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LONG-TERM ENERGY MODELING FOR THE FRENCH ELECTRICITY SECTOR

LONG-TERM ENERGY MODELING FOR THE FRENCH ELECTRICITY SECTOR. a nuclear story. OBJECTIVES: ELECTRICITY SECTOR’S MODELING ISSUES. Objectives : Electricity sector’s modeling issues. Overview of French electricity sector today. Fossil plants mainly for peak and system operation.

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LONG-TERM ENERGY MODELING FOR THE FRENCH ELECTRICITY SECTOR

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  1. LONG-TERM ENERGY MODELING FOR THE FRENCH ELECTRICITY SECTOR a nuclear story Edi ASSOUMOU – CMA – ETSAP meeting Firenze 2004 – http://www.cma.ensmp.fr

  2. OBJECTIVES: ELECTRICITY SECTOR’S MODELING ISSUES Edi ASSOUMOU – CMA – ETSAP meeting Firenze 2004 – http://www.cma.ensmp.fr

  3. Objectives : Electricity sector’s modeling issues Overview of French electricity sector today • Fossil plants mainly for peak and system operation • Dominated today by nuclear power (79%) Edi ASSOUMOU – CMA – ETSAP meeting Firenze 2004 – http://www.cma.ensmp.fr

  4. 7 - 8TWh : dynamic constraints • 6TWh : Adjusting nuclear unscheduled changes • 2 - 4TWh : congestion and reserve • 2TWh : Economic stop and go cycles decision 25 – 8 = Objectives : Electricity sector’s modeling issues Difficult to bring flexibility into plants’ production criteria • For fossil plants, a recent RTE (TSO) simulation showed: 8TWh vs. 25 - 30TWh observed Edi ASSOUMOU – CMA – ETSAP meeting Firenze 2004 – http://www.cma.ensmp.fr

  5. Objectives : Electricity sector’s modeling issues Nuclear power replacement is the main driver for the future • Replacement of existing capacities • Future mix: Nuclear + Hydro + Fossil + Wind ? Edi ASSOUMOU – CMA – ETSAP meeting Firenze 2004 – http://www.cma.ensmp.fr

  6. Objectives : Electricity sector’s modeling issues The “delicate” question: Are we able to do prospective studies for fossil plants at low production shares? • Flexibility is an important criteria for small use • Only plants that causes emissions • Impact of nuclear choices on future fossil share • Future impact of wind power production Edi ASSOUMOU – CMA – ETSAP meeting Firenze 2004 – http://www.cma.ensmp.fr

  7. Objectives : Electricity sector’s modeling issues Milestones for this presentation: How we …? • Include flexibility in the model • Explore the effects of different nuclear choices • Include the impact of growing wind power Edi ASSOUMOU – CMA – ETSAP meeting Firenze 2004 – http://www.cma.ensmp.fr

  8. ISSUE1: FLEXIBILITY FOR FOSSIL PLANTS SUPPLYING POWER OR ENERGY Edi ASSOUMOU – CMA – ETSAP meeting Firenze 2004 – http://www.cma.ensmp.fr

  9. Issue1: flexibility for fossil plants – supplying power or energy We strongly underestimate fossil plants use • First solution: Minimum share for fossil plants • Our solution: Differentiated plant operation mode Edi ASSOUMOU – CMA – ETSAP meeting Firenze 2004 – http://www.cma.ensmp.fr

  10. Issue1: flexibility for fossil plants - supplying power or energy Fossil plant minimum share • 6% minimum of total production • Good for activity - Bad for technical choice Edi ASSOUMOU – CMA – ETSAP meeting Firenze 2004 – http://www.cma.ensmp.fr

  11. Issue1: flexibility for fossil plants - supplying power or energy Differentiated plant operation mode • Additional constraints for supply choice • A method to guide the results toward flexibility • 3 steps to find new winners (hopefully the right fossil plants!) Edi ASSOUMOU – CMA – ETSAP meeting Firenze 2004 – http://www.cma.ensmp.fr

  12. Issue1: flexibility for fossil plants - supplying power or energy Step1: Define flexibility by needed “type” of plant • Frequency based definition Edi ASSOUMOU – CMA – ETSAP meeting Firenze 2004 – http://www.cma.ensmp.fr

  13. Issue1: flexibility for fossil plants - supplying power or energy Step2: Quantify the need of each “type” of plant Edi ASSOUMOU – CMA – ETSAP meeting Firenze 2004 – http://www.cma.ensmp.fr

  14. Issue1: flexibility for fossil plants - supplying power or energy Step3: Allow competition to fulfil those needs • Specific hour constraints for each database • Duplicating technologies database for competition in each supply segment Edi ASSOUMOU – CMA – ETSAP meeting Firenze 2004 – http://www.cma.ensmp.fr

  15. Issue1: flexibility for fossil plants - supplying power or energy Result: Thermal production • Effective use of residual peaking plants Edi ASSOUMOU – CMA – ETSAP meeting Firenze 2004 – http://www.cma.ensmp.fr

  16. Issue1: flexibility for fossil plants - supplying power or energy Result: Additional information Normal, strong and extreme peak production Edi ASSOUMOU – CMA – ETSAP meeting Firenze 2004 – http://www.cma.ensmp.fr

