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CLIMATE CHANGE POLICY SCENARIOS - BULGARIA

Promitheas-4 : Knowledge transfer and research needs for preparing mitigation / adaptation policy portfolios. CLIMATE CHANGE POLICY SCENARIOS - BULGARIA. L. Radulov, A. Nikolaev Black Sea Regional Energy Centre. BULGARIAN CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION POLICY (1).

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CLIMATE CHANGE POLICY SCENARIOS - BULGARIA

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  1. Promitheas-4: Knowledge transfer and research needsfor preparing mitigation / adaptation policy portfolios CLIMATE CHANGE POLICY SCENARIOS - BULGARIA L. Radulov, A. Nikolaev Black Sea Regional Energy Centre ATHENS

  2. BULGARIAN CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION POLICY (1) • Bulgaria is committed to EU 20-20-20 targets: • 20% reduction of primary energy consumption • 20% share of renewable energies • 20% reduction of GHG emissions • Bulgarian Energy Strategy: • 16% share of RES by 2020 (based on 9,6% share in 2005), of which 10% RES in the transport sector • 50% reduction of GDP energy intensity in 2020 compared to 2005 • increase of the energy efficiency by 25% by 2020 ATHENS

  3. BULGARIAN CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION POLICY (2) • National Energy Efficiency Action Plan of Bulgaria: • 9% reduction of the energy consumption for the period 2008 – 2016 • includes numerous measures (by sectors) to reach this target • estimates the energy saving effect and costs of the existing and planned measures by 2020 • National Renewable Energy Action Plan: • National 2020 target and estimated trajectory of renewable energy in heating and cooling, electricity, and transport • Includes numerous measures promoting renewable energy development by 2020 ATHENS

  4. BULGARIAN CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION POLICY (3) • Third National Action Plan for Climate Change 2013-2020: • 21% reduction of GHG emissions in 2020 compared to 2005 for the sectors covered by the Emission Trading Scheme (ETS) • 20% increase of GHG emissions in 2020 compared to 2005 for sectors outside ETS • Specifies GHG emission reduction measures and estimates their effects in terms of GHG reduction and cost ATHENS

  5. BULGARIAN ADAPTATION POLICY • There are only few studies assessing the climate change impact on forestry and agriculture • Adaptation needs are stated only generally in the 5th National Communication and 3rd National Action Plan for Climate Change • There are neither anational adaptation strategy nor any planned adaptation measures ATHENS

  6. THREE M/A POLICY SCENARIOS • Business as usual (BAU) • Optimistic (OPT) – ambitious M/A policies • Pessimistic (PES) –M/A policies with average ambitions ATHENS

  7. BUSINESS-AS-USUAL SCENARIOAssumptions • The energy intensity of all economic sectors remains unchanged • In households, the energy consumption is proportionate to both the number of households and the average household income • In the energy production, only the planned (as of 31.12.2010) changes are considered – increase of renewable energy capacities, shut down of existing plants, etc • High adaptation needs, but minimum adaptation measures ATHENS

  8. OPTIMISTIC SCENARIOAssumptions • Energy end-use efficiency: until 2020 the measures specified in the 2nd NEEAP (2011); in 2021–2050 additional ambitious EE measures • Gradual improvement of the efficiency of all power plants, except for NPP and HPP, and lower transmission and distribution losses • Change of the energy demand structure: e.g. gradual shift of the transport sector to electricity, reaching 65% electricity in 2050 • Change in the energy production sources’ structure: e.g. quick expansion of renewable energy, slow expansion of the natural gas share, substantial decrease of coal share • Low adaptation needs, but these needs are seriously addressed ATHENS

  9. PESSIMISTIC SCENARIOAssumptions • Additional M/A measures compared to the Business-As-Usual scenario, but less than the Optimistic scenario • The additional measures are limited to the most cost-effective ones ATHENS

  10. BS: ENERGY CONSUMPTION BY SECTORS ATHENS

  11. BS: final energy consumption by fuel ATHENS

  12. BS: Electricity capacities ATHENS 12

  13. BS: DISTRICT HEATING BY FUEL ATHENS 13

  14. BS – GHG emissions (CO2 eq.) ATHENS 14

  15. Energy consumption in the 3 scenarios ATHENS 15

  16. Electricity capacities in the 3 scenarios ATHENS

  17. GHG emissions in the 3 scenarios ATHENS 17

  18. Scenario evaluation ATHENS 18

  19. AGGREGATE SCORE OF SCENARIOS • OPT has the highest score • BAU has the lowest score ATHENS 19

  20. Promitheas-4: Knowledge transfer and research needsfor preparing mitigation / adaptation policy portfolios THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION ! L. Radulov, A. Nikolaev Black Sea Regional Energy Centre ATHENS

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