Jean claude baumgarten president world travel tourism council
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Jean-Claude Baumgarten President World Travel & Tourism Council PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Jean-Claude Baumgarten President World Travel & Tourism Council. FOUNDING MEMBERS Abercrombie & Kent Accor Hotels American Airlines American Express Avis British Airways Canadian Pacific Hotels Delta Air Lines East Japan Railways Hertz Iberia Airlines Regent International Hotels

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Jean-Claude Baumgarten President World Travel & Tourism Council

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Jean claude baumgarten president world travel tourism council

Jean-Claude Baumgarten

President

World Travel & Tourism Council


Jean claude baumgarten president world travel tourism council

FOUNDING MEMBERS

Abercrombie & Kent

Accor Hotels

American Airlines

American Express

Avis

British Airways

Canadian Pacific Hotels

Delta Air Lines

East Japan Railways

Hertz

Iberia Airlines

Regent International Hotels

The Promus Companies

Thrifty Rent-a-Car

United Airlines

Westin Hotels & Resorts


Jean claude baumgarten president world travel tourism council

Consumption = Travel & Tourism Industry

Demand = Travel & Tourism Economy


What is driving the global economy

What is Driving the Global Economy?

  • Macro policy still supportive despite rising interest rates

  • Long-term interest rates very low

  • China continues to boom

  • Buoyant company profits

  • Recovery in confidence and stock markets

  • High oil prices not proving to be major constraint on growth


Risks to the forecast

Risks to the Forecast

  • Avian flu pandemic major risk for air travel and international trade

  • US consumers run out of steam

  • Twin deficits in the US

  • Chinese hard landing

  • Tighter policy causes European and Japanese recovery to stall

  • Terrorism


Implications for travel tourism

Implications for Travel & Tourism

  • Travel & Tourism industry benefiting from strength of global economy

  • Low interest rates supporting strong consumer demand

  • Improvement in company finances and M&A activity boosting business travel

  • Energy costs impacting the P&L bottom line

  • Countries highly dependent on inbound tourism the most exposed to a flu pandemic

  • Long-term prospects still very positive


Jean claude baumgarten president world travel tourism council

Richard R. Miller

Executive Vice President

World Travel & Tourism Council


Jean claude baumgarten president world travel tourism council

2001


Jean claude baumgarten president world travel tourism council

September 11, 2001


Jean claude baumgarten president world travel tourism council

2002/2003


Jean claude baumgarten president world travel tourism council

Spring 2003


Jean claude baumgarten president world travel tourism council

2004

Remarkable

Robust

Recovery


Jean claude baumgarten president world travel tourism council

December 26, 2004


Jean claude baumgarten president world travel tourism council

2005

Sowing the Seeds of Growth


Jean claude baumgarten president world travel tourism council

July 7, 2005


Jean claude baumgarten president world travel tourism council

2006

Climbing to

New Heights


Jean claude baumgarten president world travel tourism council

WTTC’s 2006

Tourism Satellite Accounting Research


Jean claude baumgarten president world travel tourism council

The

World

Perspective


World

World

2005 showed robust growth across the board. For 2006 we expect stronger Visitor Exports but other spending slightly off 2005 levels of growth, but still noticeably higher than 10-year annualized forecast.


T t economy gdp

T&T Economy GDP

World Average

Caribbean

Other Western Europe

Oceania

European Union

North Africa

Middle East

Northeast Asia

Sub-Saharan Africa

2006 T&T Economy GDP

(Percent of Total)

Central and Eastern Europe

North America

South Asia

Latin America

Southeast Asia

T&T Economy GDP Growth 2007-2016

(Percent Annualized)


T t economy gdp1

T&T Economy GDP

World Average

2006 T&T Economy GDP

(Percent of Total)

North America

Latin America

T&T Economy GDP Growth 2007-2016

(Percent Annualized)


T t economy gdp2

T&T Economy GDP

Costa Rica

Canada

Mexico

United States

2006 T&T Economy GDP

(Percent of Total)

Panama

Uruguay

Too Small:

El Salvador, Honduras, Bolivia, Paraguay, Nicaragua, Belize, Suriname, Guyana

Ecuador

Peru

Colombia

Guatemala

Venezuela

Brazil

Argentina

Chile

T&T Economy GDP Growth 2007-2016

(Percent Annualized)


T t economy gdp3

T&T Economy GDP

World Average

Other Western Europe

European Union

2006 T&T Economy GDP

(Percent of Total)

