Swedish energy agency long term energy forecast 2008
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Swedish Energy Agency – Long term energy forecast 2008. AES-meeting 2009-05-06 Jonas Paulsson, The Swedish Energy Agency [email protected] Presentation. Method Results: Long-term energy forecast 2008 Development. Long-term energy forecast - in general.

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Swedish Energy Agency – Long term energy forecast 2008

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Swedish energy agency long term energy forecast 2008

Swedish Energy Agency – Long term energy forecast 2008

AES-meeting 2009-05-06

Jonas Paulsson, The Swedish Energy Agency

[email protected]


Presentation

Presentation

  • Method

  • Results: Long-term energy forecast 2008

  • Development


Long term energy forecast in general

Long-term energy forecast - in general

  • The main aim of the forecast is to analyse the future energy consumption based on the current means and other given assumptions

  • The projection period is 10-25 years

  • Collaborations are carried out with other authorities and economic operators

  • The forecast is used as a base for the emissions projections to EU (EU-directive 280/2004)

  • It is also used as a base for decisions-making (such as energy and climate policies)


Method

Method

Important assumptions

  • Fossil fuel prices are based on IEA’s future projections

  • The macro-economic development is based on data and calculations from the National Institute of Economic Research (EMEC)

  • The electricity prices are based on calculations carried out by the MARKAL-NORDIC model

  • CO2 prices in the EU-ETS are based on the fuel switching cost calculations (natural gas and coal)


Method continues

Method continues...

The future energy needs/demands are:

  • based on separate energy forecasts in the following sectors:

    • Transports

    • Industry

    • Households and services

    • Agriculture, fishing and forestry

  • This information is used as input in the Markal-Nordic model


Scenarios and exogenous assumptions

Scenarios and exogenous assumptions


Future energy consumption

Future energy consumption

  • Energy consumption increases during the forecast period

  • The increase takes place mainly in transports- and industry sectors

  • Energy consumption in households- and in services sector decreases


Energy consumption domestic transports

Energy consumption - domestic transports

  • In general, the energy consumption increases in the transport sector. In addition, the following trends could be observed:

    • Increase in diesel consumption and decrease in gasoline consumption

    • Increased number of gasoline-electricity hybrid vehicles and flexifuel vehicles

    • An assumption about continuous exemption from tax on biofuels leads to increased biofuel consumption, about 11 TWh 2020


Energy consumption industry

Energy consumption - industry

  • Energy consumption increases as an effect of higher industrial production

  • Consumption of electricity increases 3 TWh and biomass 4 TWh to 2030

  • Use of oil decreases whereas coal and natural gas increases

  • Use of energy in relation to value added decreases


Energy consumption households and services etc

Energy consumption - households and services etc.

  • Energy use decreases mainly due to conversions and energy efficiency measures

  • Use of oil in the household sector is supposed to be 0 TWh in 2020

  • Electricity consumption for heating purposes decreases

  • Use of electricity (excl. for heating purposes) will be stabilized at the level of 21 TWh in 2015 due to efficiency measures


Electricity production and trade

Electricity production and trade

  • Hydro power and nuclear power increase due to higher capacity

  • Combined heat and power (CHP) in industry increases due to the green certificate system and high electricity prices

  • Combined heat and power (CHP) in district heating systems increases due to the green certificate system, high electricity prices and expansion of waste heat, and in the short-term even due to growth of gas heat

  • The green certificate system and high electricity prices explain the increase of wind power production

  • A moderate increase in the domestic energy consumption combined with increased electricity production result in high export of electricity in 2020.


Biomass excl waste

Biomass excl. waste

  • The use of biomass strongly increases to 2020 mainly due to:

    • high fossil fuel prices

    • continuing exemption from tax for biofuels and the green certificate system


Share energy from renewable sources according to the renewable energy directive 2020

Share energy from renewable sources according to the renewable energy directive, 2020

  • The share of renewable energy in the reference scenario is close to the target (49%)

  • There are several uncertainties:

    • Future energy prices

    • Industrial production

    • Use of biofuels

    • Heat pumps

    • Sustainability criteria


Long term forecasts development

Long-term forecasts - development

Growing demands:

  • Consequence analyses

  • Basis for actions plans

  • Energy use forecasts

    • Renewable energy

    • Energy efficiency

    • Heat pumps


Long term forecasts development1

Long-term forecasts - development

Growing demands require:

- Improved energy statistics

- Improved energy forecasts models

- Based on correct explaining factors

- More transparent

- Less time-consuming


Swedish energy agency long term energy forecast 2008

Thank you for attention!


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