CRFS Technical Meeting LC Operations Update November 19, 2009. Topics. Operations Update Summary 2009 Projected 2010 Probabilistic Mid-Term Operations Model. Summary of Lake Powell and Lake Mead Operations 24-Month Study 2009 Water Year Projections .
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Summary of Lake Powell and Lake Mead Operations24-Month Study 2009 Water Year Projections
In 2009, the Equalization Elevation was 3639 ft.
Apr-Jul Forecast =7.2 MAF
Not to Scale
Cross elevation 1095 feet in early June
Lake Mead elevation end of WY 2009: 1093.68 feet
1Values were computed with the LC’s gain-loss model for the 24-month study2Percent of average was based on 5-year mean from 2004-2008
Motivation is to better quantify range of uncertainty associated with mid-term operations forecasts
Being developed by CADSWES graduate student in collaboration with Reclamation’s Modeling Work Group
Developed in parallel with the 24-Month Study model
Simulation horizon of 2-10 years
Input is range of probable inflows
First and part of second year based on CBRFC’s ESP forecasts
On-going research to develop forecasting techniques beyond 2 years (being done by student developing model)
Results expressed in probabilistic terms
Target Spring 2010 for first version of completed model
For further information: http://www.usbr.gov/lc/region