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NEPOOL Participants Committee Meeting Boston, MA February 4, 2005

NEPOOL Participants Committee Meeting Boston, MA February 4, 2005. Stephen G. Whitley Senior Vice President & COO. Agenda. System Operations Market Operations Overall Uplift Winter 2004/2005 Outlook Back-Up Detail. System Operations. Operations Highlights.

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NEPOOL Participants Committee Meeting Boston, MA February 4, 2005

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  1. NEPOOL Participants Committee Meeting Boston, MA February 4, 2005 Stephen G. Whitley Senior Vice President & COO

  2. Agenda • System Operations • Market Operations • Overall Uplift • Winter 2004/2005 Outlook • Back-Up Detail

  3. System Operations

  4. Operations Highlights • Boston & Hartford Weather Pattern: • On average, temperatures in January were slightly below average; precipitation averaged +0.53 (Western MA) and +0.63 (Boston Area) above normal. (The moisture content during the snow storms in January was very low). • Peak load of 22,100 MW at 19:00 hours on January 18, 2005. • During January: • NPCC Shared Activation of Reserve Events: • January 4 IMO – Bruce G1 @ 950 Mw • January 8 PJM – Gavin1 @1400 Mw • Solar Magnetic Disturbance (SMD) • January 7 K - 7 • January 17 K – 7 • January 18 K – 7 (twice) • January 21 K – 7 • January 21 K - 8

  5. Market Operations

  6. Day–Ahead & Real-Time Prices, ISO Hub: Note: Natural Gas source is Algonquin Citygates Price.

  7. (4.15%) (0.16%) (-0.21%) (-0.63%) (-2.56%) (-1.70%) (-1.88%) (-6.92%) Congestion Component LMP Marginal Loss Component Day-Ahead–LMP Average by Zone & Hub: January 1, 2005 to January 25, 2005 : Day-Ahead LMPs

  8. Congestion Component LMP Marginal Loss Component Real-Time-LMP Average by Zone & Hub: January 1, 2005 to January 25, 2005: Real Time LMPs (-0.14%) (-0.95%) (0.04%) (-1.00%) (-1.94%) (-1.75)% (-2.34%) (-5.87%)

  9. Day Ahead Market vs. Forecast Load

  10. Day Ahead LMP

  11. Real Time LMP

  12. Settlement Data – Real Time & Balancing Market Note: Partial Month Data January 1-January 25

  13. RMR and Economic Operating Reserve Payments

  14. Monthly VAR Support and SCR Payments

  15. Overall Uplift

  16. Uplift – Where It Occurs – January 2005(MWh) Day Ahead Jan (MWH) Real Time

  17. Uplift – What Is Cause – January 2005(MWh) Day Ahead Jan (MWH) Real Time

  18. Uplift as % of Total DA/RT Energy Market *2003 values reflect SMD months - March through December ** January 2005 includes only 24 days of data Dollar value of Energy Mkt assumed to equal : (DALMP*DAALO + RTLMP*RTALOdev) summed for each location in each hour.

  19. VAR & SCR Uplift as % of Total DA/RT Energy Market *2003 values reflect SMD months - March through December ** January 2005 includes only 24 days of data Dollar value of Energy Mkt assumed to equal : (DALMP*DAALO + RTLMP*RTALOdev) summed for each location in each hour.

  20. Economic & RMR Uplift as % of Total DA/RT Energy Market *2003 values reflect SMD months - March through December ** January 2005 includes only 24 days of data Dollar value of Energy Mkt assumed to equal : (DALMP*DAALO + RTLMP*RTALOdev) summed for each location in each hour.

  21. Overall Uplift Monthly ($) (MWHs) Year To Date ($) (MWHs) Note: Overall uplift includes out of merit DA and RT Economic, RMR, VAR, and RT SCR components 2003 includes SMD months only.

  22. Action Plan to Reduce VAR Uplift • 98% of VAR uplift in 2004 was for the Boston area to reliably operate during light load, high voltage conditions stemming from their underground cable system. • To expand area reactive resources, the following actions were taken: • Working with the owners of Mystic, the leading reactive limits on units 8 and 9 were increased by a total of 100 MVAR. • Working with NSTAR; • A work around allowed the early return of an 80 MVAR reactor. • Repair of a load tap changer on the Woburn 345/115 kV transformer was expedited increasing the effectiveness of 3 reactors at the station. • To capture the benefits of these actions, the ISO, NSTAR and REMVEC will complete technical work to revise the Boston area operating guide by February 11. • In the longer term, NSTAR plans to install a new 150 MVAR reactor with dynamic control features by May 1.