  17. ISSUE2: ALTERNATIVE NUCLEAR FUTURE SCENARIO SIMULATION Edi ASSOUMOU – CMA – ETSAP meeting Firenze 2004 – http://www.cma.ensmp.fr

  18. Common hypotheses • Time horizon: 2000-2030 • Discount rate: 5% • Fuel cost: Conservative UE prospective • Trade: Fixed 252 PJ electricity exportation • Renewable: 21% of domestic demand in 2010 • Demand: RTE(TSO’s) aggregated scenario Issue2: alternative nuclear future – scenario simulation Edi ASSOUMOU – CMA – ETSAP meeting Firenze 2004 – http://www.cma.ensmp.fr

  19. Issue2: alternative nuclear future – scenario simulation Simplified view of the supply competition MARKAL model Edi ASSOUMOU – CMA – ETSAP meeting Firenze 2004 – http://www.cma.ensmp.fr

  20. Issue2: alternative nuclear future – scenario simulation Simulated scenarios • Reference scenario: Nuclear no limit No limit on future nuclear development • Alternative scenario: “Low” nuclear share By 2030, 50% max. of domestic demand Edi ASSOUMOU – CMA – ETSAP meeting Firenze 2004 – http://www.cma.ensmp.fr

  21. Issue2: alternative nuclear future – scenario simulation Results : Nuclear no limit Edi ASSOUMOU – CMA – ETSAP meeting Firenze 2004 – http://www.cma.ensmp.fr

  22. Issue2: alternative nuclear future – scenario simulation Remarks: Nuclear no limit • Fossil plants still have a small share But ... • Is the EPR growth feasible? • Is the subsequent wind power production coherent with thermal plants share? Edi ASSOUMOU – CMA – ETSAP meeting Firenze 2004 – http://www.cma.ensmp.fr

  23. Issue2: alternative nuclear future – scenario simulation Result : “Low” nuclear share Edi ASSOUMOU – CMA – ETSAP meeting Firenze 2004 – http://www.cma.ensmp.fr

  24. Issue2: alternative nuclear future – scenario simulation Remarks : “Low” nuclear share • Fossil plants do have a more consistent share now But • Wind power: Is the new fossil plants production more coherent with wind power growth ? • Emissions: New emission constraints for growing FP share! Edi ASSOUMOU – CMA – ETSAP meeting Firenze 2004 – http://www.cma.ensmp.fr

  25. ISSUE3: WIND POWER IMPACT Edi ASSOUMOU – CMA – ETSAP meeting Firenze 2004 – http://www.cma.ensmp.fr

  26. Issue3: assessing wind power impact Advantages for EU renewable targets and wind power limits • A great wind power potential : around 27 GW Wind power: the designed “hero” for renewables • Balancing WP and need for adjusting plants A real system operation concern Edi ASSOUMOU – CMA – ETSAP meeting Firenze 2004 – http://www.cma.ensmp.fr

  27. Issue3: assessing wind power impact Modeling with a fixed capacity factor: What errors we make with growing WP share? • WP creates new flexibility requirement • The new order of magnitude can be decisive for small fossil plants share • Our approach: Modify WP impacts in MARKAL Edi ASSOUMOU – CMA – ETSAP meeting Firenze 2004 – http://www.cma.ensmp.fr

  28. Issue3: assessing wind power impact Include WP effects on plants’ operation mode • TSO: Can ’t help • AVOID C: Strongly helps • INTERM: Contrasted reality Edi ASSOUMOU – CMA – ETSAP meeting Firenze 2004 – http://www.cma.ensmp.fr

  29. Issue3: assessing wind power impact Quantifying the intermediate view: INTERM • Frequency shares : “one for one rule” Edi ASSOUMOU – CMA – ETSAP meeting Firenze 2004 – http://www.cma.ensmp.fr

  30. Issue3: assessing wind power impact Results (1)- Nuclear no limit + WP impact • WP and thermal plants production Edi ASSOUMOU – CMA – ETSAP meeting Firenze 2004 – http://www.cma.ensmp.fr

  31. Issue3: assessing wind power impact Results (1)- Nuclear no limit + WP impact • WP and thermal plants production Edi ASSOUMOU – CMA – ETSAP meeting Firenze 2004 – http://www.cma.ensmp.fr

  32. Issue3: assessing wind power impact Results (2)- Technical choices for production • Thermal plants technologies Edi ASSOUMOU – CMA – ETSAP meeting Firenze 2004 – http://www.cma.ensmp.fr

  33. Issue3: assessing wind power impact • Thermal plants technologies Edi ASSOUMOU – CMA – ETSAP meeting Firenze 2004 – http://www.cma.ensmp.fr

  34. Concluding remarks • Used alone, MARKAL can give meaningful insights for the identified issues for France With small fossil plants supply share in France, a better representation of criteria for plants selection is crucial to be sound • The flexible RES can be a powerful tool for problems formulation & knowledge management • We need energy, flexibility and environment at low cost • Nuclear produces base electricity at low cost, sets the “scale” for fossil plants supply and emits wastes; • Wind power supply green electricity, “emits” flexibility • Fossil plants, provides decentralized flexibility and emits GHG • As new modelers, this study points the modeling risks and the limited solutions Edi ASSOUMOU – CMA – ETSAP meeting Firenze 2004 – http://www.cma.ensmp.fr

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