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Jean-Claude Baumgarten President. Overview. The Global Economy and its impact on Travel & Tourism The 2007 simulated Tourism Satellite Accounts Basic concepts Developments in 2006 Prospects for 2007 and the coming decade The major stories: The surge in the Middle East

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Overview

  • The Global Economy and its impact on Travel & Tourism

  • The 2007 simulated Tourism Satellite Accounts

    • Basic concepts

    • Developments in 2006

    • Prospects for 2007 and the coming decade

  • The major stories:

    • The surge in the Middle East

    • China’s growing role in Travel & Tourism

  • Key implications – Breaking Barriers, Managing Growth







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Simulated Tourism Satellite Accounting…

  • Based on United Nations TSA Framework

  • WTTC Simulated TSA - For 16 Years

  • Year on Year research for 176 countries

  • Travel & Tourism Economy contribution Constructed from international data sources

  • Compare Apples with Apples




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World

2006 saw further broad-based strength in the tourism economy. In 2007, growth is not expected to be quite so dynamic as in 2006 as growth moves generally closer to the trend rates embodied in the 10-year annualized forecast.


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TRAVEL & TOURISM ECONOMY GDP THE WORLD

World Average

Caribbean

Oceania

North Africa

Middle East

European Union

Southeast Asia

Northeast Asia

2007 T&T Economy GDP

(Percent of Total)

Other Western Europe

Central and Eastern Europe

North America

Latin America

Sub-Saharan Africa

South Asia

T&T Economy GDP Growth 2008-2017

(Percent Annualized)



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WTTC’s Top Ten Industry Growers - Demand

(2008-2017 Annualized Real Growth, Percent)

1 Montenegro 10.1

2 China 9.1

3 India 7.9

4 Croatia 7.8

5 Congo, Dem Rep 7.8

6 Vietnam 7.5

7 Romania 7.4

8 Namibia 7.1

9 Hong Kong 7.0

10 Chad 7.0


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WTTC’s Top Ten Job Creators

(2008-2017 Employment Growth, Jobs)

1 China 3,222,280

2 India 2,714,890

3 Brazil 1,896,923

4 Japan 1,868,803

5 Mexico 1,321,671

6 US 1,085,700

7 Vietnam 890,916

8 Pakistan 828,640

9 Spain 812,779

10 France 808,848



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World Average

Venezuela 5.4

Suriname 5.2

Costa Rica 4.7

Brazil 4.3

Peru 4.2

Belize 4.1

Bolivia 4.1

Chile 4.0

Uruguay 3.7

Argentina 3.6

Guyana 3.6

Honduras 3.5

Nicaragua 3.5

Panama 3.5

Colombia 3.4

Ecuador 3.4

Guatemala 3.3

Paraguay 3.2

El Salvador 3.0

T&T Economy GDP

2007 T&T Economy GDP

(Percent of Total)

Latin America

T&T Economy GDP Growth 2008-2017

(Percent Annualized)



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BRAZIL’S TRAVEL & TOURISM OUTLOOK

  • Brazil Travel & Tourism is expected to generate BRL184.5 bn (US$79.3 bn) of economic activity (Total Demand) in 2007, growing (nominal terms) to BRL443.7 bn (US$123.0 bn) by 2017.

  • Total Demand is expected to grow by 7.2% in 2007 and by 5.3% per annum, in real terms, between 2008 and 2017. 2007.

  • Total Demand represents 1.1% of world market share.

  • Brazil T&T Economy employment is estimated at 5,876,000 jobs in 2007, 6.4% of total employment, or 1 in every 15.5 jobs.

  • By 2017, this should total 7,773,000 jobs, 6.8% of total employment or 1 in every 14.8 jobs.


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The Top Ten Lists

Latin America


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WTTC’s Top Ten Industry Growers - Demand

(2007 US$ mn)

Regional Position World Position Country US$ mn

1 10 Mexico 140,450.0

2 18 Brazil 70,419.7

3 41 Argentina 22,751.3

4 45 Venezuela 15,765.8

5 53 Chile 11,213.9

6 62 Peru 7,698.7

7 72 Cuba 5,384.3

8 77 Cost Rica 4,233.2

9 84 Ecuador 3,768.5

10 88 Guatemala 3,371.2


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WTTC’s Top Ten Job Creators

(2008-2017 Employment Growth, Jobs)