  23. Definitions

  24. Winter Outlook

  25. Winter 2005 Capacity Assessment 50/50 Forecast February through March ’05 Conditions for Week of Lowest Operable Capacity Margin Week beginning February 12th MW Projected Peak (50/50) 21,961 Operating Reserve Required 1,700 Total Operable Cap. Required 23,661 Projected Capacity 32,3701 Assumed Outages 6,550 Total Capacity 25,820 Operable Capacity Margin 2,159 1 2,950 MW of installed capacity has delisted. Only 950 MW has been deducted from the total reflecting what has been sold outside of New England.

  26. 2005 Capacity Assessment

  27. 2005 Capacity Assessment

  28. 2005 Capacity Assessment

  29. Winter 2005 Capacity Assessment 90/10 Forecast February through March ’05 Conditions for Week of Lowest Operable Capacity Margin Week beginning February 5th MW Projected Peak (90/10) 22,872 Operating Reserve Required 1,700 Total Operable Cap. Required 24,572 Projected Capacity 32,3701 Assumed Outages 7,000 Total Capacity 25,370 Operable Capacity Margin 798 Assumed outages are based on Jan. 2004 Cold Snap experience (9,000 MW of total outage) adjusted for 2,000 MW of capacity expected to be available as result of preliminary Cold Snap Initiatives. 1 2,950 MW of installed capacity has delisted. Only 950 MW has been deducted from the total reflecting what has been sold outside of New England.

  30. DRAFT -2005 Capacity Assessment 90/10 Forecast

  31. DRAFT -2005 Capacity Assessment 90/10 Forecast

  32. DRAFT -2005 Capacity Assessment 90/10 Forecast

  33. Back-Up Detail

  34. Demand Response

  35. Demand Response(as of February 1, 2005)

  36. Demand Response, Con’t. (as of February 1, 2005) * SWCT assets are included in CT values and are not included in Total

  37. New Generation

  38. New Generation Update Generation Projects with Proposed Plan Approval1 • No new resources were added in January. • Approximately 50 MW of capacity expected on line by the end of the year. • Status of Generation Projects as of February 1, 2005: No.MW In Construction 1 8.4 Not in Construction 6 1,370 Nuclear Uprates 5 265 1Existing Proposed Plan approvals are pursuant to section 18.4 of the RNA; future Proposed Plan approvals will be pursuant to Section I.3.9 of the ISO New England Inc. Transmission, Markets and Services Tariff.

  39. RSP (Regional System Plan)

  40. RSP Update • RSP05 • PAC01 to be held February 2 • Draft Load Forecast • OC Assumptions and Outlook • Next Steps • PAC02 to be held March 2 or March 3 • Meet with Sr. Management on key messages • Inter-ISO Update • Revised Northeast Coordinated System Plan (NCSP). Under review of Joint ISO/RTO Planning Committee (JIPC) • Next Steps • Draft NCSP to be issued to Sr. Management mid-February • NPCC • Blackout issues being addressed • NERC Version O Registration completed

  41. Stage Description 1 Planning and Preparation of Project Configuration 2 Pre-construction (e.g., material ordering, project scheduling) 3 Construction in Progress 4 Completed RSP Project Stage Descriptions

  42. NSTAR 345 kV Transmission Reliability Project Status as of 2/2/05 Project Benefit: Improves New England reliability by addressing Boston Area concerns and increasing Boston Import Limit from 3,600 MW to approximately 4,500 MW. Expected Original Present Upgrade In-service In-service Stage Phase 1 Stoughton 345 kV Substation Jun-06 Jun-06 2 Stoughton - Hyde Park 345 kV Jun-06 Jun-06 2 Stoughton - K Street 345 kV #1 Jun-06 Jun-06 2 Phase 2 Stoughton - K Street 345 kV #2 Dec-07 Dec-07 2 • New Boston 1 needed until project completed. • Received RC recommendation for 18.4 approval 12/13/04 and 12C approval 7-29-04. Includes additional analysis of harmonics/transient overvoltage. • EFSB/DTE approval on 12/23/04. • TCA determination letter from ISO-NE expected Spring 2005. • Long-term solution is functioning Resource Adequacy market to incent generation to locate in the most appropriate areas, with the ability to do gap RFP’s to address timing issues.

