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Wind in the UK – a growing market. Dr Gordon Edge Director of Policy RenewableUK. A word on who we are…. Wind starting to deliver. 2004: 250MW 2005: 440MW 2006: 630MW 2007: 430MW 2008: 867MW 2009: 1,077MW. Operational wind farms. Ttt H. Ttt H H H H H H H H L K. 4,491MW

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wind in the uk a growing market

Wind in the UK – a growing market

Dr Gordon Edge

Director of Policy

RenewableUK

wind starting to deliver
Wind starting to deliver

2004: 250MW 2005: 440MW 2006: 630MW 2007: 430MW2008: 867MW2009: 1,077MW

operational wind farms
Operational wind farms

Ttt

H

Ttt

H

H

H

H

H

H

H

H

L

K

  • 4,491MW
    • 3,450MW onshore
    • 1,041MW offshore
  • 2,872 turbines
wind farms under construction
Wind farms under construction

H

  • 1,656MW
    • 537MW onshore
    • 1,119MW offshore
  • 614 turbines

H

H

H

H

H

wind farms consented
Wind farms consented
  • Considerable capacity consented but yet to start construction
    • 4,357MW onshore wind
    • 3,127MW offshore wind
  • 13,600MW in total built, building or ready to build
the onshore planning logjam
The onshore planning logjam
  • ~8,000MW of onshore capacity is built, building or ready to build
  • However, nearly 20,000MW has entered the planning system since 2002
  • ~2,500MW rejected
  • 7,700MW being held up in planning
  • Aviation issues a key problem
moving ahead onshore
Moving ahead onshore
  • Projects consented may still have barriers to delivery
    • Planning conditions may need to be discharged
    • Grid connections may still be awaited
    • Finance may not be in place
  • Nonetheless, we anticipate delivery of ~1GW/year for the next five years
    • 2010 may see a dip in onshore delivery over 2009, mostly due to finance issues
the uk has a healthy offshore pipeline

32 GW

The UK has a healthy offshore pipeline

47GW of leases in total…

20,000

Round

3

…But when are they delivered?

Wind Farm Capacity (MW)

10.000

STW

6.4 GW

Extensions

~ 1 – 2 GW

4000

3000

2000

1000

0

Installed

Under

Construction/

Contracted

Consented

Planned

near term delivery quite clear
Near term delivery quite clear

Source: UK Offshore Wind: Staying on Track, report by Garrad Hassan for BWEA, June 2009

possible offshore delivery post 2015
Possible offshore delivery post-2015

Crown Estate

20% attrition, some projects delayed by 1 year

30% attrition, most projects delayed by 2 years

  • Installed in 2020:
  • High: 45GW; Medium: 24GW; Low: 14GW
some uncertainties
Some uncertainties
  • The Election
    • Unclear what effect a change of Government might have
    • May be changes in support mechanism, planning
  • Implementation of ‘Connect & Manage’
    • Implications for connection, particularly in Scotland
  • Implementation of the OFTO regime
    • Affects offshore projects particularly around 2013-16
  • Charging for transmission services
    • Potential move to per MWh charges instead of per kW per year
slide13
So…
  • Despite some uncertainty, the UK is moving to a market of:
    • ~1GW/year onshore, 2010-20
    • ~1GW/year offshore, 2010-15
    • ~3-4GW/year offshore, 2015-20
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