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China Meteorological Administration September 2005

WWRP/Beijing 2008 Olympics Forecast Demonstration Project Implementation Plan (Draft) XIAODING YU. China Meteorological Administration September 2005. A WMO/WWRP-FDP will be conducted during the period of Beijing 2008 Olympics. Focus: 0-6h Nowcast. Beijing 2008 Olympics: 8 to 24 August.

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China Meteorological Administration September 2005

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  1. WWRP/Beijing 2008 Olympics Forecast Demonstration Project Implementation Plan (Draft)XIAODING YU China Meteorological Administration September 2005

  2. A WMO/WWRP-FDP will be conducted during the period of Beijing 2008 Olympics Focus: 0-6h Nowcast

  3. Beijing 2008 Olympics: 8 to 24 August

  4. Beijing Position: 39.6 ° N, 116.7 °E Population: 16 Millions Area: 16800 km2

  5. Topography Mountains located to the northeast, north and west. The southeast is a smooth plain sloping to the Bohai Bay

  6. Venues The locations and areas of competition for Beijing 2008 Olympics Games

  7. Climate（August 8-24, 1980—2001）

  8. 2004/07/10 Torrential rain hits Beijing

  9. Goals • demonstrate how operationally tested state-of-the-art nowcast systems can provide an improved nowcast service in Beijing area where weather is highly impacted by complex topography. • provide the weather service for the Olympics ; • demonstrate the progress of nowcast techniques since S2000 FDP; • promote the application of advanced nowcast techniques in China and other countries.

  10. Participating Systems • Beijing-ANC (BMB/China and NCAR/US) • CARDS (Canada) • GRAPES (CAMS/China) • NIWOT(NCAR/US) • STEPS (BOM/Australia) • SWIRLS (HKO/HK/China) • TIFS (BOM/ Australia) • WDSS II (NSSL/US)

  11. B08FDP Content • Nowcasting • FDP products dissemination • Verification • Social and Economic Impacts Assessment • Training

  12. Nowcast For local thunderstorms: 0-1h nowcast of time- and space-specific storm tracks, intensities, precipitation, and accompanying severe weather such as large hails, wind gust and flash flooding. Forecasts updated every 10min. Resolution better than 2km. For larger scale precipitation system: A mix of expert system based method and NWP model is encouraged to provide 0-6h forecasts of precipitation, severe weather potential if possible. For near storm environments: High resolution (1-4km) NWP model is encouraged to provide 0-18h prediction of storm environments or directly the meso- ß scale weather systems, and associated precipitation, wind.

  13. Data and Infrastructure Available • Observational Network • NWP Models

  14. Observational Network Radar: Two in Beijing, four in surrounding areas Satellite: Chinese and Japanese, updated every 15min by 2008. Radiosonde: twice daily to four times daily. AWS: 80 now to 133 by 2008 Profiler: 3 by 2008 Ground-based GPS: 11 now, 14 by 2008. Lightening locating systems : 1 now

  15. Doppler Weather Radar in Beijing and Surrounding Areas

  16. Tianjin Hefei Installed in 1999 Installed in 2001

  17. Tianjin: 2002/07/01 Supercell with hails of 5cm diameter

  18. 7月1日19：01

  19. 7月1日19：01

  20. 7月1日19：01

  21. Radiosonde Network in China Beijing

  22. Current observational network in Beijing area (2004)

  23. Observational network in Beijing area by 2008

  24. NWP models NMC/CMA: Global T213L31 BMB/CMA: WRF with 3D-VAR (resolution 1-3km)

  25. 6 Time Table 2006.8: Preliminary trials of nowcast FDP; 2007.8: Second round trials of nowcast FDP; 2007.8: Training Course for direct users of FDP products; 2008.6-9: Formal B08FDP; 2008.10: International training workshop on nowcast

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