Don Scavia University of Michigan

1. NSF/WSC: Extreme event impacts on GL water quality:Predicting and managing nutrient loading in a changing Climate Don Scavia University of Michigan

2. Overarching Question What are the possible effects of climate-change-induced extreme events on water quality andecologyin the Great Lakes … … and what management strategies would be effective to address these changes?

3. Project goals Enhance understanding of impacts of climate-change-induced extreme events on Great Lakes water quality and ecology with Lake Erie as a case study. Develop framework for integrating human and biogeochemical controls on water quality, ecology and climate that transcends and integrates across social, economic, ecological, hydrological, and geosciences perspectives.

4. Modeling/Analysis Framework Climate model Quality-of-life hedonic model Agricultural adaptation model Land allocation model Governance systems (scenarios) Watershed model Lake circulation model Water quality and ecological response model

5. Extreme Event Impacts on GL Water Quality (PI: Michalak) Land use change and water governance (Lead: Moore) Hydrologic and ecological response (Lead: Scavia) Education and outreach (Lead: LaPorte) Regional climate and extreme events (Lead: Steiner) Moore (Co-PI) Steiner (Co-PI) Huntzinger (Co-PI) Scavia (Co-PI) Lemos (Co-PI) Posselt (Co-PI) Read (Co-PI) DePinto (Co-PI) Brown (Co-PI) Michalak (PI) Evans Beletsky (Co-PI) Kirchhoff Wright Best Bridgeman (Co-PI) Bryan Roop Read (Co-PI) Burnicki Michalak (PI) Williams Xu Laporte Bosch McWilliams Richards Anderson The Team Evans Confessor Wright Alameddine Here Also Speaking On phone Daloglu Cho Bichier Verhamme Kuhaneck Redder

6. Regional climate: Extreme events and hydrologic cycle feedbacks What are the land-surface feedbacks to the land-lake-atmosphere hydrologic cycle on climatological time scales? How is precipitation formationaffected by these land-lake-atmosphere feedbacks? How robust are numerical simulations of these processes?

7. Land-use change and water governance How will climate-induced changes in human migration and agricultural production impact spatial land-use patterns and land markets in the 21st century? How do different water governance systems use climate information and shape formal and informal institutions? How do they build capacity to respond to future climates? What are the opportunities and barriers to adaptive management regimes?

8. Hydrologic and ecological response How do changes in climate, land-use, and Dreissenids affect the amount of P reduction needed to avoid HABs? How doincreases in intense storms influence the DRP:TP in river runoff? Which changes in precipitation patterns most effect altered eutrophication patterns and algal species shifts?

9. Education and Outreach Promote teaching, training and learning by integrating climate and ecological research into K-12 science education. Broaden participation of underrepresented groups through a pilot program with the Ypsilanti New Tech High School. Develop educational and professional development resources to enhance scientific and technological understanding. Deliver benefits to society through the scientific impact of the research and direct involvement of watershed councils and government agencies in the project.

10. Project synthesis Synthesize across spatial and temporal scales and fields. Integrate changes in human behavior and decision making with changes in the natural environment. Integrate economic and social sciences with feedbacks to/from climate and ecological systems. Investigate re-eutrophication of Lake Erie, intersection of land-use and climate change, as mediated through changes in watershed processes and governance. Improve understanding of feedbacks among climate, social, and natural systems that must be considered in any water sustainability problem.