1 / 36

Overview of the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center

Overview of the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center. Lisa Holts. What we do…. Event Driven (rain, snowmelt) River Forecasts. Recreational Forecasts (River trends – Peak Flows). Support Flash Flood Program. Water Supply => Reservoir Management.

cfacer
Download Presentation

Overview of the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript


  1. Overview of the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center Lisa Holts

  2. What we do…. Event Driven (rain, snowmelt) River Forecasts Recreational Forecasts (River trends – Peak Flows) Support Flash Flood Program Water Supply => Reservoir Management Our Mission: Protection of lives and property – Enhancement of the nation’s economy WFO and RFC partnership Colorado Basin River Forecast Center

  3. Daily River Forecasts and Flood Forecasts • Collect and QC data • Run Hydrologic Model • Produce daily river forecasts • Manual forecast updates at • 6:30am, 11:00am, 4:00pm • Automated forecast updates at • 12:00 am • During floods… updates as needed/requested

  4. Hydrologic Modeling Hydrologic Forecasting Inputs/Outputs Reservoir Releases Satellite Data Precipitation Estimates River Gage Data Radar Data Snow Precipitation Forecasts Soil Moisture States Deterministic / Probabilistic River Forecasts Temperature Forecasts

  5. NOAA Mountain Mapper – Daily QC NWS

  6. Precipitation Input • Multisensor Precipitation Estimates – MPE • Gage • Radar • Satellite

  7. Gridsformat

  8. MAP

  9. Point Values (HPC) Basin Values Grid Values (Prism Scaling) Future Precipitation & Temperature & Freezing Level 5 days of QPF 10 days temperatures

  10. GFE • Increased leverage of GFE • View QPF differences between sources • Allows WFO to view QPF going into the model • Make adjustments in specify still • Future: will just use GFE and eliminate specify

  11. Example Display From NWSRFS- Interactive Forecast Program Simulated -* Observed - O Adjusted=Forecast

  12. ProcessingIFP Data Table

  13. Processing IFP Runtime Modifications

  14. Processing IFP Unit Hydrograph Modification

  15. Example: Hydrograph Plot CBRFC Web Site NWSRFS Segments 500 River Forecast Points 165

  16. Forecast LimitationsQuality of forecast depends on inputs Observed precipitation Future Temperature QPF Observed flow NWSRFS Model Model states Data availability and Future uncertainty

  17. Data sparse in Northern Arizona

  18. Forecast Result 2.00” 2.00” 1.00” 1.00” Flood Stage No Rise Forecast Limitations Future Uncertainty - Precipitation Amounts & Timing Are Perfect: BUT Wrong Basin Colorado Basin River Forecast Center

  19. Forecast Result 1.00 2.00” 0.50” 1.00” Flood Stage Peaks Lower Forecast Limitations Future Uncertainty - Precipitation Basin Is Right: BUT Forecast Amounts Too High Colorado Basin River Forecast Center

  20. NOAA NWS Forecast Result 3.00 2.00” 2.00” 1.00” Flood Stage Peaks Higher Forecast Limitations Future Uncertainty - Precipitation Basin Is Right: BUT Forecast Amounts Too Low Colorado Basin River Forecast Center

  21. Forecast For 24 Hours Result: Packed Into 6 hours 2.00 2.00” 1.00” 1.00” Flood Stage Peaks Faster & Higher Forecast Limitations NOAA Future Uncertainty - Precipitation NWS Basin Is Right-Amounts are Right: wrong intensity Colorado Basin River Forecast Center

  22. NWS River Forecasting SystemNWSRFS • Collection of models and processes • Three components • Calibration System • Operational Forecasting System • Ensemble Streamflow Prediction

  23. NWSRFS-Three Components

  24. Poorly Calibrated Basin Simulated Observed

  25. Much Better Calibrated Basin Simulated Observed

  26. Operational Forecast System (OFS) • Preprocesses observed and future data • Updates model state parameters • Provides short-term river and flood forecasts – 0 to 14 days out

  27. Interactive Forecast Program

  28. Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) • Uses historical precipitation, temperature and evaporation data • Uses current model states • Produces mid- to long-range probabilistic forecast (weeks to months into the future)

  29. Climate Forecast Adjustments • Daily RFC • Forecasting • Data Ingest • Data QC • Model Updating • Current Conditions • Soil • Reservoir Levels • Streamflow April-July Historical Time Series All Years of Record Mean Areal Time Series Precipitation Temperature NWSRFS Hydrologic Models Streamflow Forecast Time Series Time Ensemble Streamflow Prediction

  30. 71 72 73 74 75 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 Temperature Precipitation Ensemble StreamFlow Prediction Future Streamflow Today’s Conditions River / Res. Levels Soil Moisture Snowpack Past <- -> Future Time 1971 Start with Today’s Conditions - Create several possible future streamflow patterns - Based on historical climate.

  31. Supporting the Flash Flood Program • NWSRFS – Lumped 6 hourly model • CBRFC has recalibrated Arizona segments to an hourly time step •  blurred line when RFC can or cannot model event • For flash floods, RFC provides tools to help WFO decide when to issue FFWs • FFG, FFPI

  32. Land Use ? Soil type ? Vegetation type and density ? Fire activity ? Slopes? Flash Flood Potential Index concept Try to qualify the flash flood threat Highlight flash flood prone areas

  33. Water Supply Operations • Volumetric forecast for the runoff season • Essential to water managers (dam operations, water allocation, water planning, etc..) • Issues January through July • forecasters devote first 4 days of the month to water supply forecasting • 146 water supply forecast points • Spring is the busiest time for the RFC

  34. Water Supply Monthly water supply forecasts generated for seasonal volumes during winter / spring seasons

  35. Questions?

More Related