30 years of medical statistics what has changed and what hasn t
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30 years of Medical Statistics What has changed and what hasn’t. Mike Campbell University of Sheffield. Sheffield Probability and Statistics 1973. Paper tape circa 1971. Punch card - in use until 1979!. Computing 1976. DIY Fortran, Algol ‘Batch mode’ SPSS BMDP ‘Language’ Genstat

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30 years of Medical Statistics What has changed and what hasn’t

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30 years of medical statistics what has changed and what hasn t

30 years of Medical StatisticsWhat has changed and what hasn’t

Mike Campbell

University of Sheffield

Teachers of Medical Statistics- Burwalls 2006


30 years of medical statistics what has changed and what hasn t

Sheffield Probability and Statistics 1973

Teachers of Medical Statistics- Burwalls 2006


30 years of medical statistics what has changed and what hasn t

Paper tape circa 1971

Teachers of Medical Statistics- Burwalls 2006


30 years of medical statistics what has changed and what hasn t

Punch card - in use until 1979!

Teachers of Medical Statistics- Burwalls 2006


Computing 1976

Computing 1976

DIY

Fortran, Algol

‘Batch mode’

SPSS

BMDP

‘Language’

Genstat

Interactive

Glim, Minitab

Teachers of Medical Statistics- Burwalls 2006


Developments in computing

Developments in computing

Commodore Pet/Apple (1978)

Basic

IBM PC 1981

BBC Computer 1981

Specially written stats packages for BBC Computer

SPSS PC 1989

Teachers of Medical Statistics- Burwalls 2006


30 years of medical statistics what has changed and what hasn t

Burwalls 1985

Teachers of Medical Statistics- Burwalls 2006


Important books and papers

Important books and papers

Armitage P (1971) Statistical methods in medical research

Nelder JA and Wedderburn RWM (1972) Generalized linear models JRSSA

Cox DR (1972) Regression models and life tables JRSSB

Breslow NE (1984) Extra-Poisson variation in log-linear models. Appl Stat

Bland M and Altman (1986)Method of agreement Lancet

Teachers of Medical Statistics- Burwalls 2006


New techniques that have had a big effect on the practice of medical statistics

New techniques that have had a big effect on the practice of medical statistics

Bootstrap (Efron 1979 JASA) (extension of Fisher’s permutation methods)

Random effects (Laird and Ware, 1982 Biometrics)

Ordinal models (McCullagh, 1980 JRSSB)

Multi-level models (Goldstein , 1987)

Teachers of Medical Statistics- Burwalls 2006


Techniques no longer used

Techniques no longer used

ANOVA

Probit analysis

Discriminant analysis

Teachers of Medical Statistics- Burwalls 2006


Other developments

Other developments

New journals

Statistics in Medicine (1981)

Biostatistics (2001)

Pharmaceutical Statistics (2002)

New Societies

Statisticians in the Pharmaceutical Industry (1977)

International Society of Clinical Biostatistics (1980)

Teachers of Medical Statistics- Burwalls 2006


Career developments

Career developments

Teachers of Medical Statistics (Burwalls, 1980)

Statistical refereeing for BMJ (1984) and Lancet (?1990)

Also many other journals now recognise use of statistical referees

Examinations for Royal Colleges

Teachers of Medical Statistics- Burwalls 2006


What has stayed the same

What has stayed the same

T-tests

Chi-squared tests

Teaching medical statistics

Problems with method comparisons

Communicating statistics

Teachers of Medical Statistics- Burwalls 2006


Survival

Survival

1976

Possible to ‘know’ most of medical stats

2006

Specialization

For an applied statistician can learn more from newsletters of software packages than from journals

Teachers of Medical Statistics- Burwalls 2006


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