Part 2 Model Creation

1. Part 2Model Creation

2. Log into NAPPFAST at www.nappfast.org . Then select the Nappfast tool.

3. From the ‘Action’ drop down menu you can: Edit: Make changes to an existing model. Add: Create a new model. Rename: Change the name of an existing model. Delete: Delete an existing model. Copy: Copy an existing model, give it a new name, and create a new model.

4. Template for the model. The dates when the model will collect data. The variables of the model.

5. Values differentiating between infection and non-infection. Values in the legend indicating number of accumulative days where conditions will favor the development of the pest. One can test the model. Name to be displayed on the maps and/or any comments about the construction of the model. Hit ‘Save’ to make any changes to the model

6. NAPPFAST MAPVIEWImportant Points • What models are used to make the predictive maps in NAPPFAST? • Degree Day • Infection • Generic • Climate matching

7. Temp. Dev. Degree Day Model: Theory • “Phenology and development of most organisms follow a temperature dependent time scale” (Allen 1976) • Attempts to integrate temperature and time started 250 + years ago • Development is widely believed to follow a sigmoid shape

8. Degree Day Model: Theory • Organisms have base developmental temperature- minimum temperature below which no development occurs • Organisms have set number of units to complete development - physiological time: measured in developmental units (DU) or degree days (DD) • Parameters established from lab or field studies

9. Degree Day Model • Example: Light Brown Apple Moth base temperature 7.5 C requires ~640 DD to complete development (egg, larvae, pupae, adult to egg) • Degree days are typically calculated from average of high and low temperature for a 24 hour period above the base temperature

10. Degree Day Model Light Brown Apple Moth: Base temperature 7.5 C 640 DD for generation development If average daily temp was 11C: 3.5 DD (11-7.5) are accumulated and it would take 182 days at that temperature to complete development If average daily temp was 20C: 12.5 DD (20-7.5) are accumulated and it would take 51.2 days at that temperature to complete development

11. P. japonica general information • Univoltine- one generation per year • Overwinters typically as a third instar larvae

12. Insect Development Database

13. Model Parameters

17. Graphing tools

18. Disease Infection Model • Plant pathologist describe interactions between pathogen, host and environmental conditions as the disease triangle.

19. Infection is often the rate limiting step in an epidemic because it requires moisture which is often limited in terrestrial environments Infection can be modeled by a temperature /moisture response function - a mathematical function that describes the response of an organism to temperature and moisture Disease infection model

20. Disease Infection Parameters • Tmin = Min. temperature for infection, oC, • Tmax = Max. temperature for infection, oC, • Topt = Opt. temperature for infection, oC, • Wmin = Minimum wetness duration requirement, h Parameters established in laboratory studies

21. Temperature response function Low Topt High Topt

22. Temperature moisture response function Low Topt High Wmin High Topt Low Wmin

23. Sudden Oak Death, Phytophthora ramorum • Fungal disease in cool wet weather. • Currently in Western US: California and Oregon Source Ventana Wilderness Society

24. Model Parameters • Temperature requirement 3-28 C, 20 C optimum (Werres, 2001; Orlikowski, 2002). • Moisture requirement 12 hours for zoospore infection (Huberli,2003) • Model description Unpublished infection model uses Wang et al. (1998 ) temperature response function scaled to a wetness duration requirement.

27. Multi-function Model • Allows for construction of many different models using simple logical and mathematical equations: (X>A, X and Y, X or Y, X and (Y or Z), X≥A and X≤B, A* exp(B * X), etc.) • Some examples used to date are: temperature exclusions (high and or low lethal temperatures), frost free days, and emergence dates