Rpm explorer a web based tool for interactive portfolio decision analysis
Download
1 / 17

RPM-Explorer - A Web-based Tool for Interactive Portfolio Decision Analysis - PowerPoint PPT Presentation


RPM-Explorer - A Web-based Tool for Interactive Portfolio Decision Analysis Erkka Jalonen and Ahti Salo Systems Analysis Laboratory Helsinki University of Technology P.O. Box 1100, 02015 TKK, Finland http://www.sal.tkk.fi firstname.lastname@tkk.fi Robust Portfolio Modelling (RPM)

Related searches for RPM-Explorer - A Web-based Tool for Interactive Portfolio Decision Analysis

loader
I am the owner, or an agent authorized to act on behalf of the owner, of the copyrighted work described.
capcha

Download Presentation

RPM-Explorer - A Web-based Tool for Interactive Portfolio Decision Analysis

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation

Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author.While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server.


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - E N D - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Presentation Transcript


Rpm explorer a web based tool for interactive portfolio decision analysis l.jpg
RPM-Explorer - A Web-based Tool for Interactive Portfolio Decision Analysis

Erkka Jalonen and Ahti Salo

Systems Analysis Laboratory

Helsinki University of Technology

P.O. Box 1100, 02015 TKK, Finland

http://www.sal.tkk.fi

firstname.lastname@tkk.fi


Robust portfolio modelling rpm l.jpg
Robust Portfolio Modelling (RPM)

  • Extends Preference Programming to portfolio problems

    • A subset of project proposals is selected in view of multiple evaluation criteria

    • Project and portfolio value expressed as a weighted sum of criteria scores

    • Admits incomplete information about criterion weights and projects’ scores

  • Focus on non-dominated portfolios (NDP)

    • A rational DM would not choose a dominated portfolio  focus on NDPs

    • All NDPs are computed with specialised algorithms

    • Core Index value convey the share of NPDs that contain a given project

  • Liesiö, Mild, Salo (2006). Preference Programming for Robust Portfolio Modeling and Project Selection, EJOR (to appear).


Impact of additional information 1 2 l.jpg
Impact of Additional Information (1/2)

  • Dominance relations depend on the information set S

    • Loose statements lead to a large number of non-dominated portfolios (NDP)

    • Complete information typically leads to a unique portfolio

  • Additional information makes the set of NDPs smaller

    • This information is modelled through a smaller weight set ( ) and/or narrower score intervals ( )

    • Several preference elicitation methods can be employed

    • No new portfolio can become non-dominated

  • Elicitation efforts can be focused on borderline projects

    • Additional information affects the Core Index of borderline projects only

    • Narrower score intervals needed for borderline projects only


Impact of additional information 2 2 l.jpg
Impact of Additional Information (2/2)

  • No information  A rank-ordering

  • 542 NDPs  109 NDPs

  • 104 borderline projects  64 borderline projects


Decision support in rpm l.jpg
Decision Support in RPM

Selected

Core projects

 choose

Large set of projects

Multiple criteria

Resource and portfolio constraints

Add. core

Preceding core proj.

Additional information

Decision rules, heuristics

Loose statements on weights and scores

Borderline projects focus on

Borderline

Not selected

Add. exter.

Compute non-dom. portfolios

Negotiation, iteration

Update ND portfolios

Exterior proj.

 discard

Preceding exterior


Rpm explorer background l.jpg
RPM-Explorer - Background

  • Old: Analyses often suggest a single optimal solution

    • Recommendation often stated in written documents

    • Such documents provide little support for the interactive exploration of results

  • New: Provide an interactive interface to the analysis

    • Allow stakeholders to specify their preferences about the importance of criteria

    • Produce decision recommendations based on the stakeholders’ preferences

    • Visualise decision recommendations for projects based on Core Index values

    • Make use of widely available communication technologies (=Internet)


Decision support tools for rpm l.jpg
Decision Support Tools for RPM

E.g

Opinions-Online©(voting tool)

RPM-Explorer©

RPM-Solver©

Selected

Core projects

 choose

Large set of projects

Multiple criteria

Resource and portfolio constraints

Add. core

Preeding core proj.

