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TRANSPORTATION

TRANSPORTATION. Stephen Jeckovich, Ph.D. BEGINNING OF 20 th CENTURY. Internal combustion engine Henry Ford’s production of the automobile Expanded need for gasoline, growth of US oil industry. US oil independent. CURRENTLY.

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TRANSPORTATION

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  1. TRANSPORTATION Stephen Jeckovich, Ph.D.

  2. BEGINNING OF 20th CENTURY • Internal combustion engine • Henry Ford’s production of the automobile • Expanded need for gasoline, growth of US oil industry. • US oil independent

  3. CURRENTLY • Transportation (cars, trucks, buses, airplanes) energy Achilles heel • US oil dependent • Vulnerability OPEC 1 (first oil shock. Oct 1973 –Mar 18, 1974)

  4. EMPHASIS ON AUTO TECHNOLOGY • Increase mpg, decrease pollution…hybrid, fuel cells, et al • DARPA annual project: use Artificial intelligence, driverless car • Manage streets, traffic, obey traffic signs, pass, merge, military supply • Nov 2007 test in Victorville, CA-35 contestants • 55 miles of city streets • Winner: Carnegie Mellon

  5. TATA CORPARATION • Developed and built NANO car in India • Four passengers, two doors, 33 HP, max speed 60MPH, 45 mpg • Sales Price: $2500 • Sales forecast 2008 India: 200,000 cars • Consequences: Pollution, increase demand for gasoline (22 million gallons)

  6. SMART CAR • Developed by Mercedes-Benz and built in France • Two passengers, eight feet long, weight 1500# • One liter engine, 3 cylinder engine, 61 HP, 46/68 mpg, top speed 84 mph • Sacramento dealer has 22 cars • Price starts at $11,000

  7. RECENT CONGRESSIONAL ENERGY MANDATES • Auto mileage: current 28.5/22.0 to 35 mpg by 2020 for light trucks and autos • Engineering analysis: • Requires 30% weight reduction • Plastic substitution for metal • Price increase: $3,000 to $5,000 • Raw materials supply: oil and natural gas

  8. SAFETY • Ralph Nader, 1965, “Unsafe at any speed.” • Development of safer car: side impact, roll over, front end collision, etc • Windshield accidents; concussion/cadavers. Laceration/hi speed impact sled (skin) • Safer windshield configuration (flexibility/laceration) • Seat belts, airbags

  9. ETHANOL: PANACEA OR TURKEY? • 5 billion gallons from corn, 2006, 134 plants, coal fired, located in Midwest • Increase to 36 billion gallons in 2022 • 12 billion ethanol, Generation One, corn • 24 billion ethanol, Generation Two, prairie grass, wood chips, et al • Retain import duty of $0.54 per gallon on Brazilian ethanol • Negative ethanol energy cycle = 6 x energy in auto engine (Cornell, Berkeley and others)

  10. BRAZIL SUCCESS STORY • 4.4 billion gallons from sugar cane, 2006 • Productivity: corn = 400 gallons per acre • Sugar cane = 600 gallons per acre • Ethanol used in 70 % of cars • Future 90% of cars will be flex fuel • Why can’t we do the same? • Brazil car population = 3% of US car population (big difference in scale)

  11. US ETHANOL USAGE • Usage about 3% of total gasoline • Massive land coverage • 5,000 gas stations sell 5 – 10% blend • E85 blend in Chicago test • Affecting food and cattle feed prices

  12. ETHANOL IN US FUTURE • Generation Two success depends upon adequate raw material supply, feasible and profitable process, positive energy cycle, Big bang potential • Meet energy, environmental and economic criteria • Ethanol does not appear to have big bang nor economic potential for playing a role in closing the energy gap

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