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The Wrong Crystal Ball

The Wrong Crystal Ball. Dr. Barry Blesser Blesser Associates. Modes of Discussion. *** Who Owns the Question? *** Pattern Recognition Language Vocabulary Paradigms Theories Speculations View from 1,000 ft vs 30,000 ft. Technology Business. Technology Paradigm Shifts.

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The Wrong Crystal Ball

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  1. The Wrong Crystal Ball Dr. Barry Blesser Blesser Associates

  2. Modes of Discussion *** Who Owns the Question? *** • Pattern Recognition • Language Vocabulary • Paradigms • Theories • Speculations • View from 1,000 ft vs 30,000 ft.

  3. Technology Business

  4. Technology Paradigm Shifts • WW II Technology Impacts Society • You Bet Your Company Development • Size is Everything • Redefinition of Barriers to Entry • Shortened Lifetimes of Products • No Low Hanging Fruits • Technology as Commodity • Quality as Discardable

  5. Classical Product Evolution • Concept Invention • Laboratory Prototype • Professional Introduction • Economic Manufacture • Semi-Professional • Consumer Model

  6. Paradigm Inversion • Sony-Philips on CD development • $600M for First Model • Goal of High Volume Immediately • $12 Incremental Cost • Total System Development • Partial Borrowing

  7. Acceleration of Life Cycles

  8. Misleading Growth

  9. Stages in Product Life Cycle • Innovation and product productivity vary during a thread’s life-stages: • InfancyBirth, rapid learning, uncertain future • AdolescentOthers follow trend, energetic innovation • AdulthoodMature product ranges, less innovation • RetirementMarket for technology declines • DeathOnly antiquities remain

  10. Innovation (Practitioner View) • Initially high rate of invention with few resources • Resource grow, but rate of invention declines • Resources decline with their related marketplace

  11. Innovation (Patent View) • Initially few patents, but with very wide scope • Quantity of patents grows, but scope narrows • Patents decline with their related marketplace

  12. Spawning of Child Threads Strong threads lead to many other threads Weak threads lead to only a few narrow branches

  13. Thread Life Times Some threads have longer lifetimes than others

  14. Thread Transitions • New threads start prior to peak technical and market performance of previous threads • Thread transitions are emotional challenges Market attractiveness Technology performance Pride Success Acceptance Shock Courage Hope Action Denial Mourning Rage Internal/Self Steering External Steering time

  15. HiTech Commoditization • Low Barrier to Entry • Low Cost • Similar Features-Function • Many alternatives • Low Margins • Automated Manufacture • Low Brand Loyalty

  16. Cultural Business

  17. Head Space Limits • Total Buttons in Household • Total Hidden Menus in Products • Learning Time to Master • Interest in Mastery Effort • Personal Payback in Investment • Competing Uses of Mental Effort

  18. Life Style Impact • Direct Substitution of Equivalent • Changes Family Dynamics • Competes with Other Activities • Economic Competition • Time Competition • Viewed as Consumable

  19. Business Model • Cost of Development • Product Life • Sunk Cost for First Sale • Engineering Risk • Barriers to Entry • Support Cost

  20. Redefined Quality Metrics *** Meets Customers Expectation? *** • Solves a Real Problem or Service • Defects Irrelevant or Accepted • Fits Reliability Model • Market Sets Expectations • Not a Technical Concept • User Interface Burdens

  21. Added Value Check List • Novel Functionality • Brand Name Recognition • Distribution Dominance • User Friendly Learning Use • Specialized Technology • Perceived High Value

  22. Example: Home Computer • High Sales Volume • High Market Penetration • Low Margins • Packaging Business Model • No Barriers to Entry • Too Complex to Customize • Pure Commodity

  23. Example: Home Theater • Dominates Listening Room • Connection Impact • Flawed Source Material • High Cost • No Technical Barriers • Branded, Licensed, or Patented

  24. Example: Home Network • Installation Complexity • Implies High Economic Cost • On-site Technical Manager • Large Scale • Mass Acceptance vs Niche Solution • DSL by Analogy

  25. Analysis Methods • Personal Experience Bias • Decade Bias - Cultural Evolution • Failure of Introspection • Cultural Patterns Dominate • Use Real Social-Scientists • Technology is a Subset of Culture

  26. Summary of Issues • The Customer is Part of the Culture • Cultural Drift and Patterns • Anthropologic Evaluation of Society • Human Limits to Introspection • Technology Waves not Linear • We Do Not Choose Our Decade

  27. The Right Crystal Ball An Interdisciplinary Approach

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