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Designing Sustainable Landscapes for Avian Conservation in the SAMBI area

Designing Sustainable Landscapes for Avian Conservation in the SAMBI area. Presentation Outline. Project overview and objectives Identifying conservation priorities Identification of focal species Calculating priorities Selecting focal areas Input from Management Board

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Designing Sustainable Landscapes for Avian Conservation in the SAMBI area

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  1. Designing Sustainable Landscapes for Avian Conservation in the SAMBI area

  2. Presentation Outline • Project overview and objectives • Identifying conservation priorities • Identification of focal species • Calculating priorities • Selecting focal areas • Input from Management Board • Availability & application of data • Related project • Optimal Conservation Strategies

  3. Project overview and objectives

  4. Funding and Cooperation • Funding • Multistate Conservation Grant • USGS Gap Analysis Program • USGS Science Support Project (Development of Inference Methods) • USFWS ACJV • Cooperators • NC Cooperative Fish & Wildlife Research Unit • AL Cooperative Fish & Wildlife Research Unit • Atlantic Coast Joint Venture

  5. Project Goal Develop methodology and enhance the capacity of states, joint ventures and other partners to assess and design sustainable landscape conservation for birds and other wildlife in the eastern United States.

  6. Project Objectives • Assess the current capability of landscape to support bird populations • Predict the impacts of landscape-level changes (e.g., from urban growth, conservation programs, climate change) • Target conservation programs to effectively and efficiently achieve objectives • Enhance coordination among partners during the planning, implementation and evaluation of habitat conservation through conservation design

  7. Collaborative approach • Landscape dynamics – 100yrs (NC CFWRU & BaSIC) • Climate change (3 Scenarios) • Sea level rise (3 Scenarios) • Urbanization (1 Scenario) • Identification of focal species (ACJV & AL CFWRU) • Potential habitat for priority birds (NC CFWRU & BaSIC) • Modeling conservation priorities (AL CFWRU) • Delineating focal areas (ACJV & AL CFWRU)

  8. Project Extent • Pilot Area: • South Atlantic Migratory Bird Initiative • 12 Priority habitats • Potential Expansion • SE-GAP Project area • NE-GAP Project area

  9. Identifying conservation priorities

  10. Approach • Select focal species for each habitat • Potential habitat* • Source populations* • Suitable sites for each habitat* • Landform • Geographic constraints • Constraints on management/restoration* • Long-term commitment * Affected by landscape dynamics

  11. Identification of focal species

  12. Focal species

  13. Calculating priorities

  14. Resource Density Nearer to larger patches =  DENSITY • When density of resources is higher • Patch size is larger • Distance to resources is smaller • Cost of enlarging patches is lower • Connectivity is greater

  15. Kernel size

  16. Species-specific data • Potential habitat • Potential source populations

  17. Habitat-specific data • Suitable sites • Conservation estate • Management potential

  18. Priority model • Combine densities to assign priority • Limiting factors (*) • Density of suitable sites for habitat x (S) • Potential to manage (F) • Compensatory factors (+) • Density of source populations (P) • Density of conservation estate (L) • Density of potential habitat (H) Priority = S*F*(P+L+H)

  19. Habitat priorities

  20. Temporal dynamics

  21. Integrating temporal dynamics

  22. Comparing emission scenarios

  23. Discounting future scenarios

  24. Focal species values

  25. Alluvial forested wetlands No Focal Species Focal Species Equal Weights Weighted Focal Species (a) vegetation density (b) focal species (c) focal species value

  26. Estuarine wetlands (a) (b) (c) No Focal Species Focal Species Equal Weights Weighted Focal Species

  27. Grassland (a) (b) (c) No Focal Species Focal Species Equal Weights Weighted Focal Species

  28. Longleaf No Focal Species Focal Species Equal Weights Weighted Focal Species

  29. Selecting focal areas

  30. Approach • Determine area required to meet SAMBI population objectives • Use published home ranges or densities • Multiplied by population objective • Delineate 5 sites from highest priority in each habitat What about conflicts?

  31. Conflicts • Start with highest ranking habitat • Delineate highest priority area • Mask focal area • Select next habitat How to rank habitats?

