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The rumors of my death have been

The rumors of my death have been. greatly exaggerated. Art Mrs. Pynchon is very interested in endangered species. Lou Yeah. That's why she owns a newspaper. Jan. 3, 1978. !. Not this time. Newspapers as we know them, dead at 304. Thousands of cuts, more to come

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The rumors of my death have been

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  1. The rumors of my death have been greatly exaggerated Art Mrs. Pynchon is very interested in endangered species. Lou Yeah. That's why she owns a newspaper. Jan. 3, 1978

  2. ! Not this time

  3. Newspapers as we know them, dead at 304 • Thousands of cuts, more to come • Detroit goes to 3-day home delivery • Rocky Mountain News death rattle • Tribune bankruptcy, more to come • 3+ publishers booted off NYSE • Shrunken newshole • Shuttered bureaus • Shattered morale The Boston News-Letter debuted on April 24, 1704 (via EarlyAmerica.Com).

  4. The challenge is abundantly clear -24% • Circulation at 62-year low of 48.4 million in 2008 vs. peak of 63.3 million in 1984 •   Print ad sales in 2008 are on track to be sub-$38B, a $12+ billion drop vs. 2005 • Confidence in national papers dropped to 60% in 2007 vs. 82% in 1985 • 34% of people used newspapers for election news in 2006 vs. 57% in 1992 • Market value of newspaper shares slid some $90 billion since Jan.1, 2005 -25% -27% -40% -90% Sources: Yahoo Finance, Newspaper Association of America and Pew Research Center for People and the Press

  5. Newspaper ad sales down 25% since 2005 Annual print and online revenue in $billions $12B in revenue vaporized

  6. Decline has accelerated since QII-06 Percentage change in print revenue by quarter Source: Newspaper Association of America

  7. Not secular: Worst-ever sales decline 17.9 points 9.3 points 12.2 points Sources: Newspaper Association of America and U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

  8. Macy’s pulled $250M out of papers Source: TNS media Intelligence 4

  9. Many advertisers are cutting back print Auto dealer ad spend by medium 2007 1997 Source: National Association of Auto Dealers

  10. $5.4 billion in classifieds lost since 2000 • Recruitment fell $4.9 billion to 13-year low in 2007 Increasingly fragmented, specialized marketplace Migrating from job ads to resume-based recruiting Pricing will move to free/nominal to attract resumes • Automotive ads tumbled $1.8 billion to 22-year low Consumers spend eight hours shopping online Buyers moving to factory, dealer and specialty sites Ongoing dealer consolidation cutting available spend • Real estate dropped $1.2 billion in 2007 alone MLS ruling, downturn will erode commission model Profit-pressured Realtors will shift to specialty sites Zillow and other verticals stand to dominate FSBOs -56% -35% -23%

  11. Newspaper profits are shrinking

  12. The grim consequence Martin Gee (April 10, 2008)

  13. It’s happening to all mainstream media • Last week: Viacom and NPR each reduced staffs 7% • Big 3 Nets repeatedly have cut news staff and bureaus • Newsweeklies are imploding in every possible way Shrinking …rate base …frequency …staff Source: Folio

  14. Recording business in turmoil Sales by medium, 1996-2006 Millions of units 56% lower than 1996 85% gain Physical Online Mobile 108% CAGR Source: Recording Industry Association of America

  15. Recording business in turmoil Sales by medium, 1996-2006 Millions of units Where would “free” be? 56% lower than 1996 85% gain Physical Online Mobile 108% CAGR Source: Recording Industry Association of America

  16. TV audience fragmenting I Love Lucy Beverly Hillbillies Dallas The Cosby Show All in the Family CSI The Last M*A*S*H Laugh-In ER Seinfeld Source: www.TheLongTail.com

  17. Talk is cheap • Erosion of time-shifted audience threatens ad revenues • Nightly Leno talker costs a tenth of a drama episode • Low-cost provider NBC will force cheaper shows “ Viewers in the 28% of homes with DVRs are recording programs at 8 and 9 p.m. and playing them back later in the evening, hurting the 10 p.m. hour. Of the 10 prime-time programs that gained the biggest audience from DVR usage this year, none were on at 10 p.m. N.Y. Times, Dec. 13, 2008 ”

  18. End-running the media In millions of viewers Source: TV Newser.Com

  19. ? What happened?

