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Is the world overpopulated?. Is the world overpopulated?. Siberia. Is the world overpopulated?. Calcutta. Is the world overpopulated?. Africa. Congo. Kenya (Nairobi). Is the world overpopulated?. Why do Western European governments encourage more babies?. What does “overpopulated” mean?.

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is the world overpopulated3
Is the world overpopulated?

Africa

Congo

Kenya (Nairobi)

is the world overpopulated4
Is the world overpopulated?

Why do Western European governments encourage more babies?

what does overpopulated mean
What does “overpopulated” mean?

Ethiopia -

70 million - overpopulated

Germany -

80 million -

not overpopulated

(Ethiopia is 3x bigger)

starvation malthusian theory
Starvation? Malthusian Theory

Thomas Malthus - 1798

The world’s population is increasing faster than food supply.

(Food supply grows linearly, population grows exponentially.)

neo malthusians
Neo-Malthusians

Human suffering is occurring on a scale unimagined even by Malthus.

Overpopulation must be addressed now.

slide11

Questions -

How can we make sense of population changes?

How can we make predictions?

Why is the highest growth rate in underdeveloped states?

Why do the richest states have the lowest growth rate?

Answers -

Demographic Transition Model

demographic transition model
Demographic Transition Model

a theory which explains human population change

demographic transition model1
Demographic Transition Model

a theory which explains human population change

based on

  • idea that all societies want to transition from pre-modern to postmodern
  • experience of richer, fully developed states (Europe, US, Australia…)
stage 11
Stage 1

Pre-modern, hunter-gatherer stage

Birth rate

high

Death rate

high

What’s going on?

Why?

stage 12
Stage 1

Pre-modern, hunter-gatherer stage

What’s going on?

Why?

high IMR,

low life expectancy

stage 13
Stage 1

Pre-modern, hunter-gatherer stage

Total population

low, low growth rate

Examples

no states - only areas of Amazon, remote savannas in Africa, highlands of Papua New Guinea

stage 21
Stage 2

Urbanizing-Industrializing stage

Birth rate

high, stable

Death rate

declines

What’s going on?

Why?

stage 22
Stage 2

Urbanizing-Industrializing stage

What’s going on?

Why?

agricultural revolution & technical innovation → specialization & urbanization→ industrialization

stage 23
Stage 2

Urbanizing-Industrializing stage

Total Population

population explosion!

death rates drop,

birth rates remain high → youthful population

cultural lag = conditions change, but culture is lagging behind

stage 24
Stage 2

Urbanizing-Industrializing stage

Examples

states in Africa,

Central America

and parts of

Southeast Asia

(late Stage 2)

stage 31
Stage 3

Mature Industrial

Birth rate

declining

Death rate

declining

What’s going on? Why?

stage 32
Stage 3

Mature Industrial

What’s going on? Why?

  • More people in processing, manufacturing, and service than farming → urbanization → lower TFR
  • Improved health care, technology, education, etc.
  • Early Stage 3 very different from Late Stage 3
stage 33
Stage 3

Mature Industrial

More on lower TFR:

Urbanization = re-evaluation of costs and benefits of having children.

Educated women = more women working, more contraceptive use, fewer kids

Cultural lag is over

stage 34
Stage 3

Mature Industrial

Total Population:

young people % = older people %

Examples:

(most states are in Stage 3)

early Stage Three - India, Brazil

late Stage Three - China, Chile

stage 41
Stage 4

Fully Developed, Postindustrial

Birth rate

low, stable

Death rate

low, stable

What’s going on? Why?

stage 42
Stage 4

Fully Developed, Postindustrial

What’s going on? Why?

  • economic shift has occurred - most people work in service (few in manufacturing, almost none in agriculture)
  • technology and education still increasing, but can’t lower death rate any more
  • most people have 1 or 2 children, some have none
stage 43
Stage 4

Fully Developed, Postindustrial

Total Population:

older

TFR is low

Examples:

U.S., France, Japan

stage 5 does it exist
Stage 5? Does it exist?

Birth rate falls below death rate,

causing net population loss.

Will states disappear?

population pyramids
Population Pyramids

show population by gender and age groups

  • economic conditions
  • standard of living
  • future population
population pyramids classic pyramid1
Population Pyramids Classic Pyramid

population explosion!

Largest age cohorts = under 15 year olds

Why does this matter?

more dependents than providers

Which DT stage(s) have this shape?

What else can we predict about a population with this shape?

population pyramids column shape1
Population Pyramids Column Shape

stable population growth (low, even zero)

closer to replacement level→ more cylindrical in shape

replacement level = TFR of 2.1

Which DT stage(s) have this shape?

What else can we predict about a population with this shape?

population pyramids inverted1
Population Pyramids Inverted

total population is shrinking

TFR is under 2.1

Why does this happen?

Could a state shrink into nonexistence?

How could this be avoided?

population pyramids inverted2
Population Pyramids Inverted

Examples: Japan, Italy, Sweden

Why?higher cost of living in urbanized area

+ transition of children from asset to expense

= changed attitudes, lower TFR

different kind of example -

Russia and former Soviet states - inverted b/c lack of resources, jobs, health care, other services

population pyramids and the dtm
Population Pyramids and the DTM

Which stage?

How can you tell?

population pyramids and the dtm1
Population Pyramids and the DTM

Which stage? early- to mid-Stage Three

How can you tell?

population pyramids and the dtm2
Population Pyramids and the DTM

Which stage?

How can you tell?

population pyramids and the dtm3
Population Pyramids and the DTM

Which stage? late Stage 3, early Stage 4

How can you tell?

population pyramids and the dtm4
Population Pyramids and the DTM

Which stage?

How can you tell?

population pyramids and the dtm5
Population Pyramids and the DTM

Which stage? Stage 4

How can you tell? What else does this pyramid show about India?

population pyramids and the dtm6
Population Pyramids and the DTM

population momentum =

“snow ball” effect population growth after fertility stabilization (TFR of 2.1)

use the dt model to predict what will happen to
Use the DT model to predict - What will happen to...

...least developed countries? (sub-Saharan Africa, Middle East, Central America, most of Asia)

...countries further down development path? (China, India, Mexico, South America)

...countries that are fully developed?

(W Europe, US / Canada, Australia)

what causes exceptions
What causes exceptions?

religious influences

some states in Middle East and South America are maintaining high birth rates

state-sponsored policies

China - One-Child Policy - wealthy and growing middle class wants to have more children despite penalties

population quiz
Population “Quiz”

http://media.plaidavenger.com/pyramidmc/

John Boyer, Geography Professor

Virginia Tech

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