  32. Priority alternatives • Rarity of habitat in SAMBI • Rarity of habitat in SAMBI by state • Number of imperiled species • Most imperiled species • Historic extent

  33. Ranking habitats

  34. Comparison of alternatives - 1

  35. Comparison of alternatives - 2

  36. Comparison of alternatives - 3

  37. Comparison of alternatives - 4

  38. Comparison of alternatives - 5

  39. Input fromACJV • What is most important? • Rarity • Species? • Habitat? • Cost? • States?

  40. Availability & application of data

  41. Project Web site – publications • NCSU • Sea Level Rise Modeling for the SAMBI DSL Project (PDF) • Urban Modeling for the SAMBI DSL Project (PDF) • Landscape Succession Modeling for the SAMBI DSL Project (PDF) • Avian Habitat Modeling for the SAMBI DSL Project (PDF) • Occupancy Models and Strategic Habitat Conservation for Avian Species in the Southeastern Coastal Plain of the United States (Monica Iglecia MS Thesis) • Auburn • Moody Dissertation • Incorporating Expert Knowledge in Decision-Support Models for Avian Conservation • Moody, A.T., and J.B. Grand. 2012. Incorporating Expert Knowledge in Decision-Support Models for Avian Conservation in A.H. Perera et al. (eds.), Expert Knowledge and Its Application in Landscape Ecology. Springer. • Focal species as method to plan spatially explicit conservation priorities. (June 2012) • Conservation priorities in an uncertain future (June 2012)

  42. Project web site – GIS Data • Sea Level Rise (44 data layers) • SLAMM Output for SAMBI DSL Utilizing A1B Emission Scenario, Decadal Predictions 2000-2100 (ESRI GRID) • SLAMM Output for SAMBI DSL Utilizing A1FI Emission Scenario, Decadal Predictions 2000-2100 (ESRI GRID) • SLAMM Output for SAMBI DSL Utilizing A2 Emission Scenario, Decadal Predictions 2000-2100 (ESRI GRID) • SLAMM Output for SAMBI DSL Utilizing B1 Emission Scenario, Decadal Predictions 2000-2100 (ESRI GRID) • Urban Growth (11 data layers) • SLEUTH Output for SAMBI DSL, Decadal Predictions 2000-2100 (ESRI GRID)

  43. Project web site – GIS Data • Landscape Succession with Sea Level Rise and Urban Growth (33 data layers) • VDDT/TELSA Output for SAMBI DSL Utilizing A1B Emission Scenario, Decadal Predictions 2000-2100 (ESRI GRID) • VDDT/TELSA Output for SAMBI DSL Utilizing A2 Emission Scenario, Decadal Predictions 2000-2100 (ESRI GRID) • VDDT/TELSA Output for SAMBI DSL Utilizing B1 Emission Scenario, Decadal Predictions 2000-2100 (ESRI GRID)

  44. Project web site -- GIS Data • Species Habitat Models (1,320 data layers) • Avian Habitat Models for SAMBI DSL Utilizing A1B, A2 and B1 Emission Scenarios, Decadal Predictions 2000-2100 (ESRI GRID) • Priority maps • Priority surface for each habitat, decade, and Emission Scenario (396 layers) (ArcASCII) • Integrated priority surfaces for each habitat, Emission Scenario, discount rate (72 layers) (ArcASCII) • Focal areas for each Emission Scenario and Alternative (15 layers) (Shapefile)

  45. Using priority surfaces • Applications of Open Pine DST (similar) • NFWF projects within the EGCP JV • Landowner Incentive Program Projects in Alabama • Partners for Fish & Wildlife Conservation Projects in Alabama • Web Application – coming soon

  46. Range-wide Open Pine DST • Incorporating bird (wildlife) responses • Direct link to population objectives • Spatially explicit population predictions • Direct link to Desired Forest Conditions • Preferred conservation actions • Which actions? • At what cost? • When?

  47. Conceptual Decision Model • What will provide the greatest value given the current conditions? • Current conditions – habitat, bird populations • Value  max(bird populations), min(cost)

  48. Optimal Conservation Strategies Related Project

  49. LCC Objectives HierarchyOptimal Conservation Strategy workshop (May 3 – 5, 2011)

  50. Actions & Strategies & Decisions • What? • What action? • When? • Does timing matter? • Where? • Does location matter? • How much? • What can we afford? • How much is enough? • Action – what we do for conservation (tactic) • Strategy – where, when, and how much we do • Decision – choose a strategy & portfolio of actions

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