T&T Economy GDP Growth 2007-2016

(Percent Annualized)


T t economy gdp4

T&T Economy GDP

EU Average

Portugal

Malta

Greece

Cyprus

Sweden

Spain

Belgium

Slovenia

Austria

Slovakia

Iceland

2006 T&T Economy GDP

(Percent of Total)

Switzerland

Estonia

Italy

Czech Republic

Turkey

Lux

Lithuania

Denmark

Hungary

Latvia

Poland

Netherlands

France

Ireland

United Kingdom

Germany

Norway

Finland

T&T Economy GDP Growth 2007-2016

(Percent Annualized)


T t economy gdp5

T&T Economy GDP

World Average

Oceania

Northeast Asia

2006 T&T Economy GDP

(Percent of Total)

South Asia

Southeast Asia

T&T Economy GDP Growth 2007-2016

(Percent Annualized)


T t economy gdp6

T&T Economy GDP

Maldives (67%)

Other Oceania (32%)

Cambodia

Fiji

(33%)

Macau (86%)

Hong Kong

Malaysia

New Zealand

China

Thailand

Brunei

Australia

Sri Lanka

2006 T&T Economy GDP

(Percent of Total)

Singapore

Laos

Vietnam

Philippines

Papua NG

Nepal

Too Small:

Vanuatu, Tonga, Solomon Islands, Kiribati

Japan

India

Indonesia

Bangladesh

South Korea

Burma

Pakistan

Chinese Taipei

T&T Economy GDP Growth 2007-2016

(Percent Annualized)


T t economy gdp7

T&T Economy GDP

World Average

Central and Eastern Europe

2006 T&T Economy GDP

(Percent of Total)

T&T Economy GDP Growth 2007-2016

(Percent Annualized)


T t economy gdp8

T&T Economy GDP

Croatia

Bulgaria

Montenegro

Bosnia/Herz

2006 T&T Economy GDP

(Percent of Total)

Albania

Ukraine

Russian Federation

Macedonia

Yugoslavia

Romania

Belarus

T&T Economy GDP Growth 2007-2016

(Percent Annualized)


T t economy gdp9

T&T Economy GDP

World Average

North Africa

Middle East

2006 T&T Economy GDP

(Percent of Total)

T&T Economy GDP Growth 2007-2016

(Percent Annualized)


T t economy gdp10

T&T Economy GDP

Bahrain

Jordan

Morocco

Tunisia

Egypt

Syria

2006 T&T Economy GDP

(Percent of Total)

Libya

Qatar

Lebanon

Iran

UAE

Yemen

Algeria

Kuwait

Saudi Arabia

Israel

Oman

T&T Economy GDP Growth 2006-2015

(Percent Annualized)


T t economy gdp11

T&T Economy GDP

World Average

Caribbean

2006 T&T Economy GDP

(Percent of Total)

T&T Economy GDP Growth 2007-2016

(Percent Annualized)


T t economy gdp12

T&T Economy GDP

Caribbean Avg

US Passport Impact

Begins 2007

Potential to Benefit

Antigua Barbuda

Aruba

Anguilla

Barbados

Bahamas

2006 T&T Economy GDP

(Percent of Total)

St Lucia

BVI’s

Guadeloupe

US Virgin Islands

Jamaica

Cayman Islands

Grenada

Dominica

Dominican Republic

St Kitts/Nevis

St Vin/Gren

Cuba

Trinidad Tobago

Puerto Rico

Bermuda

Curaçao

Martinique

Haiti

T&T Economy GDP Growth 2007-2016

(Percent Annualized)


In jeopardy visitor exports

In Jeopardy - Visitor Exports

*Potential to Benefit

Percent of Total Visitor Exports


T t economy gdp13

T&T Economy GDP

World Average

2006 T&T Economy GDP

(Percent of Total)

Sub-Saharan Africa

T&T Economy GDP Growth 2007-2016

(Percent Annualized)


T t economy gdp14

T&T Economy GDP

Angola (41%)

Seychelles (54%)

Mauritius

Cape Verde

2006 T&T Economy GDP

(Percent of Total)

Nigeria

South Africa

Kenya

Namibia

Sudan

Gabon

Chad

Reunion

T&T Economy GDP Growth 2007-2016

(Percent Annualized)


Jean claude baumgarten president world travel tourism council

The Top Ten Lists


Jean claude baumgarten president world travel tourism council

2006 - 2016


T t demand

T&T Demand

WTTC’s Top Ten Industry Growers

(2007-2016 Annualized Real Growth, Percent)

