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SAMI Consulting

SAMI Consulting . Three Horizons. Dr Wendy Schultz. Timelines and the Future. History as a launch pad for foresight: Robert Textor, Ethnographic Futures -- the rubber band effect. Paul Saffo, Technological Forecasting -- twice as far back as forward. Layering history of different sectors:

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SAMI Consulting

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  1. SAMI Consulting Three Horizons Dr Wendy Schultz www.samiconsulting.co.uk

  2. Timelines and the Future • History as a launch pad for foresight: • Robert Textor, Ethnographic Futures -- the rubber band effect. • Paul Saffo, Technological Forecasting -- twice as far back as forward. • Layering history of different sectors: • Analysing different patterns of change. • Identifying different speeds of change.

  3. Timeline Layers: Speed Differentials

  4. Horizon Scanning • Beginning of research, not the end; • “N of 1”; • Unearths contradictions; • Subjective, not objective; • “Unscientific” sources; • Systems-based; • Unfamiliar concepts. • Primary futures tool for identifying and monitoring emerging change. • Related to issues management and competitive intelligence. • ”Environment” refers to the information environment – all media – and ”scanning” to logically structured, continuous monitoring of data sources. • High quality scanning: • identifies an emerging issue that is objectively new even to experts, • confirms or is confirmed by additional scan hits, and • has been identified in time for social dialogue, impact assessment, and policy formation.

  5. Time “present” “future” Horizon Scanning Mapping a trend’s diffusion into public awareness from its starting point as an emerging issue of change. system limits; problems develop; unintended impacts global; multiple dispersed cases; trends and drivers 3rd horizon Number of cases; degree of public awareness institutions and government newspapers; news magazines; broadcast media laypersons’ magazines; websites; documentaries local; few cases; emerging issues Pockets of future found In present specialists’ journals and websites scientists; artists; radicals; mystics

  6. Scanning + Three Horizons • Scanning provides a starting point to monitor possible transformative / disruptive changes. • Three Horizons helps us organise and consider the interplay of trends and emerging changes. • Uses: • Challenge obsolescing assumptions; • Spot emerging constraints / opportunities; • Get beyond incrementalism.

  7. The Three Horizons Framework Three Horizons Framework for Layering Change Life-cycles B Sharp, T Hodgson, A Curry

  8. Origins of the Three Horizons • Bill Sharpe, International Futures Forum: • Technology roadmapping - inadequate • UK Foresight: Intelligent Infrastructures • Emerging practice • Reflection Three Horizons: The Patterning of Hope • Curry and Hodgson, cases and article • Growing community of practice www.samiconsulting.co.uk

  9. Three Horizons www.samiconsulting.co.uk

  10. Horizon ONE Managerial • Today’s dominant pattern(s) – accumulations of past decisions & designs • H1 systems are fully integrated with surrounding culture – ‘locked in’ • Well-established ways of dealing with problems frame approaches to new challenges • Dominated by quantitative sense of time as a limited resource www.samiconsulting.co.uk

  11. Horizon THREE Visionary • Imagined futures and emerging changes – transformative shifts from the present • Explores the ‘full range of possible social settlements and systems that could be brought into being’ • Surfaces and questions underlying cultural assumptions • Dominated by qualitative awareness of time as a defining moment of decision www.samiconsulting.co.uk

  12. Horizon TWO Entrepreneurial • Looks both ways – past and future – to respond to limitations of H1 and opportunities of H3 • Creates a zone of innovation and turbulence • Danger: “H1 capture” – too mired in the past • Dominated by feelings of opportunity, engagement and a sense of opportunity cost – trade-offs that must be made www.samiconsulting.co.uk

  13. Three Horizons: Mindsets MANAGER ENTREPRENEUR VISIONARY Eg, MUSIC, MOVIES, CDs, DVDs Eg., MUSIC, MOVIES – transformational disruptor - iTunes Eg, MUSIC, MOVIES – paradigm buster - Napster

  14. Three Horizons: Questions • What are the current working assumptions and systems of production and marketing? What are you taking for granted when you make managementdecisions (horizon 1)? • What changes are emerging as completely new paradigms and means to understand and undertake various human activities (horizon 3)? What are visionary leaders saying? • Which of the immediate changes you see represent a transition or accommodation for evolving tensions as current assumptions and work patterns obsolesce, and transformative changes erupt into possibility (horizon 2)? What opportunities do you see? What are entrepreneursbuilding?

  15. Three Horizons Insights “Instead of seeing a world of stability to which change and uncertainty ‘happen,’ we instead become aware that everything that seems fixed and stable is just part of a slow process of change, embedded in other processes that extend out as far as we want to explore.” www.samiconsulting.co.uk

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