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Correlation and Regression. February 2013. GA Medicaid AA Study. Study & Abstract Graphic presentation of data. Statistical Analyses. Practical Example.

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Ga medicaid aa study
GA Medicaid AA Study

Study & Abstract

Graphic presentation of data.

Statistical Analyses


Practical example
Practical Example

Assume: You have two articles that provide conflicting evidence regarding the imposition of formulary controls for mental health drugs. One says prior authorization causes “gaps” in therapy. The other says when you impose restrictions drug costs go down as well as other services such as hospital, ER and doctor visits.


Outline
Outline

Conceptualize a Scatter Diagram

Pearson Correlation Coefficient

Linear regression analysis

Hypothesis testing of relationship between x and y


Measures of association
Measures of Association

Correlation and regression are the two most common methods to describe the relationship between two quantitative variables (x and y)

Correlation coefficient measures the strength of the relationship between the two variables, provided that the relationship is linear

Regression analysis is an equation that allows the estimation of the value of y for any given x.


Scatter diagram
Scatter Diagram

A good way to understand the relationship between two variables is by graphing them


Strength of the relationship
Strength of the Relationship

  • The correlation coefficient r measures how strong the linear relationship is

  • The relationship between two variables are not necessarily linear

    • When the relationship is not linear, r may not be an appropriate description of the relationship


Pearson correlation coefficient r
Pearson Correlation Coefficient r

The value of r can range from 0 (no linear association between x and y), and 1 (perfectly linear association)

The value of r can also be positive or negative

The closer the value of r to +1 and -1, the stronger the relationship is and the more nearly it approximates a straight line.




Coefficient of determination
Coefficient of Determination only!

  • Also referred to as the “r-squared”

  • It is always between 0 and 1. At the extreme value of 0, the regression line is horizontal

  • r2 measures the percent of the variance explained by your mathematical model (i.e. regression model)

  • The closer r2 is to 1, the better the fit of the regression line.

  • r2’s are evaluated using 2 sample t-tests with n-2 d.f.


Regression analysis
Regression Analysis only!

Although correlation tells us the strength of the relationship between x and y, it doesn’t allow us to predict the value of y for a given value of x

Instead of using r, we can use a linear equation to represent the relationship between x and y

yˆ = a + bx



Regression line
Regression Line regression coefficient.


Characteristics of regression line
Characteristics of Regression Line regression coefficient.

  • Always pass through the means of x and y

  • The sum of deviations about the line is equal to zero

  • Sum of residuals above the line equals the sum of those below the line

  • The sum of the squared deviations about the line is a minimum so it is the best fit

    • This is where “least squares” comes from


Hypothesis tests and regression
Hypothesis tests and regression regression coefficient.

H0: β1 = 0 (i.e., there is no relationship between x and y)

• H1: β1 ≠ 0

Determine α

Calculate t statistic with n-2 df

Compare to critical value

Reject H0 if t is greater than c.v.


Hypothesis testing
Hypothesis Testing regression coefficient.

  • If null hypothesis: β1=0 cannot be rejected, it means that a straight line model in x is not the best model to use and doesn’t provide much help for predicting y

  • If null hypothesis: β1=0 is rejected we would conclude that x provides significant information for predicting y

    • BUT there still might be a better model out there


Graphs a and b are regression coefficient.

examples when

H0: β1=0 cannot be

rejected

Graphs c and d are

examples when

H0: β1=0 is rejected


Logistic regression
Logistic Regression regression coefficient.

Common to see this used in biomedical research.

It is a special case of multiple regression where the dependent variable (the one being studied) is a discrete, nominal variable, for example 0 or 1, representing the presence or absence of some characteristic.

For example, you could do a study of long term statin use where the dependent variable (left side of the equation) is all cause mortality and the independent variable (right side) is length of statin use.

So the dependent variable could be 0 v. 1 for dead or alive.

The reference category would be patients who were alive at the end of the study and the regression result will be expressed as an “odds ratio.” In other words, is there a greater or less chance of being alive at some point in the future as a result of using the statin?


Logistic regression1
Logistic Regression regression coefficient.

So, if the odds ratio were .78 you could interpret this as a 22% less chance of remaining alive as a result of statin use.

Conversely, if the odds ratio were 1.22 you could conclude there was a 22% greater chance of dying as a result of statin use.

Odds ratio’s are assessed for significance using chi-square analysis, and p values are reported.

Note: Which way the percents go depends on which variable, life or death you set up as the reference variable.


Summary
Summary regression coefficient.

Correlations and regression are methods to measure the relationship between two variables

Regression analysis can also study the relationship of more than two variables, such as in the example we will walk through in class


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