1Montenegro10.2

2China8.7

3India8.0

4Romania7.9

5Croatia7.6

6Vietnam7.5

7Latvia7.3

8Maldives7.2

9Albania7.0

10Cambodia7.0


T t economy employment

T&T Economy Employment

WTTC’s Top Ten Job Creators

(2007-2016 Employment Growth, Jobs)

1China12,389,790

2Mexico2,858,515

3India2,666,670

4Indonesia2,539,180

5Spain1,364,452

6Brazil1,359,725

7Japan1,136,158

8Vietnam924,618

9France909,185

10Philippines873,971


T t capital investment

T&T Capital Investment

WTTC’s Top Ten Investors

(2005-2014 Annualized Real Growth, Percent)

1Spain9.4

2Russian Federation9.3

3Mexico8.8

4China8.3

5Hong Kong8.2

6India7.8

7Libya7.8

8Montenegro7.5

9Norway7.4

10Bahrain6.9


Jean claude baumgarten president world travel tourism council

EU25, G8 Plus 5


European union

European Union

Strength of most TSA elements propelled the EU25 to excellent results in 2005. In 2006, surging Visitor Exports are expected to propel EU25 results above last year’s GDP and Employment levels. Only weaknesses showing in 2006 are Govt Expenditures and Capital Investment.


Canada

Canada

In 2005, Visitor Exports was weak link with real loss of 2.4%, while GDP still met 10 year avg from strength of Personal, Biz Travel and Capital Investment. This year, Visitor Exports rebound (+5.3%) is expected to return industry to healthy GDP and Employment position.


China

China

Continuation of extraordinary growth, double digit in all categories except Govt Spending, but strong too. In 2006, Personal and Biz Travel are pushing real Industry GDP growth up 12.7% while Capital Investment is keeping Economy GDP high.


France

France

2005 was a strong year for Travel & Tourism in France with the exception of Visitor Exports. 2006 should follow suit except Capital Invest is expected to weaken and Visitor Exports strengthen with the latter pushing GDP and Employment to higher levels.


Germany

Germany

Personal and Biz T&T are doing well in Germany, and Visitor Exports is exceeding 10-year forecast putting GDP and Jobs in favorable position. Govt Expend and Capital Investment were down in 2005, but expected to recover and boost T&T Econ. GDP and Jobs in 2006.


India

India

2006 appears to be a near repeat of a very strong 2005 in all categories of Travel & Tourism economics with the exception of a stronger outlook for Biz Travel.


Italy

Italy

2006 expects to see stronger Biz Travel and Visitor Export spending and still strong Personal Travel & Tourism, while Govt Spending and Capital Investment show significant weakening. Overall outlook is strong for GDP and Jobs.


Japan

Japan

2005 was a good year for Japan’s Travel & Tourism economy with all categories exceeding the 10-year forecast. The 2006 forecast is also positive and only slightly under 2005 levels.


Netherlands

Netherlands

2005 was a positive year for Netherlands Travel & Tourism, yet 2006 promises to be an even better year mostly as a result of stronger expectations for Biz Travel and Visitor Exports. GDP and Jobs are well exceeding the 10-year outlook.


Russian federation

Russian Federation

2005 was a very good year for Russia Travel & Tourism, except for Visitor Exports. 2006 Visitor Exports should rebound while Personal and Biz Travel pull back slightly and Capital Investment falls. 2006 T&T Industry GDP and Jobs do well. T&T Economy GDP and Jobs suffer.


Spain

Spain

Expectations for a major rebound of Visitor Exports in 2006 adds to an already strong outlook across the board for Spain Travel & Tourism. GDP and Jobs closely follow the Visitor Exports surge and well exceed the forecast for 10-year growth.


United kingdom

United Kingdom

Overall 2005 was a positive year for UK Travel & Tourism in all categories even for Visitor Exports which did well even in the face of terrorism. 2006 is expected to be slightly off this pace, but Visitor Exports is expected to be much stronger.


United states

United States

2005 was a banner year across the board for US Travel & Tourism despite the price of oil. 2006 forecasts are expected to be slightly off this pace, but still well ahead of 10-year growth forecasts.


Jean claude baumgarten president world travel tourism council

UAE

2006 T&T is expected to see a significant increase in Capital Investment and Visitor Exports over 2005 levels. Both items are pushing T&T GDP and Employment to levels well exceeding the 10-year forecast.


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