Global Climate Policy Scenarios for 2030 and beyond. Juan Carlos Ciscar, Peter Russ European Commission, JRC, IPTS IX Bled Forum on Europe 7 March 2008, Bled. The Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (IPTS).
Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author.While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server.
Juan Carlos Ciscar, Peter RussEuropean Commission, JRC, IPTS IX Bled Forum on Europe7 March 2008, Bled
to provide support to the EU policy-making process
by researching science-based responses to policy challenges,
with both a socio-economic and a scientific or technological dimension
1. Policy framework
Objectives of the modelling/foresight exercise
2. The POLES model
Assumptions and Outcome
3. The GEM –E3 model
Assumptions and Outcome
March 2004 European Council request:
analyse costs and benefits of EU post-2012 climate policy
IPTS made part of the analysis of scenarios using numerical models
March 2007 European Council decision: 20 % GHG emission reduction in 2020 (compared to 1990); 30% if international agreement
Bali COP of UNFCCC
Global GHG emissions peak before 2020 and reduce to 10% above 1990 levels by 2030.
Global GHG emissions continue to decrease up to 2050
Multi-gas and introduction of Carbon Capture and Storage
Global Emission trading market develops gradually in power and energy intensive sectors
Non Trading sectors experience policies that lead to emission reductions
Carbon market decreases investment costs by a factor of 3.
The economic impact of internal effort and trade seem to be equitable
Size of bubble corresponds to the amount traded
Prices as fundamental signals for agent decisions
Interrelations between all markets/sectors
Baseline scenario calibrated with POLES baseline
Grouping of the countries/regions:
Targets calibrated to ensure similar emission trajectory as in POLES model runs.
Emission change targets compared to 1990
GEM-E3 and POLES are continuously updated
Linking POLES with a LULUCF model
Detailed emissions from agriculture
Link GHG mitigation models with air pollution models. For instance the Asia GAINS project.