Crfs technical meeting lc operations update november 19 2009
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CRFS Technical Meeting LC Operations Update November 19, 2009. Topics. Operations Update Summary 2009 Projected 2010 Probabilistic Mid-Term Operations Model. Summary of Lake Powell and Lake Mead Operations 24-Month Study 2009 Water Year Projections .

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CRFS Technical Meeting LC Operations Update November 19, 2009

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Crfs technical meeting lc operations update november 19 2009

CRFS Technical MeetingLC Operations UpdateNovember 19, 2009


Topics

Topics

  • Operations Update

    • Summary 2009

    • Projected 2010

  • Probabilistic Mid-Term Operations Model


Crfs technical meeting lc operations update november 19 2009

Summary of Lake Powell and Lake Mead Operations24-Month Study 2009 Water Year Projections

In 2009, the Equalization Elevation was 3639 ft.


Published april 2009 projection for september 30 2009

8.23 MAF

Published April 2009 Projection for September 30, 2009

Apr-Jul Forecast =7.2 MAF

(91% Average)

Lake Mead

Lake Powell

25.877 maf

24.322 maf

1,220

3,700

Equalization Elevation

3,639

3637.1 Feet

1,105

11.9 maf

1092.0 Feet

9.5 maf

3,575

0.0 maf

0.0 maf

3,370

895

1.9 maf

2.0 maf

Dead Storage

Dead Storage

Not to Scale


Drama drama drama

DRAMA DRAMA DRAMA


Lake mead recreation area operational constraints

Lake Mead Recreation Area Operational Constraints

Critical Elevations:

  • Callville Bay – 1095 feet

  • Temple Bar – 1090 feet

  • Echo Bay – 1080 feet

Cross elevation 1095 feet in early June


Mitigation

Mitigation

  • Engineering Approaches – Offered use of Reclamation equipment and engineering staff to dredge at Callville Bay and Boulder Harbor

  • Operational Approaches

    • Lower Lake Mohave to keep more water in Lake Mead during June and July

    • Request to LC water users to move diversions later in the water year

    • Request UC Water Operations to release more water out of Powell in June


Mitigation effort outcomes

Mitigation Effort Outcomes

  • NPS used their own equipment and contractor for dredging work

  • CAP agreed to ‘stick to their schedule’ – risked $$$ giving up inexpensive power

  • UC agreed to release 40 KAF from Lake Powell during June 2009, previously scheduled for release in July and August 2009.

  • Lake Mead elevation on July 4, 2009: 1095.25 feet

  • Lake Mead crossed elevation 1095.0 feet on July 13, 2009


End of water year 2009

End of Water Year 2009

Lake Mead elevation end of WY 2009: 1093.68 feet

  • April 2009 24-Month Study projected end of WY elevation of 1092.04 feet

  • Downstream water use during WY2009 lower than expected

  • Water use moved to end of calendar year, into WY2010

  • Note – Intervening flows between Glen Canyon and Hoover were lower than projected – If water use had followed projections Mead would have ended lower than forecasted in the April 2009 24-Month Study!


Lower basin side inflows glen canyon to hoover in wy cy 2009 1

Lower Basin Side InflowsGlen Canyon to Hoover in WY/CY 20091

1Values were computed with the LC’s gain-loss model for the 24-month study2Percent of average was based on 5-year mean from 2004-2008


Water year 2010 projected operations

Water Year 2010 Projected Operations

  • August 2009 Most Probable 24-Month Study projected Lake Mead elevation on Jan 1, 2010 to be 1098.47 feet

  • ICS Surplus Condition to govern Lake Mead operations


Lower colorado region operations

Lower Colorado Region Operations


Lower colorado region operations1

Lower Colorado Region Operations


Lower colorado region operations2

Lower Colorado Region Operations


Development of new probabilistic mid term operations model

Development of New Probabilistic Mid-Term Operations Model

Motivation is to better quantify range of uncertainty associated with mid-term operations forecasts

Being developed by CADSWES graduate student in collaboration with Reclamation’s Modeling Work Group

Developed in parallel with the 24-Month Study model

Simulation horizon of 2-10 years

Input is range of probable inflows

First and part of second year based on CBRFC’s ESP forecasts

On-going research to develop forecasting techniques beyond 2 years (being done by student developing model)

Results expressed in probabilistic terms

Target Spring 2010 for first version of completed model


Crfs technical meeting lc operations update november 19 2009

Lower Colorado River

Operations

For further information: http://www.usbr.gov/lc/region


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