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World Energy Outlook: Key Strategic Challenges

World Energy Outlook: Key Strategic Challenges. Maria Argiri Economic Analysis Division. Energy Trends & Strategic Challenges Reference Scenario. 18 000. 16 000. 14 000. Oil. 12 000. 10 000. Mtoe. 8 000. Gas. 6 000. Coal. 4 000. 2 000. Other renewables. Nuclear.

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World Energy Outlook: Key Strategic Challenges

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  1. World Energy Outlook:Key Strategic Challenges Maria Argiri Economic Analysis Division

  2. Energy Trends & Strategic ChallengesReference Scenario

  3. 18 000 16 000 14 000 Oil 12 000 10 000 Mtoe 8 000 Gas 6 000 Coal 4 000 2 000 Other renewables Nuclear Hydro 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 1971 World Primary Energy Demand Oil and gas together account for more than 60% of the growth in energy demand between now and 2030 in the Reference Scenario

  4. World Power Generation from Non-Hydro Renewable Energy Sources World non-hydro renewable electricity generation increases six-fold to 2030, mainly due to wind & biomass

  5. Challenge 1:Security of Supply

  6. OECD Oil Demand Growth by Sector, 1999-2005 In the OECD, the transport sector accounted for almost all the oil demand growth

  7. World Oil Production Shifts Away from OECD Global oil production climbs from 82 mb/d in 2004 to 115 mb/d in 2030; OECD share falls from 25% to 12%

  8. Saudi Arabia’s Oil Production by Source in the Reference Scenario Based on its reserves and global demand trends, Saudi oil production is projected to reach 18 mb/d in 2030

  9. Iran’s Oil Balance in the Reference Scenario Iran oil production reaches 6.8 mb/d in 2030, but exports increase less rapidly due to strong growth in domestic demand

  10. Oil Production Outlook in Iraq in the Reference Scenario Oil production in Iraq is expected to reach around 3 mb/d in 2010 and 8 mb/d in 2030, provided that stability and security are restored

  11. Proven Natural Gas Reserves Gas reserves are concentrated in FSU and MENA regions – Russia and Iran together account almost half of global gas reserves

  12. Share of International Gas Export Growth between 2004 and 2030 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Russia Iran Algeria Qatar Qatar will account for almost one quarter of the increase in gas inter - regional trade between 2004 and 2030

  13. Challenge 2:Carbon Dioxide Emissions

  14. Energy-Related CO2 Emissions by Region Global emissions grow more than 50% between now & 2030, with developing countries’ emissions overtaking OECD’s in the 2020s

  15. 4 000 15 2030 12 3 000 2004 9 Pacific tonnes per capita Europe 2 000 million tonnes 6 2030 North 1 000 America 3 2004 0 0 China OECD CO2 Increase, 2004-2030 OECD CO2 additions equal to only three quarters of Chinese CO2 rise, but OECD emissions per capita still two times higher in 2030

  16. Challenge 3:Energy and Poverty

  17. Per Capita Primary Energy Use, 2030 Per capita energy use remains much lower in developing countries

  18. Electricity Deprivation In 2030, if no new policies are implemented, there will still be 1.4 billion people without electricity

  19. World Alternative Policy Scenario

  20. Examples of Policies included in the Alternative Scenario Power generation • Renewable energy (e.g., EU renewables directive) • Cleaner coal technology (e.g., China and India) • Transport sector • Improve vehicle fuel efficiency (e.g. strengthening of US CAFE standards, extension of Chinese standards) • Increased sales of alternative fuel vehicles and fuels (e.g., biofuels in Europe, Brazil) Residential and commercial sectors • Building codes (e.g., US) • Efficiency standards and labelling for appliances (e.g., India)

  21. 140 6000 120 5000 12.1 mb/d 500 bcm 100 4000 80 bcm 3000 mb/d 60 2000 40 1000 20 0 0 Oil Gas 2004 2030 Reference Scenario 2030 Alternative Scenario Oil/Gas Demand in the Reference and Alternative Policy Scenarios Oil & gas demand in the Alternative Scenario are both 10% lower in 2030 due to significant energy savings and a shift in the energy mix

  22. 40 000 35 000 2 30 000 million tonnes of CO 25 000 20 000 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Coal Oil Gas Alternative Policy Scenario Reference Scenario Global Energy-Related CO2 Emissions in the Reference and Alternative Policy Scenarios In 2030, CO2 emissions are 16% lower than in the Reference Scenario, but are still more than 50% higher than 1990

  23. Share of Non-Hydro Renewables in Electricity Generation, 2030 New policies would boost the share of non-hydro-renewables in global energy mix

  24. Summary & Conclusions • Projected market trends raise serious concerns • Increased risk for energy security • Rising environmental concerns • Persistent energy poverty • More vigorous policies would curb rate of increase in energy demand and emission significantly • Renewables can significantly contribute toward meeting these challenges • Urgent and decisive government action needed

  25. WEO 2006: Preliminary plan • World Alternative Policy Scenario • a “tool for change” - asked by G-8 • Deepening and broadening the analysis for developing countries • Impact of high energy prices • Impact of high oil, gas and electricity prices on energy demand and macro economy • Focus on developing Asia and Africa • Energy and Development • Focus on unsustainable use of biomass • Country in focus: Brazil (ethanol, bagasse in CHP)

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