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SAMI Consulting

SAMI Consulting. The Road to 2035 Chris Yapp Cass Business School 1 st April 2014. Three Horizons (IFF). Source: Carlotta P erez. The World of 2035. Life in 2035. Energy 2035. Matter. Energy. Information. New materials. Graphene. Protocells. Some key Technologies.

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SAMI Consulting

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  1. SAMI Consulting The Road to 2035 Chris Yapp Cass Business School 1st April 2014 www.samiconsulting.co.uk

  2. Three Horizons (IFF) www.samiconsulting.co.uk

  3. Source: Carlotta Perez www.samiconsulting.co.uk

  4. www.samiconsulting.co.uk

  5. The World of 2035 Life in 2035 Energy 2035

  6. Matter Energy Information

  7. New materials Graphene Protocells www.samiconsulting.co.uk

  8. Some key Technologies • Cloud Computing • Internet of Things • 3D Printing • Smart Cities • LIDAR • New Materials • Synthetic Biology www.samiconsulting.co.uk

  9. The Next waves of Computing • Augmented Reality • Internet of Things • Virtual Reality • Big Data • 3D printing • Gamification www.samiconsulting.co.uk

  10. Internet of Things www.samiconsulting.co.uk

  11. Smart cities www.samiconsulting.co.uk

  12. Sensor nets Landslides Flood management www.samiconsulting.co.uk

  13. Smart grids www.samiconsulting.co.uk

  14. Challenges in ICT • Driving up Demand for energy • Adjusting to the low carbon world • Growth of Wireless • Critical National Infrastructure • Spectrum • Electricity • Solar Flares www.samiconsulting.co.uk

  15. It’s about the people… • Food Security • Patterns of Work/Career/Commuting…. • Values • Privacy • Social Vertical Farms www.samiconsulting.co.uk

  16. Governance • International Organisations • Jurisdiction: tax and law • Social Innovation/Entrepreneurs • The “ John Lewis” Model • Decline of the PLC? • Sovereign Wealth/Private Equity/Family owned www.samiconsulting.co.uk

  17. Social Innovations of the Industrial Society Limited Liability Company Co-op, Mutuals, Friendly societies, Building societies Trade Unions Schools, Libraries, Museums, Modern University Police, Fire Services NHS Local Authorities …. www.samiconsulting.co.uk

  18. What we think we know • Key Trends • Discontinuities • Roadblocks • Events • The Asian Century? • Population and migration • Health • Education • Food security • Energy security • Climate and Environment • Technology Progress • The Future is faster! www.samiconsulting.co.uk

  19. A trend is your friend until it bends • Population • Ageing • Arab Spring • Women’s rights • Chinese migration • Resource Wars • Education and skills • Obesity • Technology • R&D Productivity Pharma • New materials: Architecture • 3D Printing • Energy Security • Internet of Things www.samiconsulting.co.uk

  20. Interaction between Technology and Society • Social values • Open and Closed? • Institutional maturity • Legal Frameworks • Jurisdiction • War and instability “The Stone Age didn’t finish because we ran out of stones” Sheik Yamani www.samiconsulting.co.uk

  21. What we tend to overlook • Events: The next Los Angeles Earthquake • How many countries in 2035? • Religion… • How many companies from 1995 are still around?. How many of today’s will exist in 2035? www.samiconsulting.co.uk

  22. High-Technology Myths • Change is exponential • Technology is inevitable • Important new products arrive ever faster • The rising tide of valuable information • Today’s high-tech price reductions are unprecedented • Products are adopted faster • Invention gestation time is decreasing • The internet changes everything • Moore’s law really matters Source:Futurehype, Bob Seidensticker www.samiconsulting.co.uk

  23. Thoughts on Energy Futures • Centralised vs decentralised generation and consumption • Systemic Risk • Local Solutions vs Global • Energy Saving and management • Market vs. State vs. ? • Fuel Poverty • Past over optimism on Nuclear? www.samiconsulting.co.uk

  24. Why do we get it wrong? Today!!! Prisoners of Language Timing Unintended consequences Sources of Innovation Ask the wrong question/people? Culture: Cognitive Bias: Dominant Logic Events www.samiconsulting.co.uk

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