  20. Everything has changed YesterdayMedia 1.0 Today Media 2.0 TomorrowMedia 3.0 Traditional media Advertisers Consumers New media

  21. A whole new approach to media

  22. Infrastructure intensive > Infrastructure lite

  23. Latent > Immediate

  24. Widely broadcast > Individually controlled

  25. Institutionally produced > User generated

  26. One size fits all > Specialized niches

  27. Narrow scope > Global reach

  28. Lean-back > Lean forward

  29. Traditional Content = Knowledge Cool and passive Disciplined, critical readers Technologically tentative See tech as tool for information Favor structure, predictability Value professional content Relatively long attention span Loyal and relatively predictable New Content = Entertainment Hot and proactive Casual viewers but avid creators Technologically intrepid Tech = community, self-expression Embrace serendipity Prefer user-generated content Active, impatient grazers Faithful to none but Facebook New media consumers are totally different

  30. What next-gen consumers want Media use By respondents 8-18 years old Games 8% Mobile 13% Television 31% Computers 13% Video/DVD 12% Audio 18% Print 7% Source: Kaiser Family Foundation

  31. ? What to do?

  32. Disrupted Journalism

  33. Disruptive Disrupted Journalism

  34. Not your father’s journalism Static, self-contained and predictable Event Facts Spin Reaction Story Narrative Context Consequence Result Print Broadcast Internet

  35. Turning journalism inside out Outside in Crowdsourcing Comments/blogs Story ranking Inside out Source material/data Moderated discussions Reputation ranking In the box Cross-media Mobile Maps Out of the box Third-party content Algorithmic publishing Personalized/predictive Calculators Widgets Games

  36. The journalism of engagement • Talk with readers, not to them • Be an interactive host, not some remote voice of authority • Tell them who you are • Post a pic and bio so readers recognize you as “brand” • Tell them what you think – and why • Reveal your point of view and the reasons for it • Admit what you don’t know • Invite readers into the story, tell them how to participate • Show your work • Point to original documents and source material

  37. Not off to a good start

  38. How newspapers failed online Let’s put our valuable content online for free. Photo: Blogs.Science Forums.Net Original Sin

  39. Dangerous reliance on Media 1.0 • Generic portal platform • Static, dated shovelware • Minimum interactivity • Limited user participation • Scant personalization • No social characteristics • Minimal rich media • Few viral features • Modest mobile capability

  40. Dangerous reliance on print for online traffic Two-thirds of newspaper site visitors come from print, and… 67% 33% Newspaper site visitors are aging into oblivion 30% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 20% 10% Source: Belden Associates

  41. Dangerous reliance on print advertising Sales by source at typical publisher 95% of revenues from traditional print advertisers 70% of revenues from the top three classified verticals All traditional categories are in cyclical and secular decline

  42. Hopeful interlude

  43. Embracing Media 3.0 • Segment market to develop multiple niche opportunities • Become an agile, media-agnostic cluster of start-ups • Embrace technology; modernize team and infrastructure • Incubate new technologically and commercially astute products • Emphasize intuitive, just-in-time personalized information • Develop contextual, transaction-oriented ad paradigms • Migrate existing audience to your new services and brands • Shamelessly exploit your unfair advantages

  44. Unfair (but not inevitable) advantages • Commanding, highly visible, well regarded brands Editorial and commercial credibility Unrivaled content-creation capabilities Large, geographically concentrated audiences Millions of “free,” cross-media marketing impressions Deep and long-standing advertising relationships Rich cash flows superior to those of many industries Use them…or lose them

  45. ‘What do you do when it all falls apart?’

  46. ? Time to kill?

  47. Read my blog www.newsosaur.blogspot.com

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