Dropout Early Warning: Who, What, When, and How

1. Dropout Early Warning: Who, What, When, and How Jessie Joubert, Edgear/JPams Consultant Brenda Joubert, SREB School Improvement Consultant Ralph Thibodeaux, Deputy Director, HS Redesign, LA DOE

2. ? Dropout Early Warning System • Explore why early detection of problems is key • Resolve how to identify students • Identify who needs help • Discuss when students should receive what assistance ? ?

3. Plan of Action • Overview of Research • Identify students to target • Data in Student Information Systems • Identifying students using data • Interventions • Identifying interventions • Planning for interventions to occur

4. The Picture is Bleak for Dropouts Dropouts are much more likely than their peers who graduate to be: • Unemployed • Living in poverty • Receiving public assistance • In prison • Unhealthy • Divorced • Single parents with children who drop out from high school themselves The Silent Epidemic John M. Bridgeland, John J. DiIulio, Jr., Karen Burke Morison. March 2006

5. The Picture is Bleak for Dropouts • A Growing Prison Population 75 Percent Of State Prison Inmates And 59 Percent Of Federal Inmates Are High-school Dropouts. • Increasing Welfare Costs • A Limited Labor Supply For An Economy With An Increasing Appetite For Educated Workers For American society, the annual cost of providing for youth who fail to complete high school and their families is $76 billion/year – or approximately $800 for each taxpayer in states and localities across the country One-third of a Nation: Rising Dropout Rates and Declining Opportunities, ETS, February 2006

6. Dropouts Identify Five Major FactorsFor Leaving School • 47% Classes not interesting • 43% Missed too many days, could not catch up • 42% Spent time with people disinterested in school • 38% Had too much freedom & not enough rules • 35% Was failing in school The Silent Epidemic John M. Bridgeland, John J. DiIulio, Jr., Karen Burke Morison. March 2006

7. Who are these dropouts? • 69 % said they were not motivatedor inspired to work hard, • 66% would have worked harder if more was expectedof them (higher academic standards and more studying or homework), • 37 % said that “failing in school” was a major factor for dropping out; • 62 % missed class often the year before dropping out. National Center For Dropout Prevention

8. Grade Level of Dropouts • Source: Ed Week: • EPE Research Center 2006

9. Regrets • In hindsight, dropouts are almost universally remorseful for having left school. • About ¾ of dropouts indicate they would have remained in school if they could relive the experience. • 74% of dropouts would re-enter school if they could attend in alternative settings with age-level peers. SOURCE: The Silent Epidemic, Civic Enterprises, March 2006

10. Early Identification & Intervention is Key Research by Louisiana DOE determined ninth grade is the critical year when students drop out, but mental dropping out begins long before physical withdrawal from school.

11. Early Predictors of Failure to Graduate • Each 8th grade course failure increases the odds of non-promotion from 9th to 10th grade by 16% • Students who are 15 years of age or older when they enter high school • Although 8th-grade test scores are good predictors of students’ likelihood to do well in high school courses, course attendance is eight times more predictive of course failure in the freshman year Education Commission of the States; 2008

12. 6th Grade Research Academic Achievement Course failure is a better indicator of not graduating than low test scores. • Failing Math (for the year) in 6th grade • Failing English (for the year) in 6th grade Attendance When attendance dips below 80% (36 days or more/ year), 75% or more of these students don’t graduate. Balfanz & Mac Iver, Johns HopkinsHerzog, Philadelphia Education Fund

13. 6th Grade Research Suspensions Only 20% who receive one or more suspensions in 6th grade graduate within a year of on-time graduation. Behavior grades predict half of the school/district’s future nongraduates. Unsatisfactory behavior magnifies the damaging effects of course failure on students’ prospects of graduating! Balfanz, Herzog, & Mac Iver, Johns Hopkins, Philadelphia Education Fund

14. Identify Students in Need Every grade level should work with students who exhibit at risk behaviors: • Absenteeism • Low grades • Poor discipline • Overage

15. Looking at the Work Identify Students to Target Automatic Email Notifications Query Of At Risk Students

16. Dropout Early Warning System DEWS Reporting system that identifies potential dropouts and brings these students to the attention of school, district, and state personnel.

17. Essential Elements of DEWS Reports Identifies 8th – 12th grade students who are: • Over age by two years • Absenteeism≥ 10% of days enrolled • Discipline≥ 7% of days enrolled • Grades • Current GPA drop of 1.5 or more from previous GPA > 2.0 • Current GPA drop of .5 or more from previous GPA ≤ 2.0 • Current GPA ≤ 1.0

18. Student Detail Listings Automatic Email on the 1st and 15th of each month • Sent to • School Principal • Assistant Principal • Counselor • District Superintendent • Includes • Comprehensive list of students showing at risk information • New students who meet criteria is sent daily

19. Student Detail Listings

20. DEWS District Tables Automatic Email on the 1st and 15th of each Month • Delivered to • School Principals • Assistant Principals • District Superintendent • Two Reports • Counts of 9th graders for each site by at risk indicators • Counts of 8th – 12th graders for each site by at risk indicators

21. DEWS District Tables

22. DEWS District Tables

23. DEWS Statewide Table Automatic Email on the 1st and 15th of each month • Delivered to • LA Dept of Education State Superintendent • Selected DOE Staff • Includes • Counts of 8th–12th grade students by district by at risk indicators.

