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Crystal Ball Panel

Presentation to the 7 th Workshop on Distributed Supercomputing :. Crystal Ball Panel. Thomas Sterling California Institute of Technology and NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory March 6, 2003. Focus Questions. What does the future hold for supercomputing? What do we want to see?.

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Crystal Ball Panel

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  1. Presentation to the 7th Workshop on Distributed Supercomputing: Crystal Ball Panel Thomas Sterling California Institute of Technology and NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory March 6, 2003 Thomas Sterling - Caltech & JPL

  2. Focus Questions • What does the future hold for supercomputing? • What do we want to see? Thomas Sterling - Caltech & JPL

  3. Shape of the Crystal Ball (1)timelines • Enabling device technologies • Supercomputer architectures and execution models • Programming models and languages • Compiler technology and runtime system responsibilities • Operating systems • Persistent storage, file systems, and external I/O capabilities • Reliability, fault tolerance, and failure recovery • Machine intelligence in machine programming and management • Resources: size, cost, power, time to program, time to solution • Breakthroughs in science, technology, commerce, and national security through computational advances Thomas Sterling - Caltech & JPL

  4. Shape of the Crystal Ball (2)driver factors • Hard Factors • Technology opportunities • Moore’s Law and when does it flatline • Alternative or avant garde devices (e.g. RSFQ, MRAM, Spin, quantum) • Innovative concepts in computational structures and paradigms • Costs of machines • Costs of programming • Mission requirements and level of urgency (the “counter-costs”) • Soft Factors • Mainstream market pressures • Legacy codes & languages • Government funding • Mushy Factors • Vision or lack thereof • Learning curve and reticence • Conservative culture • Disinterest and/or lack of will Thomas Sterling - Caltech & JPL

  5. An extrapolation of the Linpack Top-500 List of supercomputers where N=1 is the fastest machine, and Sum is aggregate performance of all. 10 Eflops 1 Eflops 100 Pflops 10 Pflops SUM 1 Pflops 100 Tflops N=1 10 Tflops N=500 1 Tflops 100 Gflops Courtesy of Thomas Sterling 10 Gflops 1 Gflops 100 Mflops 1993 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2023 Future or Fiction Thomas Sterling - Caltech & JPL

  6. Panelists • Al Geist, ORNL • Mike Merrill, NSA • Thomas Stricker, ETH • Bill Gropp, ANL • Bill Camp, SNL Thomas Sterling - Caltech & JPL

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