Additional information

Decision rules, heuristics

Loose statements on weights and scores

Borderline projects focus on

Borderline

Not selected

Add. exter.

Compute non-dom. portfolios

Negotiation, iteration

Update ND portfolios

Exterior proj.

 discard

Preceding exterior


Application of rpm explorer case study 1 4 l.jpg
Application of RPM-Explorer - Case Study (1/4)

  • Development of the strategic research agenda for the Association of Packaging Industry in Finland

  • Collaborative consultation process

    (i) producing research themes (70 participants)

    (ii) commenting and elaboration of themes (the same participants as in previous phase)

    (iii) evaluating of themes (10 evaluators)

    (iv) analysing them first personally and then

    jointly in a workshop (15 decicion makers)

  • Research themes treated as ’projects’


Application of rpm explorer case study 2 4 l.jpg
Application of RPM-Explorer - Case Study (2/4)

  • Themes (~80) evaluated with regard to three criteria

    (i) innovativeness

    (ii) feasibility

    (iii) relevance

    • evaluated on a 1-to-7 Likert-scale

    • theme-specific scores computed as the mean of evaluators’ ratings

  • Results communicated by RPM-Explorer and as pdf-documents

  • Interactive analysis of themes with DMs in two workshops

    • First one with the Board of the Association (14 leading industrialists)

    • Second with 10 including external stakeholders


Application of rpm explorer case study 3 4 l.jpg
Application of RPM-Explorer - Case Study (3/4)

Theme

Producers

Decision

Makers

ThemeEvaluators

RPM-Explorer

analysis applet

Internet

Opinions-Online ©

questionnaire software

RPM-

Solver

analysis

software

RPM-Explorer

configuration

files

Opinions-

Online©

Database


Application of rpm explorer case study 4 4 l.jpg
Application of RPM-Explorer - Case Study (4/4)

  • An Example: Theme Group 4: Packaging Materials


Rpm explorer in use 1 2 l.jpg
RPM-Explorer in Use (1/2)

Specifications of preferences results in corresponding adjustments in real-time


Rpm explorer in use 2 2 l.jpg
RPM-Explorer in Use (2/2)

Several visualization tools

Explicit support for project selection


Rpm explorer conclusions l.jpg
RPM-Explorer - Conclusions

  • Positive feedback from users

    • RMP-Explorer clearly stimulated workshop discussions

  • Generic software for many problem contexts and uses

    • Personal learning through Internet-mediated preference analysis

    • Collaborative decision making in facilitated workshops

  • Software may introduce several benefits

    • Decision making: Personal interests, sensitivity analyses

    • Communication: Increased commitment, enhanced understanding

    • Information elicitation: Guidance for focusing the elicitation efforts


Rpm decisions 1 2 l.jpg
RPM-Decisions© (1/2)

  • RPM-Decisions©

    • Combines RPM-Solver and RPM-Explorer

    • Under intensive development

    • Demo available

  • New Features

    • Web-interface to analysis (RPM-Explorer)

    • Criteria hierarchies

    • Project interdependencies

    • Soft budget constraints

  • www.rpm.tkk.fi


Rpm decisions 2 2 l.jpg
RPM-Decisions© (2/2)

  • Spread-sheet form data input

    • Scores, costs and constraints

    • Preference elicitation wizard

    • Constraint wizards

  • Computation

    • Approximative algorithms for large problems

    • Exact algorithms for up to 70 projects

  • Interactive analysis

    • Core indexes, decision rules, robustness

    • Score scatter plots, additional information

    • Export for interactive analysis web-interface


On going rpm applications l.jpg
On-going RPM Applications

  • Management of infrastructure assets

    • Optimization of road and bridge maintenance and repair programmes

    • Allocation of resources among different asset classes in view of multiple criteria

  • Voluntary conservation of forest reserves

    • Evaluation of conservation value of sites offered by forest owners

    • Design of optimal decision analytic evaluation process

  • Innovation management

    • Valuation of intellectual property rights (Nokia Wireless Technologies)

    • Evaluation of longitudinal data from innovation programmes (Salo et al., 2006)

    • Solicitation, commenting, evaluation and selection of innovation themes


ad
  • Login