24. DEWS Statewide Table

25. Report Generation DEWS automatic emails are broad in nature. To target assistance, more information is needed. • Reports On-Demand • Investigate student specifics • Grades • Discipline • Attendance • Test scores

26. Report Generation Cell click a count or name to display further detail.

27. Looking at the Work Interventions Identifying Effective Interventions Planning For Interventions To Occur Monitoring And Adjusting Interventions

28. Referrals/Interventions by School

29. Detail of Referrals/Interventions

30. Abbeville High School Early Warning System and Interventions Rigor-Relevance-Relationships Presenter Ralph Thibodeaux

31. ReDesignGoals • Improve the Graduation Rate • Improve GPA • Improve Attendance • Improve Discipline • Improve ILEAP/GEE Scores Rigor-Relevance-Relationships

32. SUCCESS IS A JOURNEY… NOT A DESTINATION.

33. Objectives • History • Why an Early Warning System • Early Warning Indicators • Example of Reports • Utilization of the Early Warning System • Programs for all Students • Interventions for Individual Students • Goals of the Early Warning System Rigor-Relevance-Relationships

34. Why do we need an Early Warning System and Interventions? Data for the Graduating Class of 2005 228 Starting Freshman This is a 19.3% loss of students. 184 -52 176 Graduating Seniors Most of which happened in the first year Passed to Sophomore

35. Warning Indicators • Discipline for year and/or current term • Attendance for year and/or current term • Grade Point Average • Decline in Grade Point Average Rigor-Relevance-Relationships

36. Early Warning Report

37. Utilization of Early Warning System • Principal • Assistant Principals • School Counselors • Freshman Teams • All Grade levels Rigor-Relevance-Relationships

38. Development of the Interventions/Programs/Strategies • Scheduled a Team Meeting • Created a list of all Interventions/Programs/Strategies from the Model Schools Conference plus prior knowledge • Divided into small groups to create each level • Together reached a consensus on all levels Rigor-Relevance-Relationships

39. Interventions/Programs/Strategies • Early Preparation Programs • Multi-Level Comprehensive Interventions • Celebrate Success • High Expectations Rigor-Relevance-Relationships

40. Freshman Parent Night Progress Report 3rd Week of each 6 Weeks 1st Contact Phone Call Advisory Room “Making High School Count” Freshman Orientation Day Spring 8th Grade Tour Spring 8th Grade Parent Meeting Spring Letters from 9th graders to 8th graders Freshman of the Month Special Renaissance Reward (9th Ice Cream, etc.) Achievements Posted Honors Contracts Parent Command Center “Capturing Kids’ Hearts” M.B. Flippen “I” Contracts Reteach/Retest Pilot in Math Future Academy Ideas Level 1 Interventions Rigor-Relevance-Relationships

41. Teacher/Student Conference Follow-up Parent Phone Call Voluntary Tutoring Talk to Advisory Room Teacher and Team Teachers Web/Computer Review and Skills Development Level 2 Interventions Rigor-Relevance-Relationships

42. Level 3 Interventions • Parent Teacher Conference • Signing of Planners Nightly • Parent Letters Sent Home • Mid-term “Possible Failure” Letter Rigor-Relevance-Relationships

43. Mandatory After-School Tutoring “Wildcat Conductor” Counselor Watch Jr./Sr. Mentor / E-Mentors Parent Calls and Letters Peer Teacher Observation Team Parent Conference Level 4 Interventions Rigor-Relevance-Relationships

44. Level 5 Interventions • Parent/Counselor/Administration Conference • FINS Recommendation • 504/SPED Recommendation • Review Academic Options and Programs Rigor-Relevance-Relationships

45. The Final Product Level 5 Level 4 Level 3 INTERVENTIONS Level 2 Early Warning System Level 1 Rigor-Relevance-Relationships

46. Collect data from previous graduation classes Determine indicators for different types of schools Generate Early Warning Program reports by applying the previous year’s statistics to current students The Future?? Rigor-Relevance-Relationships

47. “Good is the Enemy of Great.” Willard R. Daggett Ed.D Rigor-Relevance-Relationships

48. Looking at the Work Take This Home

49. You Can Too… Research • John Hopkins University Research • The Silent Epidemic • National Center for Educational Statistics • Longitudinal local and state student data • Attendance • Discipline • Test scores • Graduation rates Plan • Use data to guide reports • Louisiana research guides JPams DEWS and other SIS Reports • Your state research can guide what items are also on the “list” • Determine methods of intervention based on student needs

50. Contacts • Brenda Joubert brenda.joubert@sreb.org • Jessie Joubert jjoubert2@gmail.com • Ralph Thibodeauxralph.thibodeaux@ldoe.com