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Global Warming, Urbanization, and Heat Waves

IAIA2007(3-8 June 2007, COEX, Korea). Global Warming, Urbanization, and Heat Waves. B.C. Choi , J. Kim, and D.G. Lee 6 June 2007 National Institute of Meteorological Research Korea Meteorological Administration. Introduction. Increased Heat Waves due to Global Warming.

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Global Warming, Urbanization, and Heat Waves

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  1. IAIA2007(3-8 June 2007, COEX, Korea) Global Warming, Urbanization, and Heat Waves B.C. Choi, J. Kim, and D.G. Lee 6 June 2007 National Institute of Meteorological Research Korea Meteorological Administration

  2. Introduction

  3. Increased Heat Waves due to Global Warming Depend on the types of temperature increase and its variability - Increase of mean temperature - Increase of variability - Increase of both

  4. Objectives • To understand heat waves occurrence in Korea • To study climatological characteristics of heat waves • To investigate health impacts of heat waves • To discuss the socio-economic impacts of heat waves • Data: • - Meteorological data (KMA), Daily weather chart (JMA), NCEP/CDC • Precipitation anomaly data • - Daily death data (All-caused deaths) for the major cities of • South Korea

  5. Monthly and Yearly Distribution of Mortality 14-year monthly deaths in Seoul (1992-2004) • Large yearly variation of monthly deaths • Distinct peak in summer of 1994 due to record-breaking heat waves • Elevated monthly deaths in 2000 and 2002 • Relatively low deaths in 1992

  6. Estimation of threshold temperature (Seoul) • important to estimate the health impact of heat waves • employing the two-phase linear regression model • threshold temperature found to be about 31 o C at Seoul • threshold temperature maybe depend on the regional climate and acclimation of inhabitants

  7. Occurrence and duration of heat waves (Seoul) Monthly number of days when Tmax was over 31. 2 C at Seoul (1971-2000) Duration of heat waves (two consecutive days)

  8. Comparison of regional standardized mortality • 7 Major cities of South Korea (mortality = deaths / 1 million inhabitants) • Elevated mortality in summer of 1994, especially in Seoul, Incheon, and Daegu

  9. Regional comparison of mortality

  10. Meteorological Condition in July of 1994

  11. Precipitation Anomaly (mm) What derives record-breaking heat waves? • Closely associated with prolonged drought. • dry surface => reduced latent heat release => surface warming • reduced cloud and precipitation => strong insolation => surface heating • anticyclonic circulation => downward air motion => adiabatic heating • => Associated with regional and global climate change Precipitation Anomaly Data Courtesy: NOAA CDC

  12. European heat waves in August 2003

  13. Drought Heat Waves () Precipitation () Clear Days () Soil Moisture () SFC Heating () Evaporation ()Latent Heat Release () Wild Fire * Smoke Emission () ATM Heating by Light Absorption () Cloud Cover () Incoming SW Drought and Heat Waves Hobbs et al., 1997 : Direct radiative forcing by smoke from biomass burning. Science, 275, 1777-1778.

  14. Operational alert/warning system of heat waves US NWS: considering strength and duration of Heat Index (Excessive Heat Watch, Heat Advisory, and Excessive Heat Warning) In preparation of Heat Health Watch Warning System for major cities of US (> 0.5 million inhabitants) (2005 AMS Annual Meeting: Dr. Mark A. Tew)

  15. Developing prediction model of air mass-based excess deaths All Excess Deaths positive Excess Deaths Shanghai model (Tan et al., IJB 2004) : Excess Deaths = -430.8 + 15.65*CDs + 11.71*AT (n=17, r=0.51) CD: consecutive days, AT: Apparent Temperature

  16. Conclusion and Discussion • Heat waves need to be considered as one of weather-related disasters in the summer season. • There is an increase trend of occurrence of duration of heat waves in Korea. • The health impacts depend on the regional climate and acclimation of inhabitants. • Air mass-based Heat Health Watch Warning System (HHWWS) is currently under development in KMA/METRI.

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