Conflict Prevention: policy objectives in development and aid agendas?

1. Conflict Prevention: policy objectives in development and aid agendas? Sakiko Fukuda-Parr CRISE 10 July, 2007

2. Conflict prevention as policy objective of aid Consensus policy objective is to reduce poverty and achieve MDGs through economic growth. • Reflected in literature on aid effectiveness • Reflected in allocation priorities • Reflected in evaluation criteria Conflict prevention as a policy objective of aid • As a means to achieving the MDGs • As an end in itself/for human security

3. MDGs: 65 worst performing countries are vulnerable to conflict

4. Main points • Not all development is good for preventing conflict • Aid has important influence on policies that shape development patterns and on parties who shape conflict dynamics • Social policies, economic policies and governance reforms can address socio-economic risk factors • Review of PRSPs shows lack of attention to risk factors • Adopting conflict prevention as aid policy objective would lead to different aid policies – allocation criteria, evaluation criteria, etc.

5. Development is not always good for peace and security Development can raise risks of conflict when it worsens: • Horizontal inequalitites • Environmental stress • Overdependence on mineral resources • Youth bulge, unemployment and exclusion • Neighbourhood spillover • state legitimacy Links: Economic policies, social policies, governance reforms

6. Development policy priorities: Nepal, Liberia, Guatemala • Review of national poverty reduction strategies in 3 countries Dec 06 – March 07 • Characteristics • unequal development and ethnic exclusion • Overdependence on natural resources (Liberia) • Environmental pressure/disputes over land and food insecurity • Weak state capacity and high degree of distrust of the state

7. State – citizen relations: common features in 3 countries from UN special rapporteurs • High levels of impunity • State security forces involved in crime. History of state sponsored violence • Violence against women • High levels of food insecurity • Discrimination against indigenous and ethnic groups • Low intensity conflicts, land disputes • Lack of human rights protection and gross violations eg human trafficking for prostitution and body organs

8. Development policy: Nepal PRSP • Nepal PRSP/5 year plan: • inadequate attention to employment creating growth • poverty reduction due to remittances not domestic growth • political restructuring emphasizes political representation of ‘excluded groups’ but not more equitable economic and social policies

9. Development policy: Liberia PRSP • Liberia interim PRS (Jan 2007) • priority to restoring traditional sectors (rubber, timber, minerals) as engines of growth • inadequate attention to agriculture and rural livelihoods • lack of attention to distributional impacts of social infrastructure development • relief efforts concentrated in Monrovia

10. Development policy • Guatemala 1996 Peace accord committments: budget analysis • lowest expenditures for education & health in Central America • lowest tax revenues in central America (9.5% GDP) • social allocation ratio 6.1% Guatemala; 18.1% Costa Rica

11. Donor policies • ‘Part of the problem’? – Nepal, Liberia • Donors and government in denial of risks, ‘turn a blind eye’ • Reactive rather than preventive • DAC principles: Reactive not proactive – emphasize ‘Do no harm’ • Disparate definitions of fragile states • Fragile state category based on development outcomes not underlying conditions