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Market situation & 2020/21 Outlook Cereals

Market situation & 2020/21 Outlook Cereals. Eric Willems Head of Sector Arable crops, sugar, fibre plants, animal feed. CEREAL WORLD BALANCE SHEET – IGC (23 MARCH). WORLD WHEAT BALANCE SHEET - IGC. Wheat export prices from 1/1/2007 onwards. US CBOT SRW wheat futures since 1/1/2010.

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Market situation & 2020/21 Outlook Cereals

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  1. Market situation & 2020/21 OutlookCereals Eric Willems Head of Sector Arable crops, sugar, fibre plants, animal feed

  2. CEREAL WORLD BALANCE SHEET – IGC (23 MARCH)

  3. WORLD WHEAT BALANCE SHEET - IGC

  4. Wheat export prices from 1/1/2007 onwards

  5. US CBOT SRW wheat futures since 1/1/2010

  6. EU Wheat futures since 1/1/2010

  7. WORLD MAIZE BALANCE SHEET - IGC

  8. Maize export prices from 1/1/2007 onwards

  9. EU-27 Simplified balance sheet

  10. Common wheat : Average yearly producer and market prices (2007 & 2008)

  11. EU intervention • Quantity available for the resale on the internal market in MY 2010/11 = 2.8 mio t • Quantities sold so far : 2.5 mio t • Quantities remaining: <0.3 mio t barley • Quantity available under the Most Deprived Programme in 2011 = 2.8 mio t • 882,000 t sold so far (>0.5 mio t in past week)

  12. Import duties (2004-2011)

  13. EU cereal import duties 1 April 2011

  14. MTF - Balanced EU cereal markets (mio t)

  15. MTF - Relatively tight market limit cereal stocks and exports (mio t)

  16. Thanks for your attention

  17. EU Commitments 2010/2011 (38 weeks) • Imports: 9.2 mio t (6.4 mio t in 2009/10; 8.7 mio t 2-years ago) • 1.7 mio t soft wheat (2.6 mio t), • 1.6 mio t durum wheat (1.7 mio t), • 5.2 mio t maize (2.0 mio t), • 520 000 t sorghum (4 000 t) • 25 000 t barley (91 000 t) • Exports: 21.7 miot (16.4 mio t last year; 22.8 mio t 2 years ago) • 15.9 mio t soft wheat flour inclusive (14.2 mio t), • 3.6 mio t barley (703 000 t) • 1.2 mio t durum wheat (492 000 t) • 806 000 t maize (868 000 t) • Net exporter: 12.5 mio t (10.0 mio t last y; 14.1 mio t 2 y ago)

  18. Cereals: (low) yield growth keeps the sector growing EU-27 area, yield and production projections – 2020/21 vs. 2009/10 - %

  19. Soft wheat market balance (mio t)

  20. Barley market balance (mio t)

  21. Maize market balance (mio t)

  22. Cereals prices: another blip or a new pattern? EU-27 domestic price projections – €/t

  23. EU Maize cumulated import commitments

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