Swedish energy agency long term energy forecast 2008
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Swedish Energy Agency – Long term energy forecast 2008. AES-meeting 2009-05-06 Jonas Paulsson, The Swedish Energy Agency jonas.paulsson@energimyndigheten.se. Presentation. Method Results: Long-term energy forecast 2008 Development. Long-term energy forecast - in general.

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Swedish Energy Agency – Long term energy forecast 2008

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Swedish Energy Agency – Long term energy forecast 2008

AES-meeting 2009-05-06

Jonas Paulsson, The Swedish Energy Agency

jonas.paulsson@energimyndigheten.se


Presentation

  • Method

  • Results: Long-term energy forecast 2008

  • Development


Long-term energy forecast - in general

  • The main aim of the forecast is to analyse the future energy consumption based on the current means and other given assumptions

  • The projection period is 10-25 years

  • Collaborations are carried out with other authorities and economic operators

  • The forecast is used as a base for the emissions projections to EU (EU-directive 280/2004)

  • It is also used as a base for decisions-making (such as energy and climate policies)


Method

Important assumptions

  • Fossil fuel prices are based on IEA’s future projections

  • The macro-economic development is based on data and calculations from the National Institute of Economic Research (EMEC)

  • The electricity prices are based on calculations carried out by the MARKAL-NORDIC model

  • CO2 prices in the EU-ETS are based on the fuel switching cost calculations (natural gas and coal)


Method continues...

The future energy needs/demands are:

  • based on separate energy forecasts in the following sectors:

    • Transports

    • Industry

    • Households and services

    • Agriculture, fishing and forestry

  • This information is used as input in the Markal-Nordic model


Scenarios and exogenous assumptions


Future energy consumption

  • Energy consumption increases during the forecast period

  • The increase takes place mainly in transports- and industry sectors

  • Energy consumption in households- and in services sector decreases


Energy consumption - domestic transports

  • In general, the energy consumption increases in the transport sector. In addition, the following trends could be observed:

    • Increase in diesel consumption and decrease in gasoline consumption

    • Increased number of gasoline-electricity hybrid vehicles and flexifuel vehicles

    • An assumption about continuous exemption from tax on biofuels leads to increased biofuel consumption, about 11 TWh 2020


Energy consumption - industry

  • Energy consumption increases as an effect of higher industrial production

  • Consumption of electricity increases 3 TWh and biomass 4 TWh to 2030

  • Use of oil decreases whereas coal and natural gas increases

  • Use of energy in relation to value added decreases


Energy consumption - households and services etc.

  • Energy use decreases mainly due to conversions and energy efficiency measures

  • Use of oil in the household sector is supposed to be 0 TWh in 2020

  • Electricity consumption for heating purposes decreases

  • Use of electricity (excl. for heating purposes) will be stabilized at the level of 21 TWh in 2015 due to efficiency measures


Electricity production and trade

  • Hydro power and nuclear power increase due to higher capacity

  • Combined heat and power (CHP) in industry increases due to the green certificate system and high electricity prices

  • Combined heat and power (CHP) in district heating systems increases due to the green certificate system, high electricity prices and expansion of waste heat, and in the short-term even due to growth of gas heat

  • The green certificate system and high electricity prices explain the increase of wind power production

  • A moderate increase in the domestic energy consumption combined with increased electricity production result in high export of electricity in 2020.


Biomass excl. waste

  • The use of biomass strongly increases to 2020 mainly due to:

    • high fossil fuel prices

    • continuing exemption from tax for biofuels and the green certificate system


Share energy from renewable sources according to the renewable energy directive, 2020

  • The share of renewable energy in the reference scenario is close to the target (49%)

  • There are several uncertainties:

    • Future energy prices

    • Industrial production

    • Use of biofuels

    • Heat pumps

    • Sustainability criteria


Long-term forecasts - development

Growing demands:

  • Consequence analyses

  • Basis for actions plans

  • Energy use forecasts

    • Renewable energy

    • Energy efficiency

    • Heat pumps


Long-term forecasts - development

Growing demands require:

- Improved energy statistics

- Improved energy forecasts models

- Based on correct explaining factors

- More transparent

- Less time-consuming


Thank you for attention!


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