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World Meteorological Organization (WMO) S evere W eather F orecasting and D isaster risk reduction D emonstration P roject ( SWFDDP ). Steve Ready. South Pacific ‘Window’. Kiribati. Solomon Islands. Tuvalu. Samoa. Vanuatu. Cook Islands. Fiji. Niue. Tonga. 150 O E to 150 O W,

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World Meteorological Organization (WMO)Severe Weather Forecasting and Disaster risk reduction Demonstration Project (SWFDDP)

Steve Ready


South pacific window
South Pacific ‘Window’

Kiribati

Solomon

Islands

Tuvalu

Samoa

Vanuatu

Cook

Islands

Fiji

Niue

Tonga

150OE to 150OW,

2ON to 25(30)OS

Back


Background to project
Background to Project

Initiated by WMO Commission for Basic Systems in 2005 to tap into global network of Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) and Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) products

Project is really a series of subprojects

1st subproject for south-eastern Africa started in Nov 2006

2nd subproject for South Pacific area started up as a Pilot on 1 Nov 2009


Pilot demonstration phases
Pilot & Demonstration phases

Pilot phase: 1Nov 2009 to 31 Oct 2010 completed

Only Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, Fiji and Samoa involved.

Full Demonstration phase: Nov 2010 to 31 Oct 2012 (at least!)

Kiribati, Tuvalu, Tonga, Niue & Cook Islands joined the

others.

Progress Reports: every 4 months. The next round of Country reports for period 1 July to 31 October 2011 due by 16-November.


Swfddp goals
SWFDDP Goals

Goal 1: improve the ability of NMHSs to forecast severe weather and wave events

Goal 2: improve the lead time for forecasting these events

Goal 3: improve the interaction between NMHSs and Disaster Management Centre Civil Protection Authorities (DMCPAs)

Goal 4: NMHSs to identify gaps and areas for improvement

Goal 5: improve the skill of products from Global Centres and RSMCs through feedback


Scope of swfddp
Scope of SWFDDP

Test the usefulness of NWP products – both operational and experimental

Severe weather associated with tropical cyclones

Severe weather associated with non-tropical cyclone weather systems

Guidance related to heavy precipitation, strong winds & large waves

Implement a CASCADING FORECASTING PROCESS


Cascading forecasting process
Cascading Forecasting Process

GLOBAL CENTRES

(UK, EC, NCEP (USA), JMA)

RSMCs

(Wellington, Darwin, Nadi) & regional support = New Caledonia & French Polynesia

MetConnect Pacific

NMHSs

(Solomon Is, Vanuatu, Fiji, Samoa,

Kiribati, Tuvalu, Tonga, Niue & Cook Islands)

Emergency management authorities, media & public


Responsibilities
Responsibilities

RSMCs

(Wellington, Darwin, Nadi)

NMHSs

(Solomon Is, Vanuatu, Fiji, Samoa, Kiribati, Tuvalu, Tonga, Niue & Cook Islands)

GLOBAL CENTRES

(EC, UK, USA &MeteoFrance)

  • Give initial interpretation NWP guidance for NMHSs

  • Provide additional NWP guidance (if available)

  • Liaise closely with NMHSs

  • Host Project website = MetConnect Pacific

  • Issue severe weather forecasts & warnings to the public

  • Liaise with emergency management authorities & media

  • Provide feedback to RSMCs & Global centres

Provide NWP charts

  • Deterministic products

  • Ensemble products: UK (24 members), ECMWF (51 members)



South pacific guidance spg charts 1
South Pacific Guidance (SPG) charts (1) Pacific

SPG charts represent the RSMC Wellington forecaster’s interpretation of the various NWP/Ensemble guidance for NMHSs to help in the production of their severe weather & wave forecasts & warnings

They contain Heavy rain/Strong wind/Large wave/TC information according to agreed criteria

TC information refers users to the latest TC Outlook or advisory/warning bulletin issued by RSMC Nadi, Brisbane TCWC, Port Moresby TCWC or Wellington TCWC

Before a TC is named, RSMC Wellington provides additional rain/wind/wave information in the TC Outlook zone.


Spg charts 2
SPG charts (2) Pacific

Updated around 0300 and 1500 UTC daily

SPG charts viewed on the landing page of the project website, MetConnect Pacific


Criteria for south pacific guidance charts
Criteria for South Pacific Guidance charts Pacific

HEAVY RAIN STRONG WIND LARGE WAVES TROPICAL CYCLONES

(non-TC) (non-TC)(non-TC)

≥ 100mm in 24 hours ≥30knots ≥ 2.5m north of 15⁰South now or later

≥ 3.5m at & south of 15⁰South

Confidence factors

Low (1 in 5 chance) or moderate (2 in 5 chance) or high (3 in 5 chance)


Training initiatives
Training initiatives Pacific

  • In-country visits (round 1):1st round completed except for Niue

  • In-country visits (round 2):To be carried out in 2012 before the 2012/2013 cyclone season


Achievements 1
Achievements (1) Pacific

One year Pilot Phase (involving just 4 Pacific Island Coutries) completed on 31-October-2010

Demonstration Phase (involving 9 Pacific Island countries) in fuIl swing

Progress reports completed by each country every 4 months, plus an overall report compiled for wider dissemination

One round of in-country training completed and a 2nd round pending in 2012

Interactions between RSMC Wellington and various countries especially for wave events has been very useful

Cascading Process – bottom part needs most work


Achievements 2
Achievements (2) Pacific

SWFDDP project management meetings held in April 2009 and at the end of the Pilot Phase, 1-4 November 2010.


Challenges 1
Challenges (1) Pacific

NMHSs (responsible for issuing own forecasts & warnings) taking a more objective approach to forecasting e.g. quantifying amount of rain

Verification of severe weather forecasts & warnings – requires NMHSs to take a more objective approach

NMHSs (reliant on RSMC Nadifor forecasts & warnings) using the project to help them providing input into forecasts & warnings for their country

Cascading Process – bottom part needs NMHSs to be more proactive with agencies they service


Challenges 2
Challenges (2) Pacific

Overcoming very poor NOWCASTING tools in Pacific Island countries to counteract absence of radar

SWFFDP acting as a test WMO GIFS-TIGGE multi-model ensemble products

Sustainability of SWFDDP – future funding for training & periodic development work on the project website, MetConnect Pacific


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