  43. North Shore Upgrades Status as of 2/2/05 Project Benefit: Maintains system reliability for the North Shore area independent of Salem Harbor generation. Expected Original Present Upgrade In-service In-service Stage Ward Hill Upgrades Add 3 transformers at Ward Hill Jun-06 Jun-06 1 Reconductor several 115kV lines Jun-06 Jun-06 1 Salem Harbor capacitor banks Jun-06 Jun-06 1 Wakefield Junction New Wakefield Junction SS Jun-08 1 Jun-08 • MA DTE review in progress; ruling due early 2005 • 18.4 application for Ward Hill upgrades expected early 2005 • Salem Harbor needed at least until NGRID North Shore upgrades (2006 earliest). These units provide operating reserves for the current system as well as insurance for delays in transmission projects. • Long-term solution is functioning Resource Adequacy market to incent generation to locate in the most appropriate areas, with the ability to do gap RFP’s to address timing issues.

  44. SWCT 345 kV Transmission Reliability Project Status as of 2/2/05 Project Benefit: Improves New England reliability by addressing SWCT concerns. Increases SWCT Import Limit from 2,000 MW to approximately 3,400 MW. Expected Original Present Upgrade In-service In-service Stage Phase 1 Norwalk 345 kV Substation 4th Qtr 06 Dec-04 2 Plumtree 345 kV Substation 4th Qtr 06 Dec-04 2 Norwalk - Plumtree 345 kV 4th Qtr 06 Dec-04 2 Associated 115 kV Line Work 4th Qtr 06 Dec-04 2 Phase 2 Beseck 345 kV Substation 2009 Jan-06 1 East Devon 345 kV Substation 2009 Jan-06 1 Singer 345 kV Substation 2009 Jan-06 1 Beseck - East Devon 345 kV 2009 Jan-06 1 East Devon - Singer 345 kV 2009 Jan-06 1 Singer - Norwalk 345 kV 2009 Jan-06 1 Associated 115 kV Line Work 2009 Jan-06 1 Notes Phase 1: • Siting review complete; appeal denied. • Detailed engineering in progress. • TCA Application received 1/12/05. • Consultants doing final review of transient/harmonic analyses. Notes Phase 2: • Siting review in progress, ruling due April 2005. • Final ROC report complete; recommended proceeding with 24 miles of UG XLPE cable. • 1/11 and 1/13 ROC Report Hearings completed. • Additional hearings scheduled for 2/14 (technical meeting) and 2/17 (ROC Report) • Consultants working on KEMA issues.

  45. Northeast Reliability Interconnect Project Status as of 2/2/05 Project Benefit: Improves New England reliability by improving inter-area transfer capability and eliminating various protection/stability concerns. Expected Original Present Upgrade In-service In-service Stage Orrington, ME - Pt. Lepreau, NB 345 kV Dec-07 Dec-08 1 • Siting approved for Canadian section of line. • DOE & Maine DEP review processes (approx. 1 year) have started.

  46. NWVT 345 kV Transmission Reliability Project Status as of 2/2/05 Project Benefit: Improves New England reliability by addressing NWVT concerns, bringing another source into the Burlington area. Expected Original Present Upgrade In-service In-service Stage New Haven 345 kV Substation May-06 Oct-05 2 West Rutland - New Haven 345 kV May-06 Nov-05 2 New Haven - Queen City 115 kV Mar-07 Oct-06 2 Granite STATCOM/Upgrades Oct-07 Oct-07 2 • Sandbar Phase Angle Regulator in service. • Conditional Siting approval received 1/28/05. • 1.3 miles of 115 kV in Bay Road area ordered underground.

  47. Southern New England Reliability Project Status as of 2/2/05 Project Benefit: Improves New England reliability by increasing transfer limits of three critical interfaces, including Connecticut Import Limit Expected Original Present Upgrade In-service In-service Stage Millbury - Sherman Rd. 345 kV Dec-08 Dec-08 1 Sherman Rd. - Lake Rd. 345 kV Dec-08 Dec-08 1 Lake Rd. - Card St. 345 kV Dec-08 Dec-08 1 345 kV Substation Modifications Dec-08 Dec-08 1 - Planning studies in progress; estimated completion summer 2005. - Project specifics may change; alternatives still under review. - Project planning and coordination meetings continuing.

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