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Modelling Climate Change and Cumulative Effects

Modelling Climate Change and Cumulative Effects. Colin Daniel Apex Resource Management Solutions www.apexrms.com. What is a Model?. Conceptual Models. Development can disturb caribou. “Representation of a particular thing, idea, condition”. 2. Quantitative Models.

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Modelling Climate Change and Cumulative Effects

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  1. Modelling Climate Change and Cumulative Effects Colin Daniel Apex Resource Management Solutions www.apexrms.com

  2. What is a Model? • Conceptual Models Development can disturb caribou “Representation of a particular thing, idea, condition” 2. Quantitative Models

  3. How Do We Build Models?

  4. Past Integrated Modelling Projects • Modeling Sustainability of Arctic Communities (2004) • How will climate changeand oil development affect the availability of caribou to villages surrounding the PCH? • Modelling Effects of Development on the Bathurst Caribou Herd (2009-?) • What are the potential effects of mine development and climate change on the summer range of the Bathurst herd?

  5. Conceptual Model

  6. Conceptual Model

  7. Conceptual Model

  8. Conceptual Model

  9. Conceptual Model

  10. Modelling Bathurst Summer Range • Activities Considered: • Active Mines • Mineral Exploration Activities • Outfitter Camps • Scenarios Considered: • 3 levels of development (None, Current, 2X) • 3 climate scenarios (average, best, worst)

  11. Model Integration

  12. Preliminary Results • Demonstrated approach possible

  13. Preliminary Results • Demonstrated approach possible • Limited effect on fall body weight due to displacement and activity change

  14. Models Integration

  15. Preliminary Results • Demonstrated approach possible • Limited effect on fall body weight due to displacement and activity change • Effect of climate on fall body weight

  16. Preliminary Results • Demonstrated approach possible • Limited effect on fall body weight due to displacement and activity change • Effect of climate on fall body weight • Identified key data gaps: • Activity budgets • Summer range body condition data • Biomass estimates

  17. Why Build Quantitative Models? • Integrate understanding • Explicit assumptions • Quantify predictions • “What-if?” analysis • Identify data needs and knowledge gaps • Prioritize future research & monitoring • Require resources & expertise!

  18. June Diets

  19. June a critical time for caribou • Calving • Peak energy and protein demands • Most rapid change in plant growth • Major shifts in diet • Early calf survival linked to timing green-up of plants • Cows and calves most sensitive to disturbance

  20. Griffiths et al.. • Russell et al.. • Manseau.. • Parrett..

  21. June - Energy and protein intake • Timing of • peak lactation – • 10 days after calving

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