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Houston Import Study Update

This study provides an update on the Houston Import Study, evaluating options for increasing import capacity into the Houston area in order to address ongoing congestion. The study includes an analysis of economic benefits and simulations to determine the most viable option.

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Houston Import Study Update

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  1. Houston Import Study Update Jay Teixeira Ehsan Rehman RPG Meeting

  2. Houston Import Study • Why are we studying this? • ERCOT Independent Review of Sharyland’s ERCOT Southeast Loop RPG Project (Tier 1) • ERCOT Independent Review of Centerpoint’s North to Houston Constraint Mitigation RPG Project (Tier 1) • Ongoing congestion in real-time • Congestion identified during 2009 5YTP RPG Meeting

  3. Houston Import Study Assumptions • Study Assumptions • Base case = 2009 5YTP 2014 Economic Case • Includes 2009 5YTP projects identified for 2014 • Includes all CREZ transmission facilities • Does not include additional CREZ generation • Analysis will focus on economic benefit of additional import capacity into Houston area per ERCOT RPG Charter and Procedures Section 3.3 • UPLAN • Assumed load can be served reliably without additional import capability, but additional import project may allow reliability criteria to be met at a lower overall cost RPG Meeting

  4. Approach BC + New Gas Gen North of Houston BC + New Gas Gen In Houston BC + Load Variation Base Case BC + CREZ Generation BC + Comanche Peak 3 & 4 BC + STP 3 & 4 Bulk of analysis will focus on the base case. Options may be eliminated at this stage. Alternate scenarios will be used to quantify relative merit of options that pass first stage. Final recommendation will be selected. Sensitivity scenarios will be run for recommended option and results added to report. RPG Meeting

  5. Houston Import Study Options RPG Meeting

  6. Houston Import Study Options To Scurry To Brown Option 1 Option 2 Option 3/ 3A/ 22 Option 4 Option 6/ 6A Option 9 Option 12 Option 19 Option J1/ J1A Option J2 Option J3 Option DC Option DC2 Option E1 RPG Meeting

  7. Houston Import Study Update • Value of Houston Import project is going to be dependent on level of economic inputs • Have done extensive work to validate model against 2009 actual Houston imports • Measured flow on the four North-Houston 345-kV lines • Singleton-THW, Singleton-Obrien, Singleton-Tomball, Roans Prairie-Kuykendahl • Compared 2009 actual data (using PI Historian) to 2009 5YTP case for 2010 • Adjusted model by removing the Oak Grove plant and changing the gas price to 2009 actual prices • Adjusted 2009 data to take into account Singleton related construction outages • Updated modeling for identified cogeneration plants to better reflect operation of those units in recent history RPG Meeting

  8. Houston Import Study Update • Results showed adjusted 5YTP test case flow to be very similar to 2009 actual flow RPG Meeting

  9. Houston Import Study • Expectations • Addition of Oak Grove plant and higher gas prices will likely cause 2014 imports into Houston area to be higher than past experience • Next Step • Evaluate all options based on updated model • Simulations are on-going RPG Meeting

  10. Questions? RPG Meeting

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