qualification • Maintenance • Ensure service level as required by its users, and promotes the development of downstream services at the Global scale • Dedicated/generic services • Communication, outreach • Prepare service evolutions to maintain service qualityclose to the state of the art • Innovation, development, integration of new functionalities • Prototyping, … Eric Dombrowsky - Final IGST - Washington - 2-4 June 08

  5. Major achievements during GoDAEfrom 1997 Fort de France meeting (2/2) • System suite developed and operated • North Atlantic + Med eddy resolving (routine) • Global eddy permitting (routine) and low resolution (routine) •  Global eddy resolving (demo in April 2008) • Methodology defined, and tools implemented for assessment and validation • GoDAE Metrics • Links with data centers developed • CORIOLIS for the In Situ observing system • SSALTO/DUACS for the altimetry • Météo-France for the SST (to evolve within MyOcean) and Forcing • Connection with other operational oceanography centers established • Within EU-GMES: UKMO, NERSC, INGV, DMI, DFO • Bilateral collaborations • MOON (Med sea), GOAPP (DFO/EC Canada), … • International • GoDAE, EuroGOOS, … Eric Dombrowsky - Final IGST - Washington - 2-4 June 08

  6. The model configurations 1 point sur 12 ORCA025 ORCA12 ATL12 NEATL36 • 1 code : NEMO (OPA9+LIM) • 1 grid : all the configurations are on the same ORCA (tripolar) grid • One single input dataset : initialization and forcing interpolated inline • Some of these configurations are shared with the scientific and operational community • ORCA025: Drakkar and Glorys Project, Barnier et al. • UKMO, CMCC, EC, DFO, … Eric Dombrowsky - Final IGST - Washington - 2-4 June 08

  7. The assimilation scheme: SAM2(Kalman Filter type) V(k) Hbar U(k) S(k) T(k) Ubar , Vbar Ψ + Ugeo , Vgeo T , S  SAM2v1: SEEK filter using multivariate 3D modes Model initialisation SAM2 kernel SEEK Analysis Control Space Barotropic U, V Modal Space (Reduced Space) Baroclinic 3D modes acting on 3D space Eric Dombrowsky - Final IGST - Washington - 2-4 June 08

  8. Outline • Achievements (system development) during GoDAE • The present capacity • Services developed (examples) • The next phase Eric Dombrowsky - Final IGST - Washington - 2-4 June 08

  9. Several model configurations operated for several uses • Regional eddy resolving (2002) • North Atlantic + Mediterranean • operational: 5-7 km, OPA8, ROOI assimilation of alti. T/S and SST • From April 2008: 1/12° (6.5 km at 45°N), NEMO/LIM, SEEK assim. of alti, T/S and SST, daily fcst • Target: mesoscale upper ocean, downscaling to smaller regional and coastal regions, … • Global eddy permitting (09/2005 ) • operational: ¼°, OPA8, ROOI assimilation of alti only • From April 2008: ¼°, NEMO/LIM, SEEK assim. of alti, T/S and SST • Has been operated in demo mode during Mersea TOP2: AprilSept 2007 • Target: global ocean climate monitoring, biology, sea ice, reanalysis, … • Global low resolution (05/2004 ) • Today: 2°, OPA8, SEEK assim of alti, T/S and SST • Target: oceanic initial conditions for coupled seasonal prediction, reanalysis • Global eddy resolving (to be operational at the end of MyOcean) • NEMO/LIM+SEEK 1/12° • Has been demonstrated in April 2008 • Target: Global Marine Core Service and downscaling to European regions • Northeastern Atlantic high resolution (to be operational at the end of MyOcean) • NEMO 1/36° +SEEK + Tidal free surface • Target: IBIROOS Marine Core Service  Boundary data to coastal systems Eric Dombrowsky - Final IGST - Washington - 2-4 June 08

  10. System performance: SLAGlobal 1/4° (Left) versus Global 1/12° (Right) Nov 07 Apr 08 Nov 07 Apr 08 + ~ = + Eric Dombrowsky - Final IGST - Washington - 2-4 June 08

  11. System performance: T and S biasesGlobal 1/4° (Left) versus Global 1/12° (Right) ~ = + - + Temperature Temperature +/-0.5° +/-0.5° Salinity Salinity +/-0.05 Psu +/-0.05 Psu Eric Dombrowsky - Final IGST - Washington - 2-4 June 08

  12. System performance: T and S RMSDIFGlobal 1/4° (Left) versus Global 1/12° (Right) Temperature Temperature 0.5° 0.5° Salinity Salinity 0.1 Psu 0.1 Psu Eric Dombrowsky - Final IGST - Washington - 2-4 June 08

  13. T/S Global (1/4°) overall performances1-year average (2007). Left: Bias, Right: RMSdiff 600m 600m +/- 0.5°C 0.5 °C 0.1 Psu +/- 0.1 Psu Temp Temp Sal Sal Eric Dombrowsky - Final IGST - Washington - 2-4 June 08

  14. Mercator 1/12° April 21 2008 Mercator 1/4 April 21 2008 OSTIA April 21 2008 Eric Dombrowsky - Final IGST - Washington - 2-4 June 08

  15. Mercator 1/12° - 20m salinity - April 29 2008 Eric Dombrowsky - Final IGST - Washington - 2-4 June 08

  16. Mercator 1/12° - 100m salinity - April 21 2008 Mercator 1/12° - 100m salinity - April 29 2008 Eric Dombrowsky - Final IGST - Washington - 2-4 June 08