Regional Position World Position Country Per cent

1 11 Mexico 4.6

2 25 Guatemala 4.0

3 35 Costa Rica 3.4

4 55 Ecuador 3.0

5 59 Peru 2.9

6 71 Venezuela 2.7

7 82 Cuba 2.5

8 102 Brazil 2.2

9 116 Argentina 1.6

10 141 Chile 1.3


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WTTC’s Top Ten Visitor Exports

(2007, US$ mn)

Regional Position World Position Country US$ mn

1 18 Mexico 14,922.3

2 41 Brazil 5,345.8

3 46 Argentina 4,245.9

4 55 Cuba 2,898.6

5 62 Costa Rica 2,303.3

6 63 Chile 2,296.3

7 69 Peru 1,646.1

8 82 Guatemala 1,152.5

9 92 Venezuela 875.2

10 104 Ecuador 543.0


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2007 COUNTRY RANKINGS FOR BRAZIL WITHIN WORLD

12007 Real Growth Adjusted for Inflation; 22008-2017 Annualized Real Growth Adjusted for Inflation

Total 176 Countries or 13 Regions (Largest/Highest/Best is Number 1; Smallest/Lowest/Worst is Number 176 or 13; 0 is Aggregate Region no Ranking)


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Summit Format- In the Round


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Leaders of Government including:

The Honourable:

Aníbal Cavaco Silva, President of the Portuguese Republic;

José Sócrates, Prime Minister, Portugal;

Nahas Angula, Prime Minister, Namibia;

Manuel Pinho, Minister of Economy & Innovation, Portugal; Praful Patel, Minister of Civil Aviation, India;

Fanny Palli-Petralia, Minister of Tourism, Greece;

Osama Dabbas, Minister of Tourism & Antiquities, The Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan;

Predrag Nenezic, Minister of Tourism and Environment, Montenegro;

Bernardo Trindade, Secretary of State for Tourism, Portugal.


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Leaders of Industry including:

Geoffrey J W Kent, Chairman, World Travel & Tourism Council and Chairman & CEO, Abercrombie & Kent; Tom Arnold, Chief Environmental Officer, TerraPass; Jean-Claude Baumgarten, President, World Travel & Tourism Council; Philippe Bourguignon, Vice-Chairman, Revolution Resorts; Douglas A Blackmon, Bureau Chief, The Wall Street Journal, Atlanta; Alex Christou, Managing Partner, Accenture; Jeff Clarke, President and Chief Executive Officer, Travelport Inc; Andrew Cosslett, Chief Executive Officer, InterContinental Hotels Group plc; Robert L Darbelnet, President & CEO, AAA; DUAN Qiang, Chairman, Beijing Tourism Group; Maurice Flanagan CBE,Executive Vice Chairman, Emirates Airline & Group; Dr John Francis; Edwin D Fuller, President & Managing Director, International Lodging, Marriott International, Inc; Nik Gowing, Presenter, BBC World; Peter Greenberg, Travel Editor, NBC Today Show & Chief Correspondent, the Travel Channel; Arthur de Haast, Global Chief Executive Officer, Jones Lang LaSalle Hotels; Sir Stelios Haji-Ioannou, Founder & Chairman, easyGroup; Dara Khosrowshahi, President & CEO, Expedia Inc; Gerald Lawless, Executive Chairman, Jumeirah Group; Dr Chris Luebkeman, Director for Global Foresight, Arup; Jabu Mabuza, Group CEO, Tsogo Sun Group; Armin Meier, Group CEO, Kuoni Travel Holding Ltd; Charles Petruccelli, President Global Travel Services, American Express Company; Christopher Rodrigues CBE, Chairman, VisitBritain; Sonu Shivdasani, Chairman & CEO, Six Senses Resorts & Spas; Andrew Taylor, Chairman & CEO Enterprise Rent-A-Car; Jonathan M Tisch,Chairman & CEO, Loews Hotels; Nicholas C Walsh, Executive Vice President, Foreign General Insurance – AIG; President & Chief Executive Officer – American International Underwriters, AIG, Inc; Arnie Weissmann, Editor in Chief, Travel Weekly; Tim Zagat, Co-Founder, Co-Chair & CEO, Zagat Survey LLC; Sarmad Zok,Chief Executive Officer, Kingdom Hotel Investments.


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New Interactive Web Channel

To get involved in the debate before the Summit has even started, log on to:

www.globaltraveltourism.com/webchannel


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