Designing Sustainable Landscapes for Bird Populations in the Eastern United States

1. Conservation Design Designing Sustainable Landscapes for Bird Populations in the Eastern United States a cooperative project by: NC Cooperative Fish & Wildlife Research Unit, NCSU AL Cooperative Fish & Wildlife Research Unit, Auburn University Atlantic Coast Joint Venture

2. Project Objectives Assess the current capability of habitats in ecoregions in the eastern United States to sustain bird populations Predict the impacts of landscape-level changes (e.g., from urban growth, conservation programs, climate change) on the future capability of these habitats to support bird populations Target conservation programs to effectively and efficiently achieve objectives in State Wildlife Action Plans and bird conservation plans and evaluate progress under these plans Enhance coordination among partners during the planning, implementation and evaluation of habitat conservation through conservation design

3. SAMBI Study Extent Two test areas for selected models (e.g., Urban growth)

4. Designing Sustainable Landscapes Status • Four partner workshops held (NC/VA, SC, GA, FL) using structured decision making • expert input by 55 state, federal and NGO partners • 26 priority species by 16 major habitat types • species-habitat models and decision support tools • Development of products by NCSU & Auburn U. • Developing bird-habitat models that assess capacity • Assessing landscape change (climate change, succession, urban growth) • Developing longleaf pine decision support tool - NFWF • Range Dynamics for North American Landbirds - USGS

5. Modeling Landscape Change Existing Landscape Conditions Succession & Disturbance Models Range of Future Landscape Conditions (10, 20, 50, 100 yrs) Global Climate Models Urban Growth Models Schematic of Model Flow

6. How do GCM variables relate to landscape changes? Precipitation Sea Level Rise Temperature Evapotranspiration Drought Disease Fire Frequency Insect Outbreak Habitat Loss & Shifts in Habitat

7. Model Building… Species’ Range or SAMBI Latitude Ecological (landscape) basis for sensitivity Life History Traits Covariates Habitat Urban Climatic Biological Processes context • Evolved in the southeast • Poor disperser • Fire Frequency • 2º cavity nester Candidate Model Set

8. 2000

9. 2100

10. Proportion and extent of land cover in Charleston region predicted to be converted to urban in 100 years Lake Marion Lake Marion Charleston Urban Center Charleston Urban Center Predicted Landscape 2101 Initial Landscape 2001

11. Conservation DesignPriority Landscape – Current Priority = Suitability * Fire * (Potential + Source + Conservation

12. Conservation DesignPriority Landscape – 100 GCM b1 Priority = Suitability * Fire * (Potential + Source + Conservation

13. Range of Ecological Systems MappingCould apply approach throughout this area

15. Designing Sustainable Landscapes Products (Dec. 2010+) • Representative bird-habitat models for all habitat types in SAMBI area – existing habitat capacity • Landscape change analysis (climate change, urban growth, conservation) – future landscape conditions and habitat capacity • Integration of bird-habitat and landscape change models into decision support tools – optimal landscape designs, management alternatives • Habitat mapping complete in northeast through RCN – allow for expansion of approach to rest of ACJV • Alternative sea-level rise marsh models – USGS Science Support Project

16. Conservation DesignAdditional Needs • Expand to SAMBI pilot to Piedmont • Expand SAMBI/Piedmont to all taxa with USFWS South Atlantic LCC • Begin development of bird-habitat models in the northeast using ecological systems RCN? • Application to regional and state climate change adaptation planning • Seek funding for conservation design approach in other areas • Additional Science support staff to maintain this approach