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New measures of public sector output

New measures of public sector output. Andrew Mortimer Short-term Economic Indicators Branch andrew.mortimer@scotland.gsi.gov.uk. Background Why new measures are required implementation Public administration and defence Civil service and local authorities Defence Public order and safety

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New measures of public sector output

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  1. New measures of public sector output Andrew Mortimer Short-term Economic Indicators Branch andrew.mortimer@scotland.gsi.gov.uk

  2. Background • Why new measures are required • implementation • Public administration and defence • Civil service and local authorities • Defence • Public order and safety • Education • Public sector (to be covered later) • Further education • Higher education • Health & Social work • Health • Adult social services • Children’s social services

  3. Background

  4. GDP – weights and series

  5. Historical context • Previous assumption of non-market output = inputs • System of National Accounts 1993 / European System of National Accounts 1995 • Eurostat price and volume handbook (2001) • ‘A’ methods: multiple direct measures of output, quality adjusted • ‘B’ methods: Output indicator, not quality adjusted; or multiple quality adjusted input measures for collective services • ‘C’ methods: Use of single input volume indicators (e.g. employment) • ONS response to ESA95 – ahead of the game • Atkinson review

  6. Actions • Supply data to ONS for UK National Accounts. • Replicate productivity analysis for Scotland. • Ensure UK assumptions make sense for Scotland. • Consider inclusion in Scottish GDP system. • Consider policy relevance of new measures

  7. 24th October • New economic target makes Scotland/UK comparability ESSENTIAL! • Will introduce as many new measures as possible into the next release of quarterly GDP • Ideally quality-adjusted output • Implement simple output measures if they are similar to UK • May consider revised input-based methods if they are an improvement over current estimates. • Improve scope for further incremental improvements.

  8. Public Administration and Defence

  9. Public Administration and Defence7.2% of Scottish GVA

  10. Changes in grade structure of the Scottish Government 1999-2007

  11. Justice services • Currently not measured explicitly • New cost weighted activity measures: • Number of convictions: • High Court • Sheriff Solemn • Sheriff Summary • District • Social work orders: • Probation Orders • Community Service Orders • Supervised Attendance Orders • Drug Treatment & Testing Orders • Restriction of Liberty Orders • Social Enquiry Reports • Prisons: • Average daily prison populations

  12. Fire services • Currently using staff numbers • New cost weighted activity measures: • Fire response • 51 distinct measures • Type of residence / industry • Special services • Road traffic accident • Other • Fire prevention • No comparable Scottish measures available at this time (number of hours engaged in fire prevention and community safety) • Low weight • Use UK data in the interim

  13. Education

  14. Education 6.5% of Scottish GVA

  15. Further Education • Currently Using Staff Numbers. • Further Education Funding Council PIs • Student Units of Measurement (SUMs) • 40 Hours of Staff student contact. • Cost Weightings (13 broad course types) are also available. • Further PIs allow for future quality adjustment • Success and retention measures which depend on nature of course. (e.g. assessed or non-assessed.) • Comparable to current UK approach (but better).

  16. Further Education

  17. Higher Education • Currently Using Staff Numbers • Higher Education Statistics Agency • FTE Student Numbers are available and propose to use. • Complete alignment with existing UK measures • Future refinements: • Quality Adjustments possible in principle but will require further development • Candidate measures for research activity are less obvious. Potentially: • numbers of PhD’s awarded; or • deflated research grants and contracts.

  18. Health and Social Work

  19. Health6.2% of Scottish GVA

  20. Health services • Currently use 3 employment series • NHS staff; GP’s and Dentists • Direct measure of output still in development • Alternative approach: deflated inputs • 74 distinct measures (staff and supplies) • Deflated at source using unit costs • If used, will lead to minimum change to existing estimates • Final decision on approach to be confirmed

  21. Social services6.2% of Scottish GVA

  22. Social services • 10 new direct output measures • Adults • Care Homes (resident weeks per year) • Home Care (hours per year) • Day Care (sessions per year) • Children • Secure Accommodation (child-days) • Residential Schools (number of pupils) • Care Homes (number of children) • Adoption Services (number of children) • Fostering/Family Placements (number of children) • Assessment (deflated inputs) • Other Services (deflated inputs) • Weighted by relative cost of delivering each service

  23. Conclusions

  24. Conclusions • Significant methodological improvements to be introduced in next GDP release • Improved comparability with UK methods • Greater scope for future incremental improvements • Too early to gauge full impact • Further work over next 12 months on: • Direct output measures for Health services • Replication of UK measures of social security output • Quality adjustment of Higher & further education • Replication of future UK developments for Scotland

  25. Discussion

  26. New measures of public sector output Reserve slides

  27. Atkinson Review - History • 2003 - No 10 ! • Tony Atkinson – 1 Year’s commission • Interim Report – July 2004 • Final Report – January 2005 • 54 recommendations to improve the measurement of public services output and productivity • Implementation Strategy for Scotland – April 05 • Action Plans – updated quarterly • Working teams set up in Scottish Executive. • Established links with ONS UKCeMGA.

  28. Atkinson: summary of key principles • Principle A: the measurement of government non-market output should aim to follow a procedure parallel to that adopted for market output. • Principle B: the output of the government sector should in principle be measured in a way that is adjusted for quality of the service delivered. • Principle C: account should be taken of the complementarity between public and private output – e.g. NHS output increasing private sector productivity. • Principle E: measures should cover the whole of the United Kingdom; and reflect regional variation in the delivery of public services and/or data collection. • Principle F: the measurement of inputs should be as comprehensive as possible, and in particular should include capital services – e.g. imputed rent for buildings • Principle G: Pay and price deflators should be sufficiently disaggregated to take account of changes in the mix of inputs; and should reflect full and actual costs.

  29. Atkinson Recommendations

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