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Foresight for Policy Design and Implementation

Foresight for Policy Design and Implementation. Outline What is foresight? When it is typically applied? What it can do for policy design and implementation? What are the usual rationales, impacts and functions? What does it look at?. Participants’ views on what Foresight is

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Foresight for Policy Design and Implementation

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  1. Foresight for Policy Design and Implementation

  2. Outline • What is foresight? • When it is typically applied? • What it can do for policy design and implementation? • What are the usual rationales, impacts and functions? • What does it look at?

  3. Participants’ views on what Foresight is • Methodological framework to plan and shape models of and pathways to the future, considering uncertainty • Sequence of methods to develop a vision of the future, as well as a strategy and system for implementation, monitoring and evaluation • Method to better understand and implement manners to increase performance and competitivity • A way (roadmap) to integrate the country within the EU (ERA) • Long term strategy development to build priority measures and influence the policy making process • A way to establish evidence-based and creative practices in policy development to produce commitment and ownership

  4. Participants’ views on what Foresight is • Tool aimed at improving policy planning to support decision makers to identify future directions in the medium to long term • A tool to analyse developments and support actors in actively shaping the future • To look ahead, beyond usual timescales, across disciplines • Ability to anticipate the future and to tackle challenges ahead • A tool that does not solve all the country's problems • Tool to support the creation of future strategies and policies related to all societal and economic sectors, such as S&T or RDI

  5. Analysing the future • What is Foresight? • Participatory, inclusive • Joint systemic understanding of the current situation and how it can evolve in the future • Alternative futures, medium to long term • Systematic and creative process to enable participants to jointly see what is possible, probable and preferred • Action-oriented, shaping the future today • Vision building process aiming at present day decisions and to mobilise joint actions

  6. Foresight building blocks citizens researchers policy makers stakeholders company managers unions associations NGOs consumers How things may develop? analysing, debating & shaping the future How do we get there? Where do we want to go? Where are we now? How can we prepare? in a structured way panels surveys scenarios roadmaps

  7. When is foresight applied for policy support? • Typical examples • Challenges faced by territories (regions, countries, cities, etc.): decline of key industrial sector, relocation, accession to EU, coastal flooding • Decisions that need to be backed up by stakeholders to be successful: priority setting for research, innovation, regional development • Decisions with deep or long-term impact: infrastructure, transport, healthcare reorganisation • Need to prepare for emerging phenomena with disruptive potential & high uncertainty: climate change, knowledge society, globalisation, demographic change, immigration, nanotechnology, hydrogen society • Need for enhancement of innovation capability

  8. FORESIGHT Legitimacy, transparency Understanding of changes New policy configurations Policy options Visions Responsiveness of the system New ideas Agenda-setting Policy definition Implementation Evaluation Learning Foresight feeding into policy design and implementation

  9. Foresight rationales and benefits Structured stakeholder dialogue on the future produces changes Insights About the future Attitudes Towards the future Relations With respect to future • Dynamics of change • New perspectives • Future risks & opportunities • Strategic options • System capabilities • Stakeholders views • Networks • Linkages • Common ground • Shared perspectives • Joint visions • Long term thinking • Awareness of challenges • Foresight & learning culture Being better prepared for the future

  10. 1 4 2 3 Foresight impacts Structured stakeholder dialogue on the future produces changes Insights About the future Attitudes Towards the future Relations With respect to future Changes in society for better policy implementation Strategic intelligence as a base for better decisions and strategies Changes in policy process for better decision making

  11. 1 2 3 4 5 Policy Better decision making Better decisions Insights Foresight Dialogue Actors Actors Better implementation due to better responsiveness of actors Actors Foresight policy functions

  12. What does foresight look at? Structured stakeholder dialogue Diagnosis Prognosis Prescription Debating what we would like to happen … Deciding what should be done … Understanding where we are… Exploringwhat could happen…

  13. Basic types of dialogue in a foresight exercise DiagnosisUnderstanding where we are… PrognosisForesightingwhat could happen… Prescription Debating what we would like to happen Deciding what should be done … • Each type of dialogue calls for: • specific objectives (guiding questions) • specific participants in the dialogue (type and level of participation) • specific methods structuring the debate • Need to tailor approach to objectives and intended impacts in each phase

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