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Dr Philippe Rochat Executive Director

Greener Skies 2008 ICAO & Emissions Trading. Dr Philippe Rochat Executive Director. Air transport’s contribution to climate change . Our carbon footprint is small but growing From 2% today to 3% in 2050 (IPCC) From 3% global impact to 5-6% in 2050 (IPCC) May limit air transport future

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Dr Philippe Rochat Executive Director

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  1. Greener Skies 2008 ICAO & Emissions Trading Dr Philippe RochatExecutive Director

  2. Air transport’s contribution to climate change • Our carbon footprint is small but growing • From 2% today to 3% in 2050 (IPCC) • From 3% global impact to 5-6% in 2050 (IPCC) • May limit air transport future • Unless we change our approach • From technical to strategic • With a long term vision • And with proactive communication

  3. Air transport’s climate change vision • Towards a carbon neutral growth, then eventually a carbon free industry • No quick or easy answers • But absolutely possible in the medium and long run • Look at technological progress over the past decades ! • Needs everyone’s contribution • Airlines, manufacturers, airports, ANSPs, tourism sector, governments, research institutions, etc.

  4. Towards a carbon-free industry Total traffic Emissions index Carbon neutral growth 300 BAU emissions Partial decoupling 200 Carbon free Technology 100 Infrastructure Operations Eco tools 0 Total emissions Time

  5. Air transport strategy - four pillars • Strongly endorsed by the ICAO Assembly in September 2007! • Technology • Airframe, engine • Cleaner bio-fuels, new energy sources • Infrastructure • Improve air routes, ATM & airport procedures • Aircraft operations • Drive for maximum efficiency & minimum weight • Economic instruments • Credits & incentives to finance technology R & D • Carbon offset & trading

  6. Emissions trading • Not the Panacea, but one part of the solution • Provided ETS is • Fair: vis-à-vis other sectors and transport modes • Open:aviation allowances insufficient to satisfy demand • Voluntary: for States to join whenever they decide+ • Global: to reduce/avoid competitive distortions • Combined with offsetting programs

  7. Current situation • No global scheme ! • EU ETS: the most advanced - and controversial -scheme • Draft legislation in USA • ETS under consideration in Australia, New Zealand, possibly elsewhere • Discussions within United Nations and ICAO

  8. Is ICAO up to the ETS challenge ? • No easy answer! • May depend on various factors • External factors • In imposing ETS to non EU airlines, Europe may either stimulate an ICAO solution or make it more difficult ! • If US, Australian and EU ETS are based on similar conditions, it may pave the way to an ICAO scheme • Post-Kyoto negotiations may lead to incorporating aviation & shipping into a global UN framework

  9. Is ICAO up to the ETS challenge ? • Internal factors • Is the Group on International Aviation Climate Change (GIACC) able to develop an aggressive plan of action including ETS ? • Is ICAO strong enough to exercise a leading role within the UN system ? • Industry factors • The 2007 ICAO Assembly focussed on the EU ETS and didn’t address IATA’s proposal for an ICAO framework ! • Good reason or excuse ? • Unanimity within industry in various regions ?

  10. Is ICAO up to the ETS challenge ? • I am in the camp of optimists • While my ICAO experience should rank me among the skeptics ! • The mess around the EU ETS should lead to a global solution • Through ICAO and/or through a global post-Kyoto solution • Provided airlines, manufacturers, airports, ANSPs (+ travel/tourism) speak with one strong voice ! • Either our aviation sector assumes its destiny or others will decide for us !

  11. Air transport was built by turning dreams into reality

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