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Weather, climate and health

Weather, climate and health. Simon Lloyd London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. Health outcomes influenced by climate: likely impacts of climate change. Figure 8.3: Ch 8 Human Health, IPCC 4AR. Health outcomes influenced by climate: likely impacts of climate change.

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Weather, climate and health

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  1. Weather, climate and health Simon Lloyd London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine

  2. Health outcomes influenced by climate: likely impacts of climate change Figure 8.3: Ch 8 Human Health, IPCC 4AR

  3. Health outcomes influenced by climate: likely impacts of climate change • Impact on existing burden of disease • Various exposures of interest • At times, complex links Figure 8.3: Ch 8 Human Health, IPPC 4AR

  4. Health outcomes influenced by climate: likely impacts of climate change Long term changes in means Daily or weekly changes Interannual variability Extreme weather events • Impact on existing burden of disease • Various exposures of interest • At times, complex links Figure 8.3: Ch 8 Human Health, IPPC 4AR

  5. Health outcomes influenced by climate: likely impacts of climate change • Impact on existing burden of disease • Various exposures of interest • At times, complex links Figure 8.3: Ch 8 Human Health, IPPC 4AR

  6. Exposure – outcome relationships Epidemiology at individual level Exposure Outcome Cardiovascular disease Smoking

  7. Exposure – outcome relationships Epidemiology at individual level Exposure Outcome Cardiovascular disease Smoking • Weather/climate and health: • Exposure at population level • Pathway (often) indirect and complex • Impact moderated by vulnerability

  8. Climate change and health: Risks and Responses, WHO 2003.

  9. Climate change and health: Risks and Responses, WHO 2003.

  10. Climate change and health: Risks and Responses, WHO 2003.

  11. Climate change and health: Risks and Responses, WHO 2003.

  12. Types of evidence for health effects Spatial studies • Climate as an explanatory variable in the distribution of the disease or the disease vector Temporal studies • short term (daily, weekly) changes • inter-annual climate variability • longer term (decadal) changes in the context of detecting early effects of climate change. Health impacts of individual extreme events • heat waves, floods, storms, droughts

  13. Diarrhoea and average weather

  14. Diarrhoea and average weather Diarrhoea rates

  15. Diarrhoea and average weather Temperature Diarrhoea rates Mechanism: pathogen survival

  16. Diarrhoea and average weather Temperature Diarrhoea rates High rainfall Mechanism: water supply contamination (water quality)

  17. Diarrhoea and average weather Temperature Diarrhoea rates High rainfall Low rainfall Mechanism: use of unprotected water sources; reduced hygiene behaviour (water quantity)

  18. Diarrhoea and average weather Temperature Water and sanitation Diarrhoea rates High rainfall Malnutrition Low rainfall etc. Climate type Socioeconomic conditions

  19. Data Outcome Exposure Co-variates

  20. Data Outcome Exposure Co-variates • Diarrhoea morbidity • Children under 5 years • Low and middle income countries • 36 study sites

  21. Data Outcome Exposure Co-variates • Av. temperature over study period • Av. rainfall over study period • CRU TS 2.1 dataset • Underlying climate • Köppen climate classification

  22. Data Outcome Exposure Co-variates • Socioeconomic conditions • Water and sanitation • Setting: urban, rural, slum

  23. Study sites Lloyd, Kovats & Armstrong. Clim Res 2007; 34:119-27

  24. Diarrhoea cases vs average weather Average monthly rainfall and log diarrhoea incidence in children aged 6-11 months, showing country Average temperature and log diarrhoea incidence in children aged 1 year, showing climate classification. Lloyd, Kovats & Armstrong. Clim Res 2007; 34:119-27

  25. Regression results All models are adjusted for age group. Coefficients indicate the change in diarrhoea rate (episodes per child-year) for each: 10USD (in 2000 USDs) increase in GDP/capita; 10mm/month increase in average monthly rainfall; and, 1C increase in average temperature Lloyd, Kovats & Armstrong. Clim Res 2007; 34:119-27

  26. Regression results Diarrhoea ↓4% (1 – 7%) for for each 10mm/month rainfall ↑ All models are adjusted for age group. Coefficients indicate the change in diarrhoea rate (episodes per child-year) for each: 10USD (in 2000 USDs) increase in GDP/capita; 10mm/month increase in average monthly rainfall; and, 1C increase in average temperature Lloyd, Kovats & Armstrong. Clim Res 2007; 34:119-27

  27. Extreme events: coastal flooding • Spatial scale • WHO GBD regions

  28. Extreme events: coastal flooding • Spatial scale • WHO GBD regions • Event and outcome data • International Emergency Disaster Database, University of Louvain, Belgium. EM-DAT

  29. Initial estimates of impacts of extratropical & tropical cyclones, 1980 - 2007[EMDAT, 2008]

  30. Initial estimates of impacts of extratropical & tropical cyclones, 1980 - 2007[EMDAT, 2008]

  31. Initial estimates of impacts of extratropical & tropical cyclones, 1980 - 2007[EMDAT] 140 000 in a single event in 1991

  32. Interannual variability: ENSO • Human impact of natural disasters increases during El Niño • ENSO associated with infectious diseases in some areas, esp cholera risk and malaria epidemics • ENSO and seasonal climate forecasts may have public health use

  33. Interannual variability: ENSO • Human impact of natural disasters increases during El Niño • ENSO associated with infectious diseases in some areas, esp cholera risk and malaria epidemics • ENSO and seasonal climate forecasts may have public health use • Global disaster burden associated with El Niño over • a 30 year period (1964-1993) • Exposure: consensus El Niño years • Outcome: affected by a natural disaster

  34. World population affected by natural disasters Rate per 1000 people, 1964-93 El Niño years Possible El Niño years Non-El Niño years Bouma, Kovats et al. Lancet 1997; 350:1435-8

  35. World population affected by natural disasters Rate per 1000 people, 1964-93 • Strongest association between El Niño and drought (including food shortage and famine): • sub-Saharan Africa, South America, and South and West Asia Extreme rainfall and tropical cyclones: mixed effects by region Bouma, Kovats et al. Lancet 1997; 350:1435-8

  36. El Niño: a natural disaster cycle? Bouma, Kovats et al. Lancet 1997; 350:1435-8

  37. El Niño: a natural disaster cycle? 150 million people Bouma, Kovats et al. Lancet 1997; 350:1435-8

  38. Climate and respiratory health in children

  39. Climate and respiratory health in children Previous studies ↓ temperature range ↓ relative humidity range Asthma ↑ with: ↑ temperature in coldest month ↑ mean annual temperature

  40. Data needs and queries • How well does data represent climate at particular study sites? • Are there areas that are not well represented? • Can data be used to quantify elements of events? • E.g. rainfall in floods; extent, intensity & duration of drought. • How well are ENSO events and their associated impacts on climate events represented?

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