The state of Global TB: the Problem, Progress to date and future challenges Paul Nunn, WHO

1. African Business Leaders on Health: GBC Conference on TB, HIV-TB Co-infection & Global Fund PartnershipJohannesburg, October 11, 2010 The state of Global TB: the Problem, Progress to date and future challenges Paul Nunn, WHO

2. Contents • The state of global TB • Goals, targets and achievements • WHO's role in addressing TB • Possible roles of business in addressing TB

3. Estimated number of cases Estimated number of deaths 1.8 million (range 1.6–2.3 million) 9.4 million (range 8.9–9.9 million) All forms of TB HIV-associated TB 1.4 million (15%) (1.3–1.6 million) 520,000 (0.45–0.62 million) 440,000 (0.39-0.51 million) Multidrug-resistant TB (MDR-TB) 150,000 (0.05–0.27 million) The Global Burden of Tuberculosis, 2008

4. West Pacific 20% Africa 31% Americas 3% SE Asia 34% East Mediterranean 7% Europe 5% Estimated TB incidence rates, 200895% of cases and 98% of deaths are in developing countries

5. Why TB is a business problem • 1% of South Africa's population gets TB each year • Other countries in Southern Africa about the same

6. The goals of TB care and control • Save the lives and health of those with TB • Prevent transmission of infection

7. TB Control Global Targets 2015: Goal 6: Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases Target 8: to have halted by 2015 and begun to reverse the incidence… Indicator 23: incidence, prevalence and deaths associated with TB Indicator 24: proportion of TB cases detected and cured under DOTS 2015: 50% reduction in TB prevalence and deaths by 2015 2050: elimination (<1 case per million population)

8. Achievements thus far • 36 million patients cured, 1995-2008 • 6 million deaths averted compared to 1995 care standards • Mortality reduced by 35% since 1990 • Cure rates >85% • 50% prevalence and mortality targets on track except Africa • MDG achieved: global TB incidence peaked in 2004 • But…. TB incidence declining too slowly, case detection stagnating, and MDR-TB care only now starting scale-up

9. 10000 1000 TB incidence 10x lower than today, but >100x higher than elimination target in 2050 Incidence/million/yr 100 10 Elimination 16%/yr Elimination target: 1 / million / year by 2050 Global Plan 6%/yr Current trajectory 1%/yr 1 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Year Full implementation of Global Plan: 2015 MDG target reached but TB not eliminated by 2050 Current rate of decline

10. WHO core functions in global TB control and research • Development of policy, norms and standards • Technical support to countries and its coordination • Monitoring & evaluation • Fostering partnerships including with civil society • Promoting research Focus on key priorities in each area given constrained resources

11. The global response: Stop TB Strategy & Global Plan • Pursue high-quality DOTS expansion • Address TB-HIV, MDR-TB, and needs of the poor and vulnerable • Contribute to health system strengthening • Engage all care providers • Empower people with TB and communities • Enable and promote research To save lives, prevent suffering, protect the vulnerable, & promote human rights

12. What are the challenges in 2010 to reach elimination? • Core TB business: quality variable and funding not secure • Case detection: still 63%, late diagnosis • TB/HIV impact in Africa: progress but not enough • MDR-TB in former USSR, China etc: very slow response • Health policies, systems and services: weak, no UHC • Socio-economic determinants and risk factors: how to tackle? • Non-state practitioners: low standards, irrational drug use • Communities: un-aware, un-involved, not mobilised • Research: finally new diagnostics, but underfunded

13. Innovative action needed in 4 spheres"Moving beyond the TB box" • Early & increased case detection • Scale-up TB/HIV and MDR-TB interventions • M&E and impact measurement • Engage all care providers and communities • Active screening among at-risk populations • Introduction of modern technology • Target new tools • Operational research and transfer of technology

14. Possible roles of business in • TB care, prevention and control • Work-force TB diagnosis and care programmes to increase case detection • TB screening in high risk workforce, eg mining • Corporate support of national or local TB control programmes • Private provision of diagnosis, care, prevention etc • Pathfinders in introduction of new, proven technologies

15. Possible roles of business in • TB and the development agenda • Advocate with government for political commitment to TB • Help mobilise civil society, including private sector • Fight stigma • Health policies and systems • Ensure regulated quality of drug manufacture, provision of private care

16. Possible roles of business in • Research and development • Develop new drugs, diagnostics and vaccines • Engage collaboratively with others in eg development of multi-drug regimens

17. Conclusion • Building on successes to date, WHO and the Stop TB Partnership are open to supporting business to do more to stimulate better TB care, prevention and control