  17. Outline • Achievements (system development) during GoDAE • The present capacity • Services developed (examples) • The next phase Eric Dombrowsky - Final IGST - Washington - 2-4 June 08

  18. Use of Mercator products for Navy operations: acoustically interpretive products The French Navy (SHOM) has been developing Operational Ocean Forecating Systems since 1990: the SOAP program These systems rely now on Mercator products Thickness of the surface duct Exploitability of the surface duct Indicator: green: good conditions, Red: no conditions Sea Surface Temperature From MERCATOR system From Jourdan et al. Eric Dombrowsky - Final IGST - Washington - 2-4 June 08

  19. [S1] Delineated eddies and frontsFrench Navy product based on Mercator Front and eddies with potential acoustic impact detected by Navy forecasters and delivered to Navy headquarters for operations at sea Eric Dombrowsky - Final IGST - Washington - 2-4 June 08

  20. Expertise added byMercator Ocean Forecasters Example of Real-time bulletin: 29 March 2006 in the Gulf of Mexico • Assimilation: • 2 on 3 Sat on duty, and some interest area are almost not covered. • No in-situ observations assimilated . • Model : • The model is a bit late, with the persistence of a small residual error in the south of the LCE. • The LC stream is confirmed by satellite SSH map and AVHRR data. • The LCE is well located compared to AVHRR data. • Overall situation : • On north : • The new LCE is moving westerly along the sigsbee escarpment while the second LCE is virtually stationary. • On south : • The CARE is crossing the YS, and increase the stability and intensity of the LC, this one is retracted (mode 1) On duty during all the period Number of tracks Date of the lastest tracks Nowcast on March 29th JASON 6 25 March ENVISAT 0 13 March GFO 4 24 March Eric Dombrowsky - Final IGST - Washington - 2-4 June 08

  21. Monitoring surface current to follow drifting objects Eric Dombrowsky - Final IGST - Washington - 2-4 June 08

  22. Indicator WEB service Available regions map Thematic menu http://www.mersea.eu.org/Indicators-with-B4G.html • E.g., SST monitoring in European waters Soulat and Messal, 2008 Eric Dombrowsky - Final IGST - Washington - 2-4 June 08

  23. Tropical Cyclone MonitoringExample: RAMASSUN (May 2008) Guess cyclone fate from Ocean near surface heat content • Bulletin Input • Displacement from (1ON: 130E) towards (40N:120E) • Ocean bulletin: • significant intensification in the next 48 hr • significant weakening north of 20°N Buarque, 2008 Eric Dombrowsky - Final IGST - Washington - 2-4 June 08

  24. Tropical Cyclone DEAN (August 2008) Eric Dombrowsky - Final IGST - Washington - 2-4 June 08

  25. Cyclone NARGIS (May 2008) Eric Dombrowsky - Final IGST - Washington - 2-4 June 08

  26. Observing systems impact studies:Impact of altimetry on analysis and forecast accuracy • Results of an Observing System Experiment (OSE) • All experiment: • North Atlantic + Med eddy resolving system (1/15°) • Multivariate assimilation of SLA+SST+T/S profiles • 1 year integration (2004) Benkiran, 2008 Eric Dombrowsky - Final IGST - Washington - 2-4 June 08

  27. [S5]Observing systems impact studies:Impact of altimeter data coverage • Assim of: In situ T/S + RTG SST + • No alt • Jason • Jason + Envisat • Jason + Envisat + GFO (baseline) • Jason + Envisat + GFO + T/P • Progressive loss ( ) Shown here diags from innovation: Obs (not yet assimilated) - Forecast Full domain RMS(Obs-Expi)-RMS(Obs-Baseline) RMS(Obs) POMME region Cape Verde region > 0 means degradation in % 0 is the baseline (3 sats) < 0 means improvement in % Benkiran, 2008 Eric Dombrowsky - Final IGST - Washington - 2-4 June 08

  28. Observing systems impact studiesImpact of ARGO (low resolution global) improved forecast scores thanks to ARGO network Number of observations ARGO deployment :start: 2002 Now: ~3000 floats Global Ocean,Salinity 7-day forecast misfit NINO 4 box (Trop. Pacific), Salinity 7-day forecast misfit NINO 4 box (Trop. Pacific),Temperature 7-day forecast misfit Eric Dombrowsky - Final IGST - Washington - 2-4 June 08

  29. Outline • Achievements (system development) during GoDAE • The present capacity • Services developed (examples) • The next phase Eric Dombrowsky - Final IGST - Washington - 2-4 June 08

  30. Future developments • System • Global eddy resolving (1/12°) • Enhanced capacity on North Atlantic + Med • High resolution (1/36°) in the Iberian Biscay Irish region (IBIROOS) • Collaboration with Spain • Services • RT: • Transition to operational services within MyOcean 2010 • Daily service of short-term forecast O(1 week) GLO1/4+NATL1/12 • Weekly assimilation and medium range forecast O(2 weeks) • Operational backup at UKMO for global and NATL+MED • Reanalysis: • GLORYS: 20-years reanalysis (altimetry era) within MyOcean 2010 • Longer reanalysis: collaboration with ECMWF Eric Dombrowsky - Final IGST - Washington - 2-4 June 08

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