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SAMI Consulting. What forces will change our world? A commentary. Dr Chris Yapp. OK… Let’s be cynical. Where’s my personal jet pack? .COM bubble, 2008 Crash…. Self-driving cars …. Flying cars (remember them?) The End is nigh! Club of Rome 1973 1980 The New Ice Age!

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Sami consulting
SAMI Consulting

What forces will change our world?

A commentary

Dr Chris Yapp

www.samiconsulting.co.uk


Ok let s be cynical
OK… Let’s be cynical

  • Where’s my personal jet pack?

  • .COM bubble, 2008 Crash….

  • Self-driving cars …. Flying cars (remember them?)

  • The End is nigh! Club of Rome 1973

  • 1980 The New Ice Age!

  • The “Cure for Cancer”

www.samiconsulting.co.uk


What we think we know
What we think we know

  • Key Trends

  • Discontinuities

  • Roadblocks

  • Events

  • From the forces deck

    • Demographics

    • West to East

    • Environment & Resources

    • Technology

    • Globalisation

  • The Future is faster!

www.samiconsulting.co.uk


A trend is your friend until it bends
A trend is your friend ---------- until it bends

  • Population

    • Ageing

    • Arab Spring

    • Women’s rights

    • Diaspora

    • Chinese migration

    • Resource Wars

    • Education and skills

    • Obesity

  • Technology

    • R&D Productivity eg Pharma

    • New materials: Architecture

    • 3D Printing

    • Energy Security

    • Internet of Things

www.samiconsulting.co.uk


When trends interact
When trends interact?

  • Life expectancy is increasing 1 year every decade

  • New Science will extend life spans

  • Obesity is lowering life expectations

  • Long-term conditions will become more manageable

  • Retirement and the Pensions Crisis?

  • Life expectancy gap widening across social classes

  • Ageing population with rising schools rolls

www.samiconsulting.co.uk


Interaction between technology and society
Interaction between Technology and Society

  • Social values

  • Open and Closed?

  • Institutional maturity

  • Legal Frameworks

  • Regulation

  • Jurisdiction

  • War and instability

“The Stone Age didn’t finish because we ran out of stones”

Sheik Yamani

www.samiconsulting.co.uk


What we tend to overlook
What we tend to overlook

  • Events: The next Los Angeles Earthquake

  • How many countries in 2050?

  • Religion…

  • How many companies from 1993 are still around?. How many of today’s will exist in 2033?

www.samiconsulting.co.uk


The dinosaurs died out
The dinosaurs died out…

“ There are only 66 institutions in the West that have survived since the 1600s without fundamental changes to their mission and structure: these are

The Parliament of Iceland

The Parliament of the Isle of Man

The Catholic Church

The Lutheran Church

and

62 Universities”

www.samiconsulting.co.uk


Electronic publishing
Electronic Publishing

Market Impact

Publishers?

Bookstores?

The Third Horizon

www.samiconsulting.co.uk


Reasons to be optimistic
Reasons to be Optimistic

  • 2013

    • 60th Anniversary of DNA structure

    • 40th Anniversary of Arpanet in Europe

    • 300th Anniversary of the death of Edward Lloyd

    • New waves of sciences and technologies arriving in next decade

www.samiconsulting.co.uk


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