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Energy policy and long term energy demand in Croatian households sector

Energy policy and long term energy demand in Croatian households sector. Tomislav Pukšec 1 dipl.ing. Prof.dr.sc. Brian Vad M athiesen 2 Prof.dr.sc. Neven Duić 1 1 University of Zagreb, Faculty of Mechanical Engineering and Naval Architecture 2 Aalborg University. 20th HED Forum

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Energy policy and long term energy demand in Croatian households sector

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  1. Energy policy and long term energy demand in Croatian households sector Tomislav Pukšec1 dipl.ing. Prof.dr.sc. Brian Vad Mathiesen2 Prof.dr.sc. Neven Duić1 1University of Zagreb, Faculty of Mechanical Engineering and Naval Architecture 2Aalborg University 20th HED Forum Zagreb, 18th ofNovember 2011

  2. EU energy context • Security of energy supply • Import dependence from 50% to 70% by 2030 • Employment and regional development policies • Deindustrialization and trade liberalization • “Boosting growth and jobs by meeting our climate change commitments” • Mitigation of global warming • Environmental protection • Sustainable development

  3. Energy - climate package 2008 • 20-20-20 till 2020 • 20% RES • 20% CO2 emission reduction • 20% less energy consumed

  4. Towards 2050 • Decarbonising power • Renewables • Carbon capture and storage (CCS) • Nuclear? • Four pillars of Post carbon society • Renewable Energy • Buildings as Positive Power Plants • Energy Storage • Smart grids and Plug-in Vehicles

  5. Motivation • Main goal  to develop the methodology and mathematic model of future energy demand of a households sector (HED Model - “Households Energy Demand” Model) • Implementation of energy regulation • Build upon already existing energy planning tools developed at the Faculty of Mechanical Engineering and Naval Architecture • Methodology applicable to other countries • HED Model  tested on Croatia as a case study

  6. Methodology • Bottom up approach • Data intensive • Modeling the base year (2008) • Describing all the mechanisms • Summarizing all sub-categories which leads to final results • Modeling long term energy demand of households sector •  Making a referent scenario • Possibilities of constant modifications and add-ons • Comparing the results with the National energy strategy

  7. Methodology • Developing methodology to project official national energy strategy •  Period between 2030. – 2050. • Demography • GDP/capita • Energy intensity

  8. Methodology • Wedges approach • How does a certain measure influence future energy demand

  9. Methodology – transport wedges

  10. Methodology – industry wedges Final energy demand –Croatian industry sector (strategy) Final energy demand –Croatian industry sector (modeled referent scenario)

  11. Methodology – households sector • Modeling available surfaces • Geographic distribution • Different usage types • Renovation/demolition/building tempo • Heat demand • Heat losses • Transmission and ventilation • Heat gains • Solar and internal

  12. Methodology – households sector • Cooling demand • Cooling degree days • Electrical appliances • Specific energy consumption and energy efficiency • Cooking & hot water • Using available norms • Survey/literature data  specific consumption and energy efficiency • Fuel and technology mixes

  13. UTJECAJ TEHNOLOGIJE I FINANCIJSKIH MEHANIZAMA NA POTROŠNJU ENERGIJE

  14. Results • Referent scenario • 3 refurbishment scenarios • 3 different fuel mix options • Comparison with the national energy strategy

  15. Results – impact of zero energy buildings on distribution of final heat demand

  16. Results – different yearly refurbishment rates

  17. Results – referent scenario

  18. Results – comparison with the National energy strategy (2030-2050 is modeled based on previously presented methodology)

  19. Results – biomass option

  20. Results – biomass option

  21. Results – district heating option

  22. Results – district heating option

  23. Results – heat pumps option

  24. Results – heat pumps option

  25. Results UTJECAJ TEHNOLOGIJE I FINANCIJSKIH MEHANIZAMA NA POTROŠNJU ENERGIJE

  26. Conclusion • Methodology is applicable to other energy systems and its households sector • Great possibilities for energy savings • Key element is enforcing current building codes for all buildings that are being built or refurbished • Results show that heat pumps ill have significant role in future households allowing significant savings regarding final energy demand. • One of the conclusions drawn from the presented results is the fact that Croatian national energy demand scenarios regarding households sector needs to be considered with a certain reserve since bottom up modelling shows a certain room for energy savings improvements.

  27. Thank you for your attention! E-mail: neven.duic@fsb.hr • Department of Energy, Power Engineering and Environment

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