Modelling cumulative marine effects for ocean governance
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Modelling Cumulative Marine Effects for Ocean Governance. Michael Sutherland, Yanlai Zhao, Dan Lane and Wojtek Michalowski, School of Management University of Ottawa, Rob Stephenson and Fred Page, Department of Fisheries and Oceans, St. Andrews Biological Station.

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Modelling cumulative marine effects for ocean governance

Modelling Cumulative Marine Effects for Ocean Governance

Michael Sutherland, Yanlai Zhao, Dan Lane and Wojtek Michalowski,

School of Management

University of Ottawa,

Rob Stephenson and Fred Page,

Department of Fisheries and Oceans,

St. Andrews Biological Station

OMRN Conference 2005, Ottawa


Outline

Outline

  • Methodology

  • GIS Processing

  • Yield Valuation

  • Issues

  • Conclusions


Modelling cumulative marine effects for ocean governance 1316730

VALUE SYSTEM

Information

Information

Rights

Individuals

Individuals

Restrictions

Groups

Groups

Responsibilities

Organizations

Organizations

Information

ECONOMY

Physical

Environment

SOCIETY

POLITY


Modelling cumulative marine effects for ocean governance 1316730

An Aquaculture Case Study

Grand Manan, NB


Modelling cumulative marine effects for ocean governance 1316730

Participants’

Perspectives from Pairwise Comparisons

Goal

Resources, Habitat,

Effluent, Activities

Herring, Scallops, Lobster, Urchins

Salt Marshes, Rockweed

Chemicals

Weirs, Traps, Drags, Recreation

Site

Evaluation

Methodology and Model Summary

Marine Site ComponentsMulticriteria Analysis (Goal Hierarchy)

Site Options: GIS Evaluations (participant independent)

as function of the spatial-temporal inventory


Modelling cumulative marine effects for ocean governance 1316730

Spatial overlay process

Study area spatial and thematic datasets

Yield valuations per dataset for entire study area

Pair-wise processing of component data

Yield valuation for layer a + layer b

Yield valuation for layer a + layer c

Yield valuation for layer b + layer c

Overall yield valuation of selected area of interest for use in decision support

Estimation of Cumulative Effects

Select area of interest

+


Modelling cumulative marine effects for ocean governance 1316730

Lobster

Herring:

Day/Night

Habitat

Scallops

Rockweed

Effluent

Urchins

Salt

Marshes

Chemical A

Benthic

Structures

Current

Flow

Chemical B

Chemical C

Ecosystem Components Represented by Thematic Layers

Socioeconomic Activities

Biological/Ecosystem Resources

Herring Weirs

Scallop

urchin

drags

Lobster traps

Fish Farm Sites

Recreation


Modelling cumulative marine effects for ocean governance 1316730

Potential for Ecosystem Component Interaction


Modelling cumulative marine effects for ocean governance 1316730

Ecosystem Interaction Rules


Modelling cumulative marine effects for ocean governance 1316730

Yield Evaluation of Overlapping

Components

B

A

AB

ABC

C

BC

AC

pairwise overlapping

Yield A’ Yield A + Yield A(B) + Yield A(C) + Yield A(BC)


Modelling cumulative marine effects for ocean governance 1316730

Yield Evaluation of Overlapping

Components

IE(1) = a(2 on 1) * Area of overlapping polygon (2 on1)


Modelling cumulative marine effects for ocean governance 1316730

Selected Area with Overlapping Layers


Modelling cumulative marine effects for ocean governance 1316730

Selected Area with Overlapping Layers


Modelling cumulative marine effects for ocean governance 1316730

Selected Area with Overlapping Layers


Modelling cumulative marine effects for ocean governance 1316730

Spatial overlay process

Study area spatial and thematic datasets

Yield valuations per dataset for entire study area

Pair-wise processing of component data

Yield valuation for layer a + layer b

Yield valuation for layer a + layer c

Yield valuation for layer b + layer c

Overall yield valuation of selected area of interest for use in decision support

Estimation of Cumulative Effects

Select area of interest

+


Analytical hierarchy process ahp

Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP)

  • Construction of the hierarchy model

  • Pairwise comparison

  • Synthesis of the priorities and ranking of the alternatives

  • Expert Choice 11 Group Decisions (EC11)

    AHP computer implementation software


Modelling cumulative marine effects for ocean governance 1316730

Hierarchical problem formulation:

Participant dependent/Site independent

Level 1

Goal

Ecosystem Goal

Level 2

components

Resources

Habitat

Effluents

Activities

Level 3

Sub-Components

R1

R2

R3

R4

R5

H1

H2

H3

H4

A5

C1

C2

C3

A1

A2

A3

A4

Level 4

Alternatives

Alternative 1

Alternative 2


5 participant groups

5 Participant Groups

  • Local Communities

  • Federal Scientists

  • Industrial Organizations

  • Non-governmental Organizations

  • Provincial Governments


Modelling cumulative marine effects for ocean governance 1316730

0.6

0.5

0.4

R

H

0.3

E

0.2

A

0.1

0

Local

Federal

Industrial

NGO

Provincial

Communities

Scientists

Organizations

Governments

Attributed weights of the 5 participants on the 4 components: R, H, E and A (Resources, Habitat, Effluents and Activities)


Ranked results of selected area by different participants

Provincial Governments

NGO

Industrial Organizations

Federal Scientists

Local Communities

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

Area1

Area2

Ranked Results of Selected Area by Different Participants


Issues and conclusions

Issues and Conclusions

  • The model design is in development but feasible

  • Access to and availability of real-world data

  • Access to reliable data of appropriate quality for further analysis

  • The nature of stakeholder relationships that facilitates data sharing

  • The stochastic nature of some data elements in the marine environment

  • Establishing a means of scoring and ranking the multidimensional yield results for decision-making


Modelling cumulative marine effects for ocean governance 1316730

Network Centres of Excellence

www.aquanet.lixar.net


Modelling cumulative marine effects for ocean governance1

Modelling Cumulative Marine Effects for Ocean Governance

Michael Sutherland, Yanlai Zhao, Dan Lane and Wojtek Michalowski,

School of Management

University of Ottawa,

Rob Stephenson and Fred Page,

Department of Fisheries and Oceans,

St. Andrews Biological Station

OMRN Conference 2005